Which way will NatWest shares go next?
Following a difficult end to the week for the UK bank sector, independent analyst Alistair Strang reviews this high street lender's recovery potential.
2nd November 2026 07:33
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
We utterly hate being put in the situation of describing a retail bank share movements as “interesting", but NatWest Group (LSE:NWG)'s share price is becoming interesting, unfortunately for some of the wrong reasons.
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When we reviewed NatWest three weeks ago, we proposed a drop target of 577p and, obviously, the share price has managed to settle around such a level. It broke below our target during Friday, hitting 575p then managed to close the day at 579p. Our drop target level, exactly between the two price levels, must at least permit us awarding ourselves a “smarty pants” award.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
A negative NatWest view
Due to the share breaking below our drop target intraday, there is obviously the risk of further softening of the price. The situation now has a suggestion below 575p risks triggering further reversal down to an initial 561p.
In the event such a price level breaks, our longer-term secondary – and hopefully a proper trampoline level – calculates down at 512p. The visuals associated with such reversal bring optimism, the secondary 512p target level meeting the red uptrend since 2023. In addition, there is the coincidence of matching the green lows of 2026 and 2025 and allowing folk to embrace the notion of “an important price level” which, in itself, is usually capable of provoking buying pressure.
A positive NatWest view
There’s a relatively unlikely risk that current reversals shall prove short-lived but, when we judge by the feel of the wider markets internationally, above 594p should prove to be the first signal the drop has been fake. In such an event, this has the potential of triggering movement to an initial 630p with our longer-term secondary, if beaten, at 660p and the need to revisit our calculations.
And in summary?
At present, NatWest is being served up as an obvious drop target and we hate being spoon fed such a scenario. The market can be guilty of taking advantage of this sort of situation, the near 9% drop on Friday feeling a bit contrived to inspire some panic. As a result, we shall not be aghast to see the share price head upward, if only due to the comedy of watching regret from those who ditched shares once Friday’s initial drop kicked in.
Watching for the share price to exceed our 594p anytime soon may prove to be a surprise and, in the event of the share discovering an excuse to close above Blue on the chart below, presently 670p, it shall be difficult for the market to restrain some quite strong future potentials.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Important: Trends and Targets charts only incorporate official share count consolidations, ignoring rights issues where investors have a choice as to whether to participate.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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