eyeQ: Rio Tinto, Kering, HSBC, Diageo

“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ

• Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary

This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should’ trade).

A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.

All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.

Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it’s cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.

UK Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 23 October 2026.

Rio Tinto

In last week’s top 10 we highlighted copper giant Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) as the cheapest UK-listed stock in a macro regime. That call was early; for tactical, high frequency investors being early is the same as being wrong. So, a mea culpa from us. ANTO sold off even more last week and now sits 18% below our macro fair value. 

Interestingly, it’s now joined by Rio Tinto  Ordinary Shares (LSE:RIO), which shares the same profile on our model. High macro relevance, model value treading water so this recent sell-off is not justified by broad macro conditions. Rio is now 13.4% below our model value of 7,072p. So, eyeQ continues to argue these mining stocks should not be trading as poorly as they are.

Last week’s early ANTO call may mean you take this RIO signal with a pinch of salt. Fair. But there’s a consistent story coming from eyeQ’s smart machine - for believers in a long-term commodity cycle as a hedge against sticky inflation, this latest wobble is offering some attractive entry levels to two blue-chip miners.

International Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 23 October 2026.

Kering

Luxury stock Kering SA (EURONEXT:KER) suffered an 18% drop on Friday after its Q3 update showed Gucci - central to the firm’s earnings - was struggling. Poor sales, weak performance in China, and little in the way of a clear recovery plan.

There is a clear company-specific story at play here. Gucci has underperformed for a while and investors keep waiting for signs of a turnaround. Until we get evidence of that, the bottom-up narrative will remain cautious.

But note there’s a macro element at work too. Macro explains 68% of shifts in the stock price right now. And there’s some consolation on this front.

eyeQ model value is flatlining rather than making new lows. Friday’s sell-off leaves the stock 20% cheap to our €214 model value. From a purely macro perspective, there’s a lot of bad news priced in and our smart machine has fired a new bullish signal.