Must read: BP hits top of FTSE 100, US banks
ii’s head of investment rounds up the morning’s big news.
14th July 2026 09:17
by Victoria Scholar from interactive investor
Photo: Anna Barclay/Getty Images.
BP trading statement
BP (LSE:BP.) said net debt at the end of the second quarter is expected to fall to around $22 to $23 billion (£16-17 billion), versus $25.3 billion in Q1. It also expects its second-quarter oil trading result to be “slightly higher” compared with the first quarter. That’s even after an extremely strong period for oil trading last quarter when the Iran war-fuelled energy shock supercharged earnings which more than doubled year-on-year.
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It appears that the Middle East uncertainty is here to stay at least for now after the US said it will reimpose a naval blockade on Iran, reversing course after last month’s steps towards a peace deal. Ongoing higher oil prices are supportive of BP’s share price as well as its earnings in the near term, but the company’s outlook is highly vulnerable to developments in the Iran conflict beyond its control.
BP has jumped to the top of the FTSE 100 this morning, rallying around 3%, lifting rival Shell (LSE:SHEL) with it. Oil equities are getting a boost both from today’s update from BP as well as a rise in the underlying oil prices with Brent crude back above $85 a barrel following another night of US strikes on Iran.
US Q2 bank earnings
Second-quarter US bank earnings kick off today with results from Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM).
There are high hopes for the sector with a major tailwind anticipated from a rebound in investment banking dealmaking, supercharged by the Space Exploration Technologies Corp Class A (NASDAQ:SPCX) IPO payday on Wall Street. After a period when M&A was in the doldrums, this year is shaping up to be a mega year for investment banking fees with Anthropic and OpenAI’s flotations also in the pipeline.
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On the public side, equity capital markets revenue is also likely to be a bright spot for the sector, particularly for banks like Goldman Sachs with big trading desks, following a very strong second-quarter bounce back for stock markets amid the pullback in oil.
The outlook for US interest rates has drastically shifted in recent months. Markets were expecting rate cuts from the Fed in 2026 at the start of the year whereas now expectations are for either no change or one hike. Banks’ net interest income is a key beneficiary of the higher-for-longer interest rate outlook. However, ongoing inflationary pressures could put pressure on borrowers, and this week’s bank earnings might provide some clues to the resilience of US consumers and businesses.
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