Wild’s Winter Portfolios 2026: winning stocks revealed

We’ve been running these winter portfolios for a dozen years. Both have shown strong returns over most years and would have generated big profits if you’d reinvested winnings every winter – between 1 November and 30 April. The strategy is based on historical performance showing stock markets typically do better in winter than summer. We just feed in the data to identify a handful of stocks to create a portfolio for cautious investors and one for those comfortable with a little more risk.   

It is important to understand that these are data-driven portfolios. There is no manual intervention; the portfolios pick themselves from data run by mathematician Stephen Eckett each year. The five FTSE 350 shares that have risen most winters over the past decade and have the best average return, get a place in Wild’s Consistent Winter Portfolio.

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Buying this year’s portfolio of most reliable performers at the very end of October or 1 November, then selling on 30 April for the past 10 winters, would have generated an average return of 13.9%, excluding dividends. The benchmark FTSE 350 index returned 5.1%.

Adding a little more risk increases potential returns. We do this by relaxing the entry criteria for Wild’s Aggressive Winter Portfolio to a minimum eight positive winters in the past decade. From the list supplied by Mr Eckett, we use the five FTSE 350 stocks with the highest average winter profit over 10 years. The new basket of higher-risk shares would have delivered an average winter return of 20.1%.

• Find out what Wild’s Winter Portfolios are, how they work and why
• Visit the Wild's Winter Portfolios home page here
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Last time, the strategy’s 12th winter, both portfolios made a benchmark-beating profit of more than 6%; even more when you include dividend income. Share price gains marginally exceeded those of the FTSE 350, although unfortunate timing of ex-dividend dates meant that total return for Wild’s Consistent Winter Portfolio (6.6%) lagged the benchmark (7.5%). Wild’s Aggressive Winter Portfolio returned a total of 7.7%.

Whenever we start the new portfolios, we like it to come off the back of a weak summer season - from 30 April to 31 October - because it further validates the strategy of seasonal investing. Last year, some big winners meant the consistent portfolio had returned an average of 12.2% over the six summer months of 2025. The aggressive portfolio averaged 3.2%. This summer, the consistent basket of shares averaged 5.6% and the riskier strategy 11.4% compared with a 4% rise for the FTSE 350. It didn’t prevent winter profits last year and need not be a blocker this time either. 

Risks for this year’s winter portfolios

Over the years, geopolitical events have shifted markets and had an impact either way on the winter portfolios. Some are temporary, some create an overhang that can last much longer. A year ago, I wrote here about borrowing costs and inflation, President Donald Trump, an AI bubble, a strong summer for some constituent stocks and a looming Autumn Budget.

Well, we successfully navigated the UK Budget this year, although in truth it was never likely to be a massive banana skin for most UK stocks. November’s US midterm elections could rattle markets, although if performance following every midterm election since the Second World War repeats itself, the S&P 500 will be higher nine months after the vote.

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Concerns about an AI bubble remain. Tech companies have spent hundreds of billions of dollars more on computer chips, data centres and infrastructure, and it remains a real risk if markets don’t start to see a decent return on their investment. Updates from Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) demonstrate just how severely any disappointment will be punished.

But the biggest impact on the global economy and stock market behaviour has been war in the Middle East. February’s attack on Iran by America and Israel triggered a sharp rise in global energy prices, and repercussions remain far-reaching. High oil prices have caused a broad increase in costs for goods and services, so instead of continuing to fall, interest rates have been rising to curb inflation, which remains way above central bank targets of around 2%.

Any or all of these problems have the capacity to inflict damage on the price of financial assets, including the winter portfolios. However, like most other years, we must remain confident that a record of stellar performance over most winters bodes well for our constituent companies.

Wild’s Consistent Winter Portfolio 2026-27

Source: Stephen Eckett, ShareScope. Summer returns as at 29 October 2026. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Three stocks keep their place in this year’s consistent portfolio, which boasts an average winter return of 13.9% over the past 10 years.

There was no way Computacenter (LSE:CCC) was missing out after a 31% rally in the 2025-26 portfolio. Only issue is that the IT services company continued to charge higher over the summer. A bullish set of third-quarter results provided its most recent leg-up. Hopefully there’s more to come. We might find out at a capital markets day on 24 November followed by a full-year trading update on 28 January.  

Safety products conglomerate Halma (LSE:HLMA) is rarely far away from these portfolios, and last winter’s 24% profit ensured it appears again. Shares have had a bounce over the past week but still lost more than 20% during the summer, most of it after downgrading full-year growth forecasts. We hope this provides a platform for a recovery this winter.

A modest 3% gain last year hasn’t prevented Admiral Group (LSE:ADM) returning to this consistent basket of shares. The insurance provider has generated a profit every winter for nine of the past 10 years at an average return of 9.1%. But it’s another one of those stocks that’s done well over the summer. Shares hit a record high in August, just weeks after an upbeat assessment of prospects made up for uninspiring half-year results. Now, a recovery from an early autumn dip appears to be under way.

Fantasy wargames firm Games Workshop Group (LSE:GAW), which appeared in last year’s aggressive portfolio, is one of two new constituents in this more historically reliable basket of shares. It did brilliantly in 2025-26, generating a profit of over 22%, or 23.7% if you include dividends, extending its run of positive winter returns to nine in the past decade. Shares are currently near where they were this time last year after tumbling over 25% from their June peak.

Standard Chartered (LSE:STAN) is the other new face. It hasn’t appeared in either portfolio before but makes it this time after building a strong record of winter returns, averaging 11.7% a year. It’s had a good summer, and recent third-quarter results beat City forecasts. Hopefully, that positivity leads to further share price upside. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have set a price target at 2,790p, about a third higher than the current price.

• Standard Chartered expects even better year after these Q3 results
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The two companies making way for the newbies are FirstGroup (LSE:FGP) and AG Barr (LSE:BAG). The bus and train operator is relieved of its place in the portfolio after a terrible winter when its lost 22.6%, while the soft-drinks maker exits after falling 4.2% during the last six-month strategy. 

Wild’s Aggressive Winter Portfolio 2026-27

Source: Stephen Eckett, ShareScope. Summer returns as at 29 October 2026. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

As with the consistent portfolio, three stocks keep their place in this year’s higher-risk basket of shares. Because we relax the entry requirements for this portfolio to an 80% success rate over the past 10 winters, it pulls in some stocks with a history of bigger seasonal returns. This year’s five constituents average a 20.1% profit every winter over the past decade.

Because of last year’s stunning performance, Games Workshop keeps its place in the aggressive portfolio. Keller Group (LSE:KLR) remains too after being crowned best of last year’s winter stocks with a 40.8% profit, while BAE Systems (LSE:BA.) completes the returning trio after its 9.2% gain in 2025-26.

Engineering contractor Keller has risen by a similar amount over the summer months and reached a record high in July. Shares have moved in a sideways pattern since, hopefully pausing for breath before the next leg higher.

BAE Systems has had a volatile summer, but after making a multi-month high in August, the shares are back where they ended the last winter portfolio on 30 April. Defence stocks are likely to remain in focus as governments worldwide increase spending on their militaries.

Computacenter finds a berth in both portfolios this year and is joined in the aggressive portfolio by Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO), which has never appeared in either of these winter strategies. Hopefully, the Chilean copper miner can reclaim a near-8% drop over the summer months, a big chunk of which has occurred over the past few weeks. Losses were triggered by disappointing production targets for 2027 and a warning that higher diesel prices would increase costs. Analysts want evidence that its huge expansion programme can deliver higher output.

This pair replace FirstGroup, which blighted both portfolios in 25-26, and food packaging firm Hilton Food Group (LSE:HFG), which is punished for a 16.4% slump last winter.