ii view: cyclical play PageGroup surprises to the upside
Pursuing self-help initiatives and with geographical growth improving in more regions. Buy, sell, or hold?
13th July 2026 12:45
by Keith Bowman from interactive investor
Second-quarter trading update to 30 June
- Gross profit down 0.2% to £197.6 million
- Net debt of £7 million, unchanged from late March
Chief executive Nicholas Kirk said:
"The Group produced a good performance in Q2, despite ongoing challenging market conditions. We saw continued growth in Asia Pacific and the Americas, as well as a return to growth in Q2 in Southern Europe.
"Whilst we have seen improvement and signs of a normalisation in trading in a number of our markets, there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the outlook for the rest of the year.”
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ii round-up:
PageGroup (LSE:PAGE) today detailed profit that beat City forecasts, with the global recruiter maintaining its estimate for full-year profits.
Second-quarter gross profit fell 0.2% from a year earlier to £197.8 million, an improvement from the 4.9% retreat seen in the first quarter. Analysts had expected an outcome of £187 million. The Surrey headquartered company continues to expect annual operating profit that broadly matches current City forecasts of around £28 million. That compares with last year’s £20.9 million.
Shares in the FTSE 250 company rose 15% in UK trading having come into this latest news down by close to a half so far in 2026. That’s worse than a near one-quarter fall for rival Hays (LSE:HAS). The FTSE 250 index is up 4% year-to-date.
Page helps companies across more than 20 sectors, including accountancy, technology and engineering, hire staff via its brands Page Executive, Page Personnel and Michael Page.
The recruiter pointed to signs of improvement and normalisation in trading for several markets, with around half enjoying growth during the quarter and up from a third in the previous quarter.
Ongoing expansion and strong performances in the Americas and Asia Pacific sat against challenging but stable market conditions in France, Northern Europe and the UK.
Permanent hire profits, accounting for almost three-quarters of overall profit, rose 1.4% to £144.1 million, with temp profit falling 1.4% to £53.5 million.
Group net debt of £7 million was unchanged from the end of the first quarter in late March. First-half results are scheduled for 6 August.
ii view:
Founded in 1976, Page is today focused on the recruitment of specialist, generally 'white-collar' staff. Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) generated most gross profit during this latest quarter at 51%. That was followed by the Americas at 21%, Asia Pacific 17% and the UK 11%.
For investors, the AI revolution may see fewer jobs required in future. Stretched government finances for key markets France, Germany and the UK are likely to see the tax burden remain high, overshadowing corporate and candidate confidence. Net debt of £7 million contrasts with net cash held of £54 million held in early 2025, while a previous cut in the dividend from larger rival Hays could set a trend for the wider sector.
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On the upside, profit declines of 4.8% and 5.3% for the EMEA and UK respectively compared to declines of 9.2% and 11.4% in the first quarter, offers modest encouragement. Management actions include reducing fee earning staff by 1.6% from Q1 and a broader focus on reducing company costs. Diversity of both underlying client industries and geographical regions exists, while even a possible halving of the dividend payment would still leave it on a yield of around 3%.
In all, improving regional growth and ongoing management actions offer room for long-term hope. That said, more cautious investors may decide to await firmer evidence of an uptrend in group profits before taking an interest.
Positives:
- Business sector and geographical diversity
- Flexible cost base
Negatives:
- Economic outlook uncertainty
- Currency moves can hinder
The average rating of stock market analysts:
Hold
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