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lse:lloy

#2438

I was too brief, China has a different way of expanding.
They have lent vast sums of money to Vietnam and built a fishing port the size of a Naval base. Vietnam will never be able to repay the loans, but when China needs a favour like basing some of it’s Navy in Vietnam it will quietly lean on Vietnam. There is a huge amount of Chinese investment in Thailand pretty much all manufacturing is Chinese owned and some is moving out to Indonesia where there is cheaper labour and a huge investment opportunity. Many S,E Asian countries have huge investments from China they will slowly become vassal states without much risk of war. Take a look at Africa vast tracts of land have been effectively bought by China and there is a lot of inward investment. China is very corrupt so they find it easy to do business in Africa, In the DRC they built a few roads a hospital and have a very large mine, can’t remember what they are mining I think it is tungsten or some such critical mineral. Even the UK is desperate not to upset China because we want the inward investment. Trump has relaxed sales of semiconductors to Huawei because USA companies need the money. If we are unlucky China will own the world in 50 years. Putin is very noisy and nasty trying to rebuild the Soviet Union and gets all the attention but is much less of a threat than China.


#2439

Frog

It’s pretty clear that remainers dream of the good old British Empire and power so hanging on the shirtails of the EU to retain a little bit of illusory power. What’s wrong in being an independent island off the coast of Europe doing our own thing and let the rest get on with it. Economic damage to the UK may last a few years but generally we only work hard when our backs are to the wall. Long term we are going to be so much better off financially as well


#2440

Most business leaders and economists disagree with you Peter. Possibly you are confused? It is English Nationalist Brexiters that have dreams of Empire and of refighting WW2.

Cheers,

Frog


#2441

Frog

I am sure there are people on both sides who are power hungry. Nobody really knows for sure what will happen long term but it will probably be somewhere in the middle


#2442

No I tried the concept of Money, Power and Control on them a few weeks ago … seems they thought I’d either been drinking too much Mythos or just talking in riddles.

Possibly a little too deep for them :wink:


#2443

Trouble with all this we may be worse off for a few years is its being shouted in the main by PPL who are retired or rich and wont be affected by any downturn, and it certainly was not sold by the BREXIT campaign so just another example of a fraud. “dont worry we won the war” wont help ppl with families being laid off

In terms of hanging onto shirttails of the EU we done pretty well since being “sick man of Europe”


#2444

Even if it is “somewhere in the middle” that implies that it will be less good than what we have now. N’est pas?

The situation at the moment is that we have tariff free trading wth the EU which is our biggest trading partner taking 44% of our exports. When we have prospered as a member of the EU why would we want to put that at risk? That is what our economists and business leaders are asking. Brexiters are stabbing the UK in the back. And you are supporting them???

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#2445

What we have now is the EU which is a big wall around Europe. To anyone having 44% of your eggs in one basket is crazy, it has been getting worse for years. If any sales director in a company did that he would probably get firedThe EU being so close is domestic, I used to really enjoy working in Europe but over the last 20 years it has become obvious that it needs major reform which isn’t going to happen anytime soon. If we hadn’t had such hopeless governments who were only interested in financial services more effort would have been put into serious exports. So things will get worse before they get better. ever economy goes in cycles. We still haven’t recovered from the Brown Blair disaster.


#2446

Well I am not rich or retired just a realist.

I ignored all of the leave remain campaigns they were pathetic as is the current campaign for PM. By the way we didn’t join the EU in 1973 Blair joined the EU. I formed my opinion over some 20 years of working in Europe and Asia. Lets hope Corbyn doesn’t get elected overwise we will be the sick man of Europe again


#2447

Well China is hardly unique in that. USA has bases and facilities all over the world, including just about every country liberated in WWII from which it has never then left.

I agree that Russia doesn’t do it so much as China, although note it has a massively important naval base in Syria and also in the Crimea ,which was once part of Ukraine.

Russia doesn’t have the money to invest its way around the world because it has spent all the extra money on arms in recent times so when it doesn’t ‘quietly lean’ on a country when it needs its base, it send the tanks or air force in as in the two examples above.

Personally I believe Russia is the greater threat in future rather than China. China has no history of wishing to expand its influence in the same way as Iran (Persia) or the old European powers, including Russia. The trouble with once great powers is the people always seem to hanker after the old days, and there is no doubt that the fact Russia is no longer a ‘super-power’ still stings in Russia.

Most of the rest of Europe has got over its empire days although Brexit is arguably a last twitch of the corpse of the empire-minded in the UK.

USA projects power through economics mostly and backing bad dictators, and like China has a history of ‘splendid isolation’. In both countries they tend to believe they live in the best place in the world and don’t particularly want to get mixed up with anywhere else. China exploits resources in Africa bur rather than try and spread influence it often imports its own workers and keeps them separate from the local population. That isn’t how an imperialistic power normally behaves.

Russia is mostly Siberia and well aware its a tough, frozen wasteland where people are sent to live as a punishment. Russia is still desperate for its own warm water port, something that has driven its foreign policy for centuries.

The UK has chosen a path of becoming less and less significant on the world stage by withdrawing from the EU. We have little choice but to toe the line in NATO and hope America does the right thing.


#2448

Having 44% of our trade with close geographic neighbour is NOT a bad thing. I hope that we will be able to preserve as much of this as possible in Brexit goes ahead. I would agree that the UK economy was misbalanced in favour of financial services. That was a result of Thatcher’s policy which did not favour industry. Financial services look likely to take a bashing in any form of Brexit. I would hope that we would have strong trading relationships with our geographical neighbours. The fact that we were in a free trade association with our Neighbour in Europe was our strongest card.

On your second post, the Blair government was actually successful economically and did much to restore the depredations of the Thatcher/Major years.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#2449

Totally agree Pete. the very fact someone can brush off being a bit worse off for a few years suggests they haven’t the first clue how badly off many have been already for the last 10 years or so.

The vast majority of Brexiteers voted to be better off immediately. They’re not going to get that either. Short term or medium term.


#2450

I agree that was a disaster, but it was a Thatcher disaster. The rest of the economy had largely gone by the time Brown and Blair arrived.


#2451

I have seen that GDP chart many times before, used as an attempt to show “how well we have done after joining the Common Market in 1973”. The chart conveniently starts at 1973, so one cannot see what was happening to GDP before 1973, and only a couple of Countries are shown. The UK GDP appears to track that of the USA, so obviously by association the USA appears to have benefitted from the UK joining the new trade bloc.

I used data from this source - [GDP data] - to generate the following chart. This shows the UK GDP was rising steadily from 1960 to 1973, and if one extrapolates this part of the line we would end up roughly where we are now, showing that actually membership of the Common Market (and its later versions) did not seem to have made much difference to the UK economy overall.

If I convert the data into a percentage rise using the 1960 GDP figure as the basis then I get the following chart, which again shows that the UK and US GDP figures are markedly similar.

The GDP data does not seem to show any particular benefit (to GDP) from belonging to the European entity, but rather that the UK GBP moves roughly in line with the global GDP trends, something that was happening before we joined “Europe” and I suspect something that would happen after we leave.


#2452

Shame the charts only go up to the referendum.

See the big 50% drop in GDP in Russia on the charts? That’s what happens when the government announces it is going to default on its foreign debt obligations as Johnson is promising to do if we leave with No Deal.

From your tone I take it you don’t think that it applies to the UK in that situation?

(Charts are a bit ‘busy’ to follow for someone whose colour perception is none too hot, by the way)


#2453

The data are what the source contained, however, the main point was the contention that the UK GDP improvement post-1973 was related to the membership of the European entity. The original chart which I was taking issue with also only went up to about 2016.

I have not seen anywhere that Boris Johnson has promised to default on the UK’s foreign debt in the capital markets, which I believe was the case for Russia. The payments to the EU are not related to our foreign debt, they are a balancing payment to cover certain budget and administrative commitments whilst also considering what we are owed by the EU, and the final figures are still open to interpretation and adjustment. The legal case that the payments are due has not been confirmed.

What I have read is that the amounts would be put on one side and used as bargaining tools in the fight to avoid becoming a EU colony. Some of the amounts will in all probability be paid (e.g. the pension commitments), whilst others could be tested in the courts before anything is settled (e.g. budget commitments covering periods before and after leaving). I suspect the final bill will also depend on how vindictive the EU gets, and there is certainly a large potential hit to the UK GDP if it all turns nasty.

Sorry about the charts, it was a difficult balance to get a reasonable amount of data without having to resort to many simpler charts to fopcus on different areas. Also I did not optimise the colours used, they were what EXCEL used as default; the only change I made was to use the bright red for the UK - which is then easier to see.


#2454

The GDP data does not seem to show any particular benefit (to GDP) from belonging to the European entity, but rather that the UK GBP moves roughly in line with the global GDP trends, something that was happening before we joined “Europe” and I suspect something that would happen after we leave.

We could equally say that while the chart shows how the UK has performed while it has been in the EU, we cannot know that its performance would have been anywhere near as good had we not joined.

Frog in a tree


#2455

Theresa May and the negotiating team has signed on the dotted line owning these commitments and promising to honour them. If the money is not paid the EU say they shall treat it as a default. It isn’t part of the deal that our parliament rejected. The EU were adamant that the money be sorted first and separately, as I understand it. So, it will be a default if we refuse to pay it. Not like the Russian default, but an international debt default all the same.

Refusing to pay will be a gift to the EU when it comes to negotiating access to the EU market. That’s if we’re lucky.

The EU doesn’t have any colonies so I think someone was pulling your leg there. Putting debts to one side is a nice idea but the reality is it will lose us our credit rating. As we are heading for borrowing much, much more, that would be extremely stupid.

That was helpful, yes. it stood out so well it was as though it was a thicker line for me. If you could have knocked out the likes of Australia, Russia, Japan and other non-EU countries it would have been easier to follow.

As the GDP is measured in US dollars if the chart has carried on to the present day (or at least included 2018) I think it would have shown a sharp drop off for the UK. Your charts or the original one you responded to.


#2456

Before the UK joined the EEC it was part of a free-trade area (EFTA) with a population of 89 million (including UK’s own 51 million), but stood outside the EEC’s tariff walls… and a population of 170 million.

And that is why in the 60s, the UK knew that it needed access to other large markets in economies that were growing more rapidly.

Today, we still benefit from access to the Single Market… but that is being thrown away as we are forced to listen to the likes of Widdecombe and associated thick dotards.


#2457

Perhaps its just coincidence that the largest economies in the world in 2019 are USA (330m), EU (515m), China (1.2Bn), India (1.3Bn)?

Another coincidence perhaps is that 8 out of the top 11 by per capita GDP are countries within the EU (inc. Norway and Switzerland)?