Which way will Barclays shares break next?
Last week was a bad one for this high street lender while rivals did well. Independent analyst Alistair Strang runs his chart software to see what might happen next.
3rd August 2026 07:29
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
They say a week is a long time in politics. In the stock market — and for Barclays (LSE:BARC) in particular — the three weeks since our last look at the share price have felt like a lifetime.
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The shares briefly hinted at a bullish breakout before immediately reversing course the following day, generating what amounted to a “cancel” signal as the price was manipulated (or gapped) below the blue line on the chart. That is not an encouraging development.
There is now a growing likelihood that a move below 504p will lead to a test of 453p. Should that level fail to hold, our longer-term secondary target remains 420p, although our confidence in that outcome is lower. For anyone considering a short position, a break below 486p would represent a more prudent point at which to light the fuse.
The recent price action reminds us of the new series of Star Trek: Strange New Worlds. Episode one featured spectacular writing, whereas episode two, for this viewer at least, was a major disappointment. It was bad enough that we switched off halfway through. If Barclays’ price action on 27 July was episode one, then the move on 30 July was undoubtedly episode two, completely overturning our expectations for the near-term outlook.
On a more positive note, perhaps Barclays has ambitions to emulate the new Supergirl film. Should Barclays decide to embrace its inner superhero, a move above 521p would be expected to trigger an advance towards 528.5p. A decisive break above 528.5p — or, preferably, a daily close above that level — would open the door to our longer-term target of 584p, with a more ambitious third target sitting at 639p.
For now, however, the chart suggests Barclays is playing a game of “Will I Stay or Will I Go?” It wouldn’t take much trading pressure to break free in either direction, and the next decisive move could set the tone for the weeks ahead.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Important: Trends and Targets charts only incorporate official share count consolidations, ignoring rights issues where investors have a choice as to whether to participate.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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