eyeQ: BP, Reckitt Benckiser, Mastercard

“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ

• Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary

This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).

A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.

All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.

Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.

UK Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 3 July 2026.

Reckitt Benckiser

Reckitt Benckiser Group (LSE:RKT) has enjoyed a decent bounce over the last few weeks. Management restructuring could be part of that; equally it is a classic defensive play that benefits in times of uncertainty. Either way, macro disagrees. Yes, our model shows RKT benefits when equities are volatile (higher VIX) and credit conditions worsen (spreads widen). But eyeQ model value continues to languish around recent lows. So, this latest rally isn’t justified from the top-down perspective and our machine has a bearish signal on the stock.

International Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 3 July 2026.

Mastercard

Mastercard Inc Class A (NYSE:MA) has also enjoyed a strong rally. This time the bottom-up story appears more obvious. The threat from stablecoins appears to be receding, payment volumes are strong, the company is seen as a quality growth story and there are good reasons to think MA could be a beneficiary from AI. This looks like a genuine re-rating.

From a purely macro perspective though, a lot of good news is now priced in. The stock has run almost 10% above our $488 fair value. Again, we have a bearish signal but this time a discretionary overlay would suggest this is more a case of poor entry levels - don’t chase the rally.