ii view: McDonald’s serves up cold US sales
Opening new outlets and boasting an enviable record of 50 years of consecutive annual dividend increases. Buy, sell, or hold?
4th November 2026 15:58
by Keith Bowman from interactive investor
Third-quarter results to 30 September
- Comparative global sales up 1.5%
- Revenue up 1% to $7.16 billion
- Currency adjusted earnings up 11% to $3.57 per share
- Fourth quarterly dividend of $1.93 per share, up 4% from Q3
Chief executive Chris Kempczinski said:
“McDonald’s delivered another quarter of global growth, with solid performance across much of our international business.
“We’re focused on building from here, strengthening the business today and investing in the next chapter of growth.”
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ii round-up:
McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD) reported its first decline in US sales for six quarters, although growth in global comparable sales matched Wall Street hopes.
US third-quarter comparable sales fell 0.2%, beating analyst estimates for a fall of 0.5%. A rise in Global comparable sales of 1.5% for the period improved from a gain of 1.3% in Q2, pushed by a 4.2% boost from its international development division including countries like Brazil and China.
Against the backdrop of US midterm elections, shares in the Dow Jones company rose 4% in US trading having come into these latest results down around a tenth so far in 2026. The Dow index itself is up by a similar amount during that time. Master global franchise holder Domino's Pizza Inc (NASDAQ:DPZ) has fallen by just over a fifth year-to-date.
McDonalds operates more than 45,000 outlets in over 100 countries. Management flagged improving US sales during the quarter as it pushed value menu options. Skye Anderson, a company executive for years was appointed head of the US division in Q2.
Comparable sales for International operated markets including the UK and Germany, rose 1.4%, easing from a gain of 1.5% in Q2.
A 1% rise in total revenues for the three months to late September to $7.16 billion fuelled 11% growth in adjusted earnings to $3.57 per share. Analysts had expected outcomes of $7.3 billion and $3.38 respectively.
A previously declared quarterly dividend of $1.93 per share, up 4% from the previous quarter, is payable to eligible shareholders on 15 December.
ii view:
Started in 1955 and headquartered in Chicago, McDonald’s today sells burgers, fries, and many other fast-food items. The 19 countries within the international operated division including France and Canada generated most profits in 2025 at 45%. The US business came next at 41% with international development the balance of 14%.
Under its ‘Accelerating the Arches strategy’, McDonald’s is focused on core products like burgers, chicken and coffee, as well the four ‘D’s of delivery, digital, drive-thru and development. Competitors in its home US market include The Wendy's Co Class A (NASDAQ:WEN) and Shake Shack Inc Class A (NYSE:SHAK).
For investors, pressured consumer incomes and intense competition has seen US sales trailing. Two-year US comp sales are up 2.3% compared to 3% for operated markets and 4.3% for developmental. Operational challenges such as a previous e-coli outbreak in the US provide day-to-day risks. Geopolitical tensions resulting in the group’s previous withdrawal from Russia cannot be forgotten, while costs such as those for wages have increased.
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More favourably, a focus on improving US execution continues and includes a new divisional head. The group’s performance improvement plan is ongoing. New outlet openings continue including a net 1,879 in 2025, while 50 years of consecutive annual dividend increases leave the shares on a dividend yield close to 3%.
On balance, and while risks remain, a consensus analyst estimate of fair value at over $290 per share offers reason for continuing longer-term hope.
Positives:
- Defensive value product offering
- Progressive dividend policy
Negatives:
- Cost pressures
- Subject to currency fluctuations
The average rating of stock market analysts:
Buy
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