- Nothing new to report.
May surrounds herself with old friends.
Challenge still looks unlikely, replacement even more so.
132 days (and 3 years to the next election).
Someone give me a nudge when the first vote takes place.
Still unlikely to pass on the first, but the second in January…that’s my guess.
Another day of lured headlines, except maybe at the i…
…there is more fevered plotting around the dinner tables of London. We hear that five Brexiters ministers plan to gang up on Theresa May to push her to renegotiate a more Brexiter friendly deal. Isaac Newton could have told them that for every action there would be an opposite and equal reaction. Given that a majority of MPs are Remain leaning, if the five were to make any progress with their plan that would pretty much pull the rug of any Remainer support that May might prospectively have at the moment.
The Brexiters don’t like the deal including that there would have to be joint agreement for the NI backstop arrangements to be pulled. I reckon that the UK government could withdraw unilaterally but that would result in an opposite and possibly unequal reaction from the EU in terms of the construction of a hard border and WTO rules. Even the Brexiters might baulk at this.
Given that it is reckonned that only a fifth of MPs back the current May deal solidly, the political situation is fragile. It may be that Tory MPs will ultimately back May’s deal for fear of worse.
More and more it seems that only a People’s Vote could break the deadlock. Corbyn needs to step up to the mark. That way all shades of opinion, hard Brexit, Chequers supporters and Remainers could all have a say and we could then have done with it.
Frog in a tree
Good afternoon Frog,
A slightly different topic to our recent posts.
The main problem that I have with such a suggestion is what would the “correct” answer be to another “Peoples Vote?”
Whichever way it went there would be people on the “losing” side of the vote and given the way the response has been to the original referendum would those that were on the losing side be as vociferous as the so called Remoaners" have beenover the last couple of years?
Would people then lobby for a third and deciding Peoples Vote, the best of three to be final and decisive?
Only my thoughts of course.
Enjoy your weekend
TJ, if there was another referendum and the majority of votes were for remain then that would democratically mean that the nation had changed it’s mind. Currently we have ‘at least’ 48% of people who voted in the 2016 election who are worried about the Brexit mess.
We need to give Parliament a chance to fix this mess. If they cannot then it has to go back to the people in a ‘Peoples’ vote. This would give voters the opportunity to direct Parliament. If voters chose to change their mind - knowing all that we do after 2 years of chaos - & choose to remain then that would be democracy. Equally if ‘the people’ decided to push ahead with Brexit - presumably either May’s deal or ‘No deal’ - then that would also be democracy. At least nobody could say that when we voted for a 2nd time we weren’t aware of the consequences of our decision.
You suggest that we need Parliament to !fix this mess." I would humbly suggest that it was Parliament that got us into this mess in the first place. So, in reality, what chance do we stand of hoping that Parliament could actually “fix it?”
I agree that if ,in a new referendum, the majority voted to remain it would mean that the nation had changed its mind. But who is to say that those who still voted to leave and let’s suggest that Remain were to win by 52 to 48 precent the losers in that vote will not then demand yet another vote with the same amount of passion and fervour that the Remoaners have in the last two years?
But then again, as you say, it could be that a second referendum whereby the voters still opt for Brexit, would confirm the decision to leave the EU but would it be as simple as offering “May’s deal” or “No deal” on a ballot paper. The Remoaners would complain bitterly that they had not been given the option to remain.
Just my thoughts and mine alone
Enjoy your weekend
Surely it’s the Tory government that’s to blame for how Brexit has been (mis) managed. The majority in Parliament aren’t Brexiteers, I’m hoping they will be able to assert a majority view…whatever that is. It certainly ain’t a ‘No’ deal, that’s for sure.
Part of the problem for Parliament is that there aren’t any ‘sensible’ ideas for improving on May’s deal. So the ‘choices’ for Parliament - assuming that a ‘No’ deal is to be avoided at all costs - are:
- Accept Mrs May’s deal (with slight amendments …‘possibly’)
- ‘No Brexit’ (another of May’s suggestions)
- A shift in UK red lines that will allow alternative deals.
Labour aren’t going to help I don’t think…unless individual Labour MP’s ignore their ‘leadership’. Corbyn is just sitting on the sidelines hoping he will benefit from all the chaos…as any good anarchist would.
TJ, you really believe that? I think people would have had a belly full of referendum by then.
Would people really want to go through this impossible painful process again and waste billions of £’s again? I suppose it gives us something to complain about.
Also don’t forget that Arron Banks recently said that he wished he hadn’t started this Brexit mess in the first place…perhaps he was joking!
A ‘Remain’ option could be included in the ‘Peoples’ vote…at the discretion of Parliament. I think Mrs May mentioned it was an option recently…‘No Brexit’
131 days and all’s well.
The understandable post negotiations negotiations.
Note: Headlines suggest EU wants an additional £10 billion if there’s any delays. Inevitable, if there’s at least a one year delay for a 2nd Referendum. How could that be justified? EU kills off the idea on a “people’s vote”. £10 billion price tag attached. Money better spent elsewhere. Flat income tax or removal of stamp duty?
Question for all
Is the arguments about Customs union more abt EU laws… This become law in January I expect there will be an implementation period many of Brexit/Tory backers are involved in offshore tax avoidance.
so are the 3 real Brexit choices:
(1) Enable the extremely affluent to continue avoiding taxes indefinitely; or
(2) Remaining in the EU; or
(3) Delay implementation of EU’s tax avoidance directives until after the transition, when we will be able avoid them, under May’s plan?
(might be difficult if Labour is in power)
If you can keep your head when all about you
are losing theirs …you can go bargain hunting.
This months dividend reinvestments going in.
130 days, it’s the Brexit Advent Calender.
…the Tories continue to rip themselves apart. The feverish speculation about the number of no confidence letters only serves to highlight the split in the party. These Brextremists have only minority support in the party and it seems that there only hope is to tear down their Prime Minister and her deal in the hope of bringing about a no deal Brexit. It is a dangerous game. It seems to me that their main gripe is that the transitional customs union arrangement can only be ended by mutual agreement. This is hardly any surprise since the Brextremists have previously been vocal about hardening the Brexit once the exit process had been agreed.
These guys are losers. As things are going, under May’s deal the Brexit would be a softish one and protective of business interests. If these Brextremists force a hard Brexit on an unwilling nation and parliament this, of itself, could bring on a second referendum and the end of Brexit.
Keep at it guys!
Frog in a tree
Civil Servants that agreed the deal and mislead TM will never achieve keeping us in the EU via a dodgy deal. No Deal and spend the 39bn at home.
Yes we need as much clarity as possible . I am sure you back this bid as it will make the Govs publish economic forecasts that compare its deal with remaining in the European Union. ?
Conservative leadership challenge appears to be fizzling our.
Corbyn says no 2nd Referendum.
Headlines have moved in to more mundane stuff.
If it carries on like this the Guardian will be reporting on Holly’s jungle triumph to keep the readership happy;
“Holly’s great triumph. Will it corrupt her?”
…more evidence emerges showing the ways in which Arron Banks and Leave.EU conspired to cheat their way through the referendum:
This article shows how Banks’ Eldon insurance staff were also employed to work for Leave.EU without being properly declared. If we are to have a democracy then it is essential that our elections and referendums are run in full compliance with the law. Otherwise the legitimacy of the outcomes are questionable.
Frog in a tree
First of many?
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has said Spain will reject the draft Brexit withdrawal deal without a clarification of the text on future talks on the status of Gibraltar.
…we hear more from business about how Tory Brexit plans will damage industry. Considering that the Tories always think of themselves as the party of business it is amazing to watch as they swing the wrecking ball.
The issue of reducing the flow of migrant workers go straight to the heart of Brexit. As we can see, Theresa May gets it about the customs union and she has been desperate, rightly, to protect our participation in it. But in order to reduce immigration she has had to sacrifice our membership of the single market as the free movement of labour is an integral part of this. This will result in very serious damage to swathes of our economy, not just in the low pay industries such as agriculture and care but also in our important financial services.
As we can see, “Windrush May” has had a bee in her bonnet about migration for a long, long while. And now she shows willing to lay waste to our economy to satisfy Tory voters.
Frog in a tree
crooks and liars and cheats. this is why we need another vote.
Am I the only one concerned about Dyson putting 2 Billion for new Electric Car Manufacturing plant in Singapore and not UK.
If this govt. cant get Dyson to invest in UK then frankly the rest is all b0llocks specially if it comes from Govt.