menu

Im in

lse:omi

#1

Just bought a load at 13.98p very happy with that.


#2

Forgotten little gem just doubled up a rally is long overdue


#3

Shruggie, the latest All In Sustaining Cost is a horrifying $1455. If you are expecting gold to hit $1500 soon then this is a great share, but I have held it a long time and I see the AISC marching up in advance of gold. The company has been hanging on by its fingernails over the years it seems to me, am I missing something, how much do you have?


#4

that was only high due to the lost production cash costs are far lower so not worried

i see gold going to $3000 next 5 years


#5

I concur with Mr Business.
Sadly Orosur is pretty much engaged with a survival strategy and has been the past year and more; arguably since the POG dropped below the $1,500/oz level [Apr13] that underpinned it’s previous growth strategy [+ proposed dividends].

If the latest AISC of $1455/oz is unrepresentative because of the down time, the previous quarter’s figure of $1,345/oz is only just at the recent highs for the POG and ~$70/oz below the current 200 day moving average.
This is unsustainable over a prospective timeframe beyond anther quarter or 2; indeed the modest cash balance is being gradually whittled away.
The reduced production from ~35k-oz-pa to 30k has to cover much the same fixed costs, whether that’s for the plant [repairs/renewals], directors, exploration/dev. , infrastructure [including tailings dam] …or whatever.
So, what was a breakeven operational cost of $900/oz at 35k production will need to be under $850/oz at 30k prod.
This cannot be achieved from open cast extraction; hence the recourse to underground means below the hollows of old o c pits.
When I sold out my final holding [Apr 2017] I thought a POG RELIABLY above $1,400 would enable Orosur to make a come-back in Uruguay, resuming at least 50k pa from open pits but even this may be insufficient.

What of Anza?
Well, there’s hope I guess but a long shot imho.
If there is to be development and production, well at present there’s:
Zero Plant
Little infrastructure
Permits etc?
No Columbian production team.
No cashflow from Uruguay to fund the above.

So, even a shallow extraction of easy to leach [oxide] ores through heap leaching means is going to require several $millions just for a minimal scale production operation.
Extensive exploration to prove a large, high quality, measured [JORC} resource [if it’s there], will require $10’s millions.
High interest debt or share equity dilution?
Take your pick.

Might conceivably be better [safer anyway] to just do a moderate JORC, sell Anza, bag the cash and hope the POG does indeed soar …whenever…and that cash can fund a Uruguay revival.

Was contemplating a fresh buy at sub 10p but the temptation has receded on examination.
AAZ remains my sole Gold mining play.


#6

So, the typical little bob up/reversal in the sp on the decent enough Anza drill news was quickly followed by further selling to new lows [8.5-9.0p spread now], despite POG remaining well above $1300/oz; rather as I’d expected.

My previous post contained a ‘typo’; the OMI AISC is of course running ABOVE the 200 day POG moving average; maybe less than $60/oz above now but still just as disconcerting.

“If the latest AISC of $1455/oz is unrepresentative because of the down time, the previous quarter’s figure of $1,345/oz is only just at the recent highs for the POG and ~$70/oz below the current 200 day moving average.”

I’m wondering if there’s a price I’d like to buy on an oversold basis but short of the POG rising convincingly above $1400/oz am struggling to justify one.


#7

Yes i am looking for a re entry but agree until POG breaks that $1400 i can see this drifting back to 5p