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Boring Price Action

lse:pmo

#1

Nothing much going on at the moment, still stuck in a range. What Brent price will it take for us to break it, up or down?

Fundamentals improving everyday as debt gets paid down and Zama continues down the appraisal path. Still think we’ll test last years highs at some point this year, well if we haven’t been bored to death in the interim.


#2

Well, with the short interest of close to 4% that we can see, I wonder when they start to look at their exit strategies ? As 50% of Whitebox’s shorts are now under water, AHL got about 30% of their 2% short in similar circumstances and no idea on CCL.

Given the the recent price rises, the technical’s now looking more positive. Above all 5-100 day MA’s, so perhaps that might bring some buying interest from other technical funds.

All in all, a good couple of days if your still long.


#3

I’m obviously a glass half full type of person, but I’d be concerned if I was short…unless the market knows than we don’t of course…Oil is rising before peak demand season, Iran sanctions are expected to be tightened further in May and Venezuela production appears to be in free fall. Zama appraisal looks like it’ll net us 100mb+ of additional reserves, Catcher is outperforming and our next development, Tolmount, continues to progress with little Capex required from ourselves.

Premier is now a profitable, cash flow positive company with some huge assets in the pipeline. The share price imho is far too cheap.


#4

“Premier is now a profitable, cash flow positive company with some huge assets in the pipeline. The share price imho is far too cheap.”

Couldn’t agree more. I think the recent rise is only just the start as more people realise how cheap it is. The EV is not particularly onerous for the amount of cash we should be throwing off with POO above $60. With a lot of talk of shale growth slowing and other bullish indicators I doubt we will see anyting below $60 for Brent again this year.

My short term target of around 170 is still achievable, if not this year, then certainly next. Mishaps and other negative events notwithstanding. But I suppose one other risk is the corporate hubris of buying a load of Chevron assets with other people’s money. I would not be impressed with that.

DB


#5

Shale in my opinion is the major factor putting a collar on poo, but having said that world demand is growing at 2mbpd year in year out. Not sure shale can keep up with that demand & also as the big boys take a bigger slice in the Permian, it is arguable that their discipline & overheads will determine a higher breakeven & constrain uncompetitive development. All assuming the laws of economics apply to shale.


#6

Great for traders and medium term investors but poor here for long term buyers. 3 months down was savage Oct-Dec 18.

The 3 months up so far in 2019 have made very little inroads into last quarter carnage. Needs a major rally in March or there will be big sellers in April imo. Been nice though for new year buyers