Gold short 1298.1
1300, broken !
now how much can it retrace
Indices and dollar are slowly coming down
Interestingly VIX is cool
Good weekend all
Sold final portion 6 Calls $305 at 11.2 exp 1/2 50% Done
I made a mistake
I was certain the floor was 1280
should have waited instead of buying at 1285
although still overall decently positive but better not repeat
FTSE tracker ETF = Long position can be played for 5-10%
One confirmation of a DEFINITE NO NO-DEAL BREXIT.
Apart from waiting for VIX to fall near 15.
I havent found anything new.
I think the currency market has told you emphatically that there will be no hard Brexit. The way Sterling jumped is very telling. If people really think they can wait for certainty, then, buy the market, they are deluded.
Buying 20% down when VIX was 35 and there was little liquidity, is never easy, except if you know the stats and can visualise the move. Why buy the market after it has rallied 16%?
Done very well on TSLA Options and VIX longs.
Fair enough and I see your logic regarding FTSE
VIX play intact - its gotta get lower for me to go Long.
TSLA; was right to wait a week its slided a little, I am confident on TSLA but not sure on its entry point.
Earning season continues and until SP solidly respects and accept 2600+ as the floor, its not worth buying equities.
Meanwhile commodities are doing well.
And looking to add Coffee and Wheat to the list
UK needs its own VIX
I think we got a decent pullback on TSLA. 347 - 281 is roughly 20%. To me that is quite a de-risking. From a buy to hold point of view, I would say that is a good entry point.
The very frustrating thing for me is the lack of selling response in2620- 2670 area. I’ve given this a lot of time (and dodged in an out on the shorts), but it is still holding. Let me be clear, if I was an investor who had missed the low, I would not buy here, however, the short is like pulling teeth.
Yes the FTSE does need a VIX equivalent.
Don’t know if I mentioned this before, but, Cboe have Brexit 50/50 indexes (BUKHI50P and BUKLO50P). These act as barometers for assessing how Brexit is impacting UK companies by analysing the difference in performance between those companies that generate a large portion of their revenue from the UK compared to those that have less revenue exposure to the UK.
Of course it would be too much like work for LSE to think of that. It does offer the chance of a “pairs” trade
I hope you got out of that.
If not console yourself with the knowledge that Caldarro seems to confidently have this down as a bear market rally. IMHO he’s good on the big picture and his pivots deserve respect. Some are talking of it going down all the way to the 800s! But that’s a long game.
I got crucified on Christmas Eve! (small stake) (DOW)
Then my santa rally came with knobs on but I wasn’t looking at it!
I had a very good family Christmas which no doubt was why I didn’t look at the computer until the 28th! Then I had a proper “B%gg£r me!!” experience because by then (as it seemed to me at the time) I’D MISSED IT!! So there was no point in going long at that stage!
So I didn’t.
NOW Swampy, I think you should print the 2 preceding paragraphs off and pin them to a January chart of the Dow. And then never forget how easy it is to get two big things wrong (Santa Rally and the January rally) completely wrong in two days. And trust me on this - I’ve been losing money (a bit at a time) for 10 years or more! On occasion I’ve been remarkably successful only to give it all back because of greed or a false belief in my own infallibility.
Otherwise, sorry I haven’t posted more regularly as I said I would but been distracted by a very dear old friend’s (95) health problems. Things are settling down now so I will try one post a day.
I am still refining what I do and will let you know if it ever works!
ATB and Happy New Year to all
ATB and GL
gold short 1302.97 .
I did close 2 short positions at loss late Friday.
I think it retraces down though…
Yes mostly sellers but not that many
I am not sure whats coming today when US opens up so will wait.
Otherwise it will touch 1280 again once
It will do that scary thing it did at 1220 level where it slided under 1200 for a day
shocked the pants off everyone and then shot up again.
I am not chartist as you know but I realise that
one day is not enough to confirm floor or ceiling.
Very interesting - I doubt if there’s anything on this planet which isnt statistically quantified by CBOE.
Ok looks like a start to a potentially monumental week
I’ll stay out whole week, unless commodities dip then I will buy
Well I had three chips at it today (DOW).
Long 24688. Stopped out for 30 pips.
Then Long 24634. Stopped out for 20 pips.
Then long 24380 which is still open. I’ve moved my stop to 24442 beneath recent resistance to protect some of it.
On Friday it broke up through my poorly drawn trendline ( I wouldn’t know how to post a chart!) down from the September/1st October top only to be brought back down below it in Sunday night futures and has stayed below since.
I fancy that she’ll have another go at it so I’ll stay long for the time being.
The one thing that most commentators seem to agree upon is that this week, in this area, we are at a major inflection point. So it could go up or down!
I have bear bias at the moment (i.e. I think we are in the early stages of a bear market not a simple correction) so, whilst I think it might retest the 24800 to 25000 area, I think it is on the cusp of tumbling and giving us another bad February.
I would otherwise remind the gold traders here of the oft forgotten Confucian principle…“Those who step into the gold market need asbestos fingers”.
ATB and GLA
Somewhat distracted but have added shorts all the way to 1308.83, with 1308.82 1308.47 & 13074.3 along the way.
It goes down.
I am convinced it is overbought.
I agree its overbought
Although in short term - this week specially - it might go up or remain painfully sideways