Five AIM share tips for 2026: first-half winners and losers
After a difficult half-year, award-winning AIM writer Andrew Hore explains performance at these smaller companies and examines prospects for the next six months.
3rd July 2026 15:29
by Andrew Hore from interactive investor
My 2026 AIM recommendations have had six months to make progress, and the overall performance has not been as good as expected. Two stocks have risen, two have fallen and the other is unchanged, but one of the fallers more than wipes out gains elsewhere.
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The average decline is 2.7%, even though AIM improved by 1.3% during the period. Even so, the outlook for each of the companies is positive and they should do better in the second half.
| Company | Recommendation price (p) | Current price (p) | Change (%) |
| Accsys Technologies | 61.4 | 74.7 | +21.7 |
| Cake Box | 206.5 | 200 | -3.1 |
| Celebrus Technologies | 135 | 80.5 | -38.0 |
| Focusrite | 217.5 | 230 | +5.7 |
| Shearwater Group | 43 | 43 | 0 |
| Average | -2.7 | ||
| AIM All Share | +1.3 | ||
| AIM 50 | +3.2 | ||
| AIM 100 | -1.5 | ||
| FTSE 100 | +5.5 |
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Accsys Technologies
Recommendation price: 61.4p
Current price: 74.7p
Sustainable wood supplier Accsys Technologies (LSE:AXS) will move into profit this year as utilisation levels at the 60%-owned US joint venture with Eastman Chemicals continue to build up. Operational gearing is high and profit will rise rapidly as more capacity is used.
The Arnhem-based company treats timber to produce longer-lasting sustainable wood products. Accoya is wood for exterior doors, decking and structural projects. Tricoya is MDF panel for indoor and outdoor use.
There is strong demand for sustainable wood, and it sells at a premium price. In the year to March 2026, volumes in Europe increased by 6% to 57,104 cubic metres, while including the US total volumes were one-fifth higher at 77,237 cubic metres.
Last year revenues increased from €137 million (£117 million) to €153 million. Including the joint venture the total revenues were €183 million. There was a €1.9 million underlying loss, but this is set to move to a pre-tax profit of €7.7 million on revenues of €180 million this year. The 2029-30 profit could be treble that.
Net debt could fall from €41.9 million to €31.3 million by the end of March 2027 and cash generation will accelerate. Net debt could be almost wiped out by March 2029. There is a €55 million debt facility available.
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Given the rate of progress, management will soon have to decide whether to increase capacity in the US. The land supplied by Eastman provides scope for adding additional reactors. Two more could cost up to $80 million (£60 million). Cash generated plus the debt facility will be able to fund this expansion
Accsys Technologies is the best performer of the five companies, but there is still a lot more to go for over the next couple of years. If current forecasts are achieved, then the prospective multiple could fall to less than 11 in 2028-29. Buy.
Cake Box
Recommendation price: 206.5p
Current price: 200p
Egg-free celebration cakes and Indian sweets franchise retailer Cake Box Holdings Ordinary Shares (LSE:CBOX) did slightly better than anticipated in the full year. There was a 12-month contribution from sweets maker Ambala, but also a combination of income from new stores and like-for-like growth at Cake Box.
This has been achieved in a tough consumer market. Costs savings are coming through from integrating Ambala and it will make an increasing profit contribution.
In the year to March 2026, group revenues were two-fifths higher at £59.7 million with Cake Box income 9.3% ahead. Total sales from franchise and company owned stores were 28% ahead, including like-for-like growth of 4.9% for Cake Box itself.
The Cake Box and Ambala systems are being upgraded and integrated which leads to a one-off charge. Excluding that, underlying pre-tax profit improved from £7.1 million to £8.7 million. A rise to £10 million is expected this year.
The total dividend has been raised from 10.2p/share to 10.8p/share and it is covered 1.5 times by earnings. The dividend is likely to increase in line with earnings growth.
Net debt increased from £9 million to £10.8 million due to capital investment in a new warehouse and a £4.58 million. There is unlikely to be much change in debt by March 2027, but lower capital investment should enable it to fall from then on. The forecast yield is 5.9% and the prospective multiple is 12. That should attract investors and help to push the share price up.
Cake Box store. Photo: Peter Dazeley/Getty Images.
Celebrus Technologies
Recommendation price: 135p
Current price: 80.5p
It appears that this recommendation was too early. Celebrus Technologies (LSE:CLBS) has been the worst performer of the five companies. A move to a subscription model was always going to hold back the progress of profitability in the short term. Instead of a software sale making an immediate contribution to the figures, the income is spread over a longer period.
This is a strategy that has been undertaken by other software companies, and there is an initial decline in the share price until the benefits show through in subsequent years. I thought a lot of the decline had already happened, but I underestimated where the company was in the process.
There have been no major negatives so far this year, but there are some delays. Celebrus Technologies says full-year revenues were broadly in line with expectations at $23.3 million, down from $38.7 million because of the change in business model, and the loss will be around $200,000. Two bank customers sold off parts of their businesses, so their payments were reduced. Some expected deals at contracted stage were lost or delayed but new clients are being won.
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Annualised recurring revenues grew from $13.6 million to $15 million. That is the most important metric for longer-term growth.
The balance sheet is strong. Cash was $32.4 million at the end of March 2026, and it should remain around this level. Another loss is anticipated on flat revenues for 2026-27, whereas a small profit was previously anticipated.
The annual results will be published on 14 July. Longer term, the strategy of the recommendation is correct, but the share price may take time to recover.
Focusrite
Recommendation price: 217.5p
Current price: 230p
Audio and content creation equipment supplier Focusrite (LSE:TUNE) is returning to growth, and profit is set to recover strongly. The share price is showing signs of improvement as well.
Focusrite published figures for the 18 months to February 2026 showing revenues of £245.5 million and an underlying pre-tax profit of £16.5 million. The 12-month figures are more informative. Revenues edged up less than 2% to £164.6 million, underlying pre-tax profit improved from £12.2 million to £12.7 million.
Organic constant currency growth was 2.7%. The main growth in revenues came in the Americas with US sales going well. Content creation is a growing market and Focusrite is well-placed to take advantage.
A reduction in working capital helped to more than halve net debt from £17.9 million to £8.6 million. In the past four years, Focusrite has spent £6 million on developing a chip that is designed for its product range that can be used by all the brands. This will make new product development more efficient and de-risks the supply chain. It should help to improve margins.
Pre-tax profit could recover to £15.8 million in the year to February 2027. The shares are trading on less than 12 times prospective 2026-27 earnings, falling to nine the following year. That does not reflect the improvement in trading or the value of brands, such as Martin Audio, Focusrite and Novation. The share price should continue to improve in the second half.
Shearwater Group
Recommendation price: 43p
Current price: 43p
Cybersecurity software and services provider Shearwater Group (LSE:SWG) has been winning new contracts, but the share price has failed to recognise the progress. The latest is a five-year contract extension with a UK telecoms client worth £25 million over the period. This is for packet monitoring, forensic analysis and assurance services.
This contract will underpin the forecast for the year to June 2026. There will be £12.5 million recognised in 2025-26. Pre-tax profit is still forecast to rise from £600,000 (in a 15-month period) to £1.1 million. There was a loss reported at the interim stage.
However, the first cash payment for the latest contract extension will not be collected until after the year end. Despite the change in year end, the company still seems to be dependent on winning contracts at the end of the financial year. Net cash is likely to be lower than expected at £5.6 million at the end of June 2026. That is more than 50% of the current market capitalisation.
A further pre-tax profit improvement to £1.5 million is expected for this year. That is equivalent to less than eight times prospective earnings. The share price has risen on the back of the latest news, but it tends to fall back after a rise. Even so, at some point the underlying value of the business combined with the cash pile should be recognised. Buy.
Andrew Hore is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of interactive investor.
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