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Winter Portfolios 2019

Insight and Ideas


Winners revealed

Will our Winter Portfolios beat the market again?


After five years of consistently beating the wider stock market, our winter portfolios are back to exploit this curious anomaly.

For the sixth year in a row interactive investor have constructed two portfolios to capitalise on this seasonal trend - the Consistent and Aggressive Winter Portfolios. Constituents of each portfolio are listed below in full with links to respective company pages. The choice to purchase individual lines of stock is that of the individual investor.

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Consistent Winter Portfolio

The Consistent portfolio is a basket of five stocks with the most stable track record of winter returns over the past decade. Each one has risen every winter for the past 10 years.

The five shares in our 2019-2020 Consistent Winter Portfolio are:

Company Ticker Activity Track Record (yrs) Positive Returns (yrs) Av. Returns (%)
Howden Joinery HWDN Kitchen supplier 10 10  19.1
Hill & Smith HILS Infrastructure products 10 10 19.6
InterContinental Hotels Group IHG Hotelier 10 10 19.6
Halma HLMA Technology company 10 10 14.9
Croda International CRDA Speciality chemicals 10 10 15.7

Source: Harriman House  Past performance is not a guide to future performance

Aggressive Winter Portfolio

For the Aggressive Winter Portfolio, constituents must have delivered the highest average annual returns over the winter AND risen for at least nine of the past 10 winters. With greater risk comes a significantly higher average winter return.

The five shares in our 2019-2020 Aggressive Winter Portfolio are:

Company Ticker Activity Track Record (yrs) Positive Returns (yrs) Av. Returns (%)
IWG IWG Workspace provider 10 9


JD Sports Fashion JD. High street clothes retailer 10 9 31.6
Bodycote BOY Heat treatment engineer 10 9 25.2
Ashtead AHT Equipment rental 10 9 30.1
Synthomer SYNT Chemicals 10 9 23.1

Source: Harriman House  Past performance is not a guide to future performance

What will it cost to buy and sell the Winter Portfolios?

You will have to buy and sell each constituent individually. Lump-sum investment starts from as little as £3.99 online with ii, depending on your chosen Service Plan. A 0.5% UK stamp duty also applies when you buy shares.

view full rates and charges

Knowing the Risks

Past performance of the underlying constituents is not a guarantee of future performance. The value of investments, and any income from them, can fall as well as rise so you could get back less than you invest. These portfolios are designed for a short trading period, so market fluctuations may be more pronounced. If you buy the portfolio the holdings will not be automatically sold on 30 April.

ii publishes information and ideas which are of interest to investors. Any recommendation made here does not take into account your circumstances. This is not a personal recommendation. If you are in any doubt as to the action you should take, please consult an authorised investment adviser. ii do not, under any circumstances, accept liability for losses suffered by readers as a result of their investment decisions.

These portfolios consist of a very limited number of underlying securities. Any portfolio with fewer than 30 constituents is considered ‘highly concentrated’ and subject to a high level of concentration risk.  Concentration risk is when there is an insufficient level of diversification which means an investor is excessively exposed to one or a limited number of investments. These portfolios should not therefore be used for all or the majority of an investor’s assets but should be seen as a research or potential trading idea for a part of an otherwise broadly diversified portfolio.


We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.

Please note that our article on this investment should not be considered to be a regular publication.

Details of all recommendations issued by ii during the previous 12-month period can be found here.

ii adheres to a strict code of conduct. Members of ii staff may hold shares in companies included in these portfolios, which could create a conflict of interests. Any member of staff intending to write about any financial instruments in which they have an interest are required to disclose such interest to ii and in the article itself. We will at all times consider whether such interest impairs the objectivity of the recommendation.

In addition, staff involved in the production of investment articles are subject to a personal account dealing restriction, which prevents them from placing a transaction in the specified instrument(s) for a period before and for five working days after such publication. This is to avoid personal interests conflicting with the interests of the recipients of those investment articles.