ii view monthly round-up: July 2026 – oil still major driver

A near one-quarter rally for the price of oil reversed the significant fall in June. The FTSE 100 index, with significant exposure to energy prices, rose 3.5% in July. The Nikkei 225 index for oil importer Japan fell 8%.

US markets proved mixed, pushed and pulled by events in the Middle East as well as a wealth of corporate results including many of the so-called Magnificent Seven companies.

The Dow Jones rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 retreated 0.1% and the tech-heavy and most interest rate sensitive Nasdaq Composite fell 3.2%.  

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On the ground, Shell (LSE:SHEL) shares rose 15% in July, and adjusted profit soared to $9.84 billion (£7.4 billion) for the second quarter to late June, up from $6.92 billion in Q1. 

Records for both upstream production in Brazil and refinery utilisation helped counter hindered Middle East production. Shareholder returns included another $3 billion quarterly share buyback programme.

Prior to expected results tomorrow (4 August) BP (LSE:BP.)’s Q2 trading update saw it announce a $1 billion write-down of its gas and low carbon business, as the energy major continued a pivot back to core oil and gas operations. Its share price climbed 18% in July.

Away from oil, the cyclical play with a new name Michael Page (LSE:PAGE) detailed results that beat City hopes. The former Page Group helps companies hire staff across more than 20 sectors, including accountancy, technology and engineering.

Second-quarter gross profit was down 0.2% from a year earlier at £197.8 million, an improvement from the 4.9% retreat seen in the prior first quarter. Analysts had expected £187 million. Shares in the FTSE 250 company soared 70% over the month.

Retailer Dunelm Group (LSE:DNLM) flagged a pending strategic update alongside its forecast-beating results. The seller of homewares expects to provide a further strategic update in tandem with full-year results in September.

Fourth-quarter sales up 2.9% to £428 million beat analyst hopes for growth of 2.3%. Dunelm shares climbed 10% over the month.

On the downside, British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG) fell by a similar amount. Fuel costs up by close to quarter during Q2 left adjusted profits down 16% at €1.41 billion (£1.2 billion).

The airline largely maintained hopes for the year ahead but reduced annual capacity growth to flat from previously expected expansion of under 3%.

Miner Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) also shrank by close to 10% in July. The Mexican precious metals producer detailed second-quarter silver production below City forecasts, but with gold beating estimates.

The price of both gold and silver was little changed in July as investors continued to assess prospects for interest rates. Possible rate rises reduce the attractiveness of precious metals.

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In the US, shares in Mag7 company Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) soared by almost a quarter. The operator of data centres hosting increasing quantities of AI software for corporations reported both profit that beat forecasts and a confident sales outlook. 

The Dow Jones company expects growth of 45% from its specialist cloud data Azure service during the first quarter of its financial year to late September. That’s up from forecast beating growth of 43% in the three months to late June.

Fellow Mag7 company and operator of data centres, Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), offered similarly favourable results. Sales at its AWS cloud data business grew at their fastest pace since 2021.

Amazon predicts growth in current third-quarter group-wide sales of 9-12%, potentially fuelling profits for the quarter of between $22.5 billion and $26.5 billion. That compares with $17.4 billion last year. Amazon shares gained 14% in July.

Income play Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ) also did well, rallying 11%. Verizon reported record adjusted quarterly profit, with the telecoms giant pointing to an ignition of growth under head Dan Schulman, who joined in October 2025.

Second-quarter adjusted profit (EBITDA) of $13.7 billion was up 7.2% from a year ago, pushing earnings up 6.6% to $1.30 per share. Verizon shares boat a forecast dividend yield of around 6%.

Finally, electric vehicle maker and Mag7 company Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) plummeted by a quarter during the month. The Elon Musk company detailed earnings weighed down by a 142% annual increase in capital expenditure.

Adjusted earnings fell 18% to $0.33 per share, missing Wall Street hopes for $0.51 per share. Results for Musk's newly listed space business Space Exploration Technologies Corp Class A (NASDAQ:SPCX) are expected tomorrow (4 August).