The chart outlook for Fresnillo and the gold price
Independent analyst Alistair Strang has run his bespoke charting software to see if the gold and silver miner can reverse the sharp decline from January's peak.
8th July 2026 07:26
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) is the world's largest silver producer and also holds the accolade of being one of Mexico’s largest gold miners. In addition to their Mexican operations, they also dig holes in Canada, Chile, and Peru. Despite the visual similarities between the charts for both FRES and gold, the rate of pullback from highs earlier this year differs.
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Gold has reversed around 26% from its highs, whereas Fresnillo has retreated 38% from its January peak. Regardless, it feels like there’s a broad expectation for gold itself to enter a meltdown cycle to an initial $3,600 an ounce and maybe even a bottom and hopeful bounce just above the $3,042 level.
The price of gold needs to exceed $4,300 to force us to revisit these numbers, surprise gains suddenly looking possible.
For Fresnillo, below 2,670p risks triggering ongoing reversals down to an initial 2,267p with our secondary, if broken, ideally calculating at 1,459p and hopefully a solid bounce. In fact, we’d hope for a bounce before such a calculation makes itself known. From our perspective, the share price needs above 3,300p to nullify the downward potentials.
In the event the share price finds an excuse to exceed 3,300p, we’re able to calculate an initial ambition at 3,662p with our secondary, if bettered, a longer-term 4,019p. This secondary is liable to be a really big deal, dropping the share value in a zone where a future 4,910p calculates as a reasonable hope, along with a new all-time high for the share price.
Unfortunately, we’re fairly comfortable with the idea Fresnillo shall continue to head in the opposite direction from many FTSE 100 constituents, suspecting an eventual visit to the blue downtrend on the chart, a line which dates back to 2011.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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