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Long at 149.55

lse:itv

#21

Hi Jack,

Nice quick trade mate.

I’m hopeful that ITV may have turned a corner. After watching the ITV results presentation, I was quite pleased with ITV CEO Carolyn McCall’s presentation. She seems like a very switched on lady. I’m confident that ITV are in good hands, and with Britbox could transform ITV.

A good outcome from Brexit could well be the catalysts to a re-rating in the ITV share price along with the FTSE100.

Good luck Jack, and keep taking the profits. Regards. Nige


#22

Hi Nige,

Thanks. Much agree re the CEO. She’s steadily definitely turning things around for the better on a few fronts. No mean feat in a challenging macro climate. If economic conditions improve, the only way seems up.

Moreover, many of us thought ITV was ridiculously oversold on fairly decent results when sold down to lows of 123.75. Yet another example of totally irrational markets mostly driven by fickle sentiment. An upward correction seemed only a matter of time. Here’s hoping we can consolidate & go higher sooner than later.

Re taking profits: thanks again. In any volatile climate, taking decent leveraged gains as available is imperative. If I’d held real shares, I’d have sat for higher. But as I’ve more SB longs here, it’s a way of keeping an overall balance in that account. Not least protecting margin due to other longs elsewhere, some of which have very mixed fortunes, for eg. VOD. - Regards.


#23

Closed at 136.62 for 3+ pts. Reasons for booking gains as before. Volume also looks on the low side, though I’m confident this will be much higher again at some point.

Two leveraged longs left for higher targets. Would re-add again on any retrace. - GLA.


#24

Long at 134.58. Re-added 3rd long for reasons as before. Target on this one again lower than others.

Reasons: I still strongly anticipate an extension to Article 50 & a significant boost to stocks like ITV. - GLA.


#25

Long at 126.48. Re-added a 4th long for reasons as before. Seems well oversold for the usual reasons: ie. ongoing Brexit uncertainties. - GLA.


#26

Closed 132.12. Booked over 5.5 pts for reasons as before. Much continues to revolve around Brexit. Sentiment very fickle.

Though ITV goes ex-date next week, I still have 3 longs to take advantage of any further rise or dividend. - GLA.


#27

Closed 138.61. Booked 4+ pts & recent dividend of 5.4p. Makes sense with leverage considering Brexit uncertainties far from resolved.

Still 2 longs left for higher targets. - GLA.


#28

Long at 133.33. Re-added 3rd long for reasons as before. Other two at 145.49 & 149.55 from a while back, with dividends booked.

ITV’s Q1 update tomorrow. I’m mindful things can go either way, but largely feel that most negatives may be priced in near these levels. If I’m wrong, will hold on. Target on this add circa 138+ again. - GLA.


#29

Long at 125.03. Re-added a 4th & final long here.

Reasons: a poor reaction to results, but it seems overdone. Also a L/T support level not far below. Target immaterial for now, but back over 130 might tempt me on this one. - GLA.


#30

LSE:ITV
seems over done to me too; it’s not like these numbers weren’t expected. Then again it’s a nervous market with the Trumpster rattling the sabre and there is nothing compelling about ITV in the short-term unless you’re buying into the endless takeover rumours. Any rally here seems to get wiped out at the tiniest hint of anything other than good news (and there’s been precious little of that here in recent times)

I would be tempted (am tempted) but it does feel a little like stepping out in front of a bus; it might stop before it hits you in which case you’ll be fine, otherwise…

Regards,
ITDYA


#31

@In_the_dark_yet_again,

Thanks. Your added caution was wise. Good call staying out. Aside from Trump’s generally damaging tweets hitting sentiment across global markets, here we also have the Brexit impasse. The longer that drags on for, the more negatively it impacts on stocks like ITV & stops them recovering higher ad revenues. Realistically, this issue could be with us for a very long time yet.

ITV currently down to 119+ as I write & losing long-term support of 121+, though closing SP far more important than intraday moves. Mindful that markets can be irrational for long periods in either direction, that frequently sees stocks oversold or overbought, fair to say that this is likely to be a longer-term hold.

I’ll also not add more for a few reasons, however low it goes. - Regards.


#32

LSE:ITV
Well, I may have just stepped out in front of the bus but smallish. 4500 shares at 110.6

Thought about it last week when it seemed to have stabilised but hesitated…oh well, I never get the bottom as I never buy into a falling share.

At this level I do perceive real value albeit accepting ITV is pretty out-of-fashion in the market at the moment so will probably have to wait… unless I have completely misjudged it and do get hit by the bus!

Regards,
ITDYA (also bought some Reckitt; I can’t really explain recent ULVR surge so buy some RB in the hope it will get dragged up on the coat tails - again, might take a while!)


#33

I’ve joined you. This stock owes me 5%. Lol


#34

@In_the_dark_yet_again & @Armageddon,

Mindful that nothing goes up in a straight line for long, looks to be well-timed entries from both of you. Support at 105 & no-one, bar the very lucky, buys the exact low.

As Armageddon knows from my comments elsewhere, I’ll be deleveraging from here later at some loss. Ditto, one other remaining stock. Had I entered via real shares, as I’ve done occasionally in the past, I might have different views about staying the distance for higher targets. But I no longer have the same bullishness here as weeks ago. Not since Theresa May’s resignation.

IMO, the negative drag from a hard Brexit may impact ad revenues for a lot longer than previously imagined. While viewing trends are ever-changing among younger generations, for eg. via Netflix or other rivals. So if we see 120+ I may exit my longs altogether, depending on volume.

At least my hit here will be much less than elsewhere as stakes were much lower. - GL to both!


#35

Agree. Its a trqde zone buy here. Not a hold


#36

LSE:ITV
Or maybe it was a false dawn? Unless there is genuine news to the difference I’m still comfortable down here, might even pick up a few more if I had any uninvested dividends lying around. Obviously Brexit is weighing very heavy here (IMO) with the possibility of the new Tory leader bullying the UK into a no deal exit (people may have voted to leave but the majority certainly didn’t vote for a no deal exit!).

Worst case, a no deal exit, how bad would it be? Bad, but how bad? The UK won’t just sink into the Atlantic without trace. With every huge risk it poses would also come new opportunities and a bit of short-term ‘isolation’ might actually have some benefits for very UK-centric businesses - what does ITV physically import/export - I don’t mean digital, copyright content etc, I mean physically have to move stuff across a border?.. but that’s longer-term; short-term the SP will get crucified unless the ‘damage’ is already priced in.

Genuine damage or ‘risk’? In the event of a ‘no deal’ exit, the market will get crucified short-term. Some will be due to genuine change for the worse but much would be pain old fashioned fear/uncertainty - uncertainty means risk and the market always charges a premium for risk; even if the underlying business is relatively unaffected, the market will still require a higher return, meaning a lower share price for the same unchanged business.

But, let’s face it, no one really knows, no one. So anyone who insists we’d be better off is making it up, assuming a best case scenario, probably based on fantasy. Me, it’s a long time since I did my Economics degree but I have kept up to date; short-term, ugly, longer-term it will probably sort itself out but I’m not going to define ‘longer-term’!

If I genuinely though the UK would crash out with no deal, I would not have bought shares, I’d have sold pretty much everything by now, the genuine global multi-nationals excepted. But, no, I don’t believe the EU will renegotiate (other than maybe merely token/symbolic, nothing really different, just ‘face-saving’) so any prospective Tory leader who suggests otherwise, it’s just wishful thinking/election lies.

Regards,
ITDYA wondering if any of the candidates has said “we’ll renegotiate, it won’t be ‘no deal’, but we will leave 31st Oct no matter”? Not a fit and proper person for any office, let alone PM!


#37

Hi @In_the_dark_yet_again,

I generally agree with most of your comment, bar that with being leveraged here, I know I won’t avoid a hit. Only sensible realism ever since Theresa May was forced to resign by mostly hardline Brexiteers.

Of the 6 remaining candidates for Tory leader & PM, only Rory Stewart seems to have fully grasped the complexity of resolving the Brexit mess without incurring certain economic damage. Hence, I deleveraged long positions at significant loss elsewhere a few weeks ago.

Though I think any “No-Deal” scenario might involve a staggered exit, I still wasn’t prepared to risk assuming anything as 100% with leverage. Just in case certain sectors see further sell-offs in the event of a Tory PM putting his own popularity with pro-Brexiteers within his own party before the interests of the wider nation. I also don’t trust, nor have any great confidence in, current favourite BoJo.

On a positive note for ITV: support at 105+ was tested again on Friday 14th & just held. Today closed 107. So we’ve a potential double-bottom reversal, which is technically a bullish pattern in normal circumstances. However, if some blowhard new PM starts threatening a No-Deal Brexit again, that can of course soon change things for the worse. - Regards.


#38

Closed 125.53. Though I think it’ll recover later, that’s not to say it won’t reverse again on a hard Brexit. Volume not high.

But mainly I’m cleaning up more leveraged clangers to focus on trading UKX. In that respect the release of margin a bigger priority for me. Down to 3 longs here. - GLA.