Or maybe it was a false dawn? Unless there is genuine news to the difference I’m still comfortable down here, might even pick up a few more if I had any uninvested dividends lying around. Obviously Brexit is weighing very heavy here (IMO) with the possibility of the new Tory leader bullying the UK into a no deal exit (people may have voted to leave but the majority certainly didn’t vote for a no deal exit!).
Worst case, a no deal exit, how bad would it be? Bad, but how bad? The UK won’t just sink into the Atlantic without trace. With every huge risk it poses would also come new opportunities and a bit of short-term ‘isolation’ might actually have some benefits for very UK-centric businesses - what does ITV physically import/export - I don’t mean digital, copyright content etc, I mean physically have to move stuff across a border?.. but that’s longer-term; short-term the SP will get crucified unless the ‘damage’ is already priced in.
Genuine damage or ‘risk’? In the event of a ‘no deal’ exit, the market will get crucified short-term. Some will be due to genuine change for the worse but much would be pain old fashioned fear/uncertainty - uncertainty means risk and the market always charges a premium for risk; even if the underlying business is relatively unaffected, the market will still require a higher return, meaning a lower share price for the same unchanged business.
But, let’s face it, no one really knows, no one. So anyone who insists we’d be better off is making it up, assuming a best case scenario, probably based on fantasy. Me, it’s a long time since I did my Economics degree but I have kept up to date; short-term, ugly, longer-term it will probably sort itself out but I’m not going to define ‘longer-term’!
If I genuinely though the UK would crash out with no deal, I would not have bought shares, I’d have sold pretty much everything by now, the genuine global multi-nationals excepted. But, no, I don’t believe the EU will renegotiate (other than maybe merely token/symbolic, nothing really different, just ‘face-saving’) so any prospective Tory leader who suggests otherwise, it’s just wishful thinking/election lies.
ITDYA wondering if any of the candidates has said “we’ll renegotiate, it won’t be ‘no deal’, but we will leave 31st Oct no matter”? Not a fit and proper person for any office, let alone PM!