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Long at 7424.80

index:ukx

#21

Long at 7154. A 3rd & final UKX long for similar reasons.

Reasons include some support at over 7100 from March when it was tested a few times. Also need to be out a while so can’t monitor.


#22

7100… I reckon that’s the big one. 7000 Would only be a final bull sucker before going sub. All in the 7100 (current view )


#23

Hi Armageddon,

Agreed. Circa 7100+ seems a key level. Last time UKX lost support it went as low as 6584+ in December for similar reasons. Fears of increased tariff wars leading to global recession. Hence all major global indexes suffering. OTOH, UKX bounced back fairly quickly soon after & was seeing over 7500 by April.

Plenty of margin here to ride out further downside & UKX’s weekly dividends easily cover overall holding charges. - Regards.


#24

Closed at 7167. Settled for only 13 points this time, minus 3 days holding costs.

Reasons: mindful of today 7078 lows, this could easily fall much lower again soon if closing support of 7100+ from March is lost. Markets remain very subdued & cautious. Also still hold 2 UKX longs for better recovery, which may need patience.


#25

Closed at 7303.80 for 36+ points. Some 11+ dividend points more than covered holding costs.

Reasons: target reached, more volatility anticipated. Also prefer to book decent gains before w/ends. Down to one UKX long as in thread title. - Cheers.


#26

Well done. You booked out in a spot where bears will be watching. Target reached. Get out. That’s the ticket. Il short 7290 today if it comes but like you, not one for a weekend hold. Just a small trade. Just looking for a Friday sell off later. Will move stop to breakeven if it strikes 7271


#27

Hi Armageddon,

Thanks. Agreed, simply a logical move to book more gains in the circumstances, whatever happens later today.

As mentioned when deleveraging at loss In VOD & BARC, I also wanted to free-up margin & increase stakes for trading something I do okay with. Not brilliant, but good enough. Taken well over 650 profit points here since 1st March.

Frankly, one factor that helps me trade this: I don’t ever get wedded to UKX. I don’t care about it. Only the moves & trends. I know one shouldn’t become emotionally attached to stocks, but there’s so much biased hogwash on all investor-dominated BBs that even the usually objective can end up seeing things through a more favourable prism than is ever justified.

Mind, no excuses. Just an observation. I’m always 100% responsible for all my losses.

FWIW, I still have a little deleveraging to do with ITV & IQE. Also at loss. Then full leveraged focus will be here, bar real shares in a few stocks.

Naturally, I wish you well with your trade & hope you get your targets. If not today, then soon. - All the best!


#28

That’s what you need in all . I have zero respect for a brand name. It’s just another digit in the market.

Absolutely. Forums for entertainment only. Rarely anything to gleen from them. I know that because been entertaining myself on them for years lol.

That’s it. UKX by far the best for this type of trading.

You have it all sussed. Now just strip away the emotional attachment. Use stops. And your on a long term winner.

Stops so important. I attribute half of my monthly realised gains, to using stops.

The only time i didn’t use a stop in so many years was DEB. The market reminded me why I always do lol. So think of a stop as a smart exit. It’s as good as a win. Aggregate profit protection .

There is not a methodology in the world that can last the distance without this. (Ask woodford). You might last a cycle… but not the time.

Assured whenever major correction comes, most retail investors will lose a decade of gains (If have any), in 3-6 months. Simply because no stop management.


#29

I had your vodafone moment. I couldn’t even turn on the computer. One of my very first buys. But it truly made me. You wont feel like that now. Bet you will in a years time.


#30

Armageddon,

Thanks. Points taken on board. I try to us mental stops & I much agree that placing official stops further away can be invaluable. As you say, in case of a sudden major correction. That’s bound to happen again over time, as history shows.

However, my risk appetite for UKX is considerably greater than some traders. For eg. trade just closed went offside by over 100 points. That was fine for me. Others have gone similarly astray & been redeemed at gain. Weekly UKX dividend points tend to be generous enough to cover holding costs. But I generally agree that one should use stops as a rule, despite one’s risk appetite, though occasional hedging is another option.

Re forums in general: mindful that there are indeed BB posters who put up very constructive reasons for buying & holding stocks longer-term, I agree they tend to be the exceptions. Earlier I wrote “biased hogwash” as it’s apt. Metaphorically, many investors are a bit like pigs. Ever greedy for yet more! Many feed from the same trough, consume the same swill, then regurgitate the same sh1t. Get caught up in that utter tripe & it’ll cost one dearly.

Parroted tripe like, for example, “FCF covers divi, so it’s 100% safe!”, despite horrendously mounting debt levels. Pure ignorance. I read that strongly asserted claim countless times on various VOD BBs.

They say ignorance is bliss. It probably is… until reality kicks you in the nuts. That probably won’t happen to you as you seem far too clued-up. But I’ve been there too often. - Regards.

Catch you again soon as I need to leave my desk a while.


#31

It was the kick in the nuts that clued me up lol.

Yes I can’t stand it. It’s why i only do bear in forums.

Consider this. What if 7100 broke? 6500 was on the cards right? Now let’s say it then bounced back to your averaging down aggregate. Probably going to be maybe 6900 or 7000. Should be profiting from say 6500+ a 20 point stop out prior.

Ftse doesn’t need more than a 20 point stop. It’s generally sluggish even in volatility

Try it on demo a few times. 20 point stop. What this does is, it exits you so you can consider all again without position attachment. An unbiased new analysis. Try this rather than averaging down.

And do a bit more work in the tech side . At least before you enter have a diverged low and higher than average volume etc.

Money/sentiment overrides fundamentals. So see the above on chart as an absolute minimum requirement. Over time you’ll then learn when such a set up is actually bears at the low too.

If you continue the average down route, I very strongly recommend the above. Note: Vodafone from 230, only had this at the lows once… when 140 to 170 bounce came

Then it diverged like hell on high volume in two days at 170. Shorters back/bulls booking out.

Have a good weekend


#33

I didnt buy or short cover it because basically it was a high div debt ridden dog. Could have played it though (fundamentals stopped me making money there in that move)


#34

So take that on board. Support your fundamentals with these basics. Use stops. You’ll fly

And when your holding; watch for the opposite against you.

I could add ten more things to this but tbh, no interest in helping most here. They dont like bears haha. But hope this aids you enough anyway.


#35

Tempting to short ftse just before NFPY. Been rising into it so low risk short. Stop shall be 20 points above 1329.50pm price

Il short 7320 if triggers. But if drops from there into 1330 breakeven stop on fast


#36

Breakeven stop on now 7320. Not much swing room.


#37

Let’s hope Friday sell off can compound it now. Maybe a bit early though. Hope not


#38

Out. Too early. Left 7290 short order on regardless. Expect big cull sometime after 4.35pm. Maybe even get a higher short too.


#39

Armageddon,

Thanks for your input earlier today. Appreciated you taking the time & points taken on board. Also well done with taking some quick gains on your short. Wise to book profits. Considering the volatility, it’s probably never “too early” in my view. Especially prior to w/ends. Bound to be plenty more opportunity later.

No more UKX adds from me this week in view of recently using much increased stakes. But will trade any sharp dips next week, though also more than glad to see it rise further. In which case, I won’t add anytime soon. We’ll see how next week pans out.

By the by, I’ll qualify some of my previous, rather harsh take on the bias of certain investors. For all that, I should make clear that I think most of the ones I’ve interacted with are decent, well-meaning types, etc. For eg. some of the group on LSE can be highly defensive, to say the least, but I think they’re mostly a good bunch of people. There may be exceptions, but I have no right to disrespect anyone.

Any harsh comments I make on any aspect of poor trading, or misreading TA or fundamentals behind certain stocks, should be reserved for me only. - Regards.


#40

For me, most of them are a bunch of Muppets. But we are both entitled to the view. Doesn’t affect our chit chat.

You should get a good value point next week to buy. Can’t see NFPR supporting price after close. Was dire


#41

Armageddon,

Agree about DOW. Seems overbought on the data, but also seemed well oversold on previous fears of escalating tariff wars. I too doubt these rises will last

https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Not sure about UKX. Circa 7350+ was tested a few times in mid May, closing just below & above before the sharp drop to recent lows. No surprise if it re-tests those levels again soon.

Indeed, fine to disagree. I’m taking no oppositional stance to you, mindful of some very harsh personalised comments directed in your direction. I had no truck with that. The fact that some on there were losing huge amounts of money (far more than me, as a few later conceded) doesn’t excuse it. I also think a few of them take stuff too personally, so get easily worked up. But I’ll say no more about it. Trading is what counts. - GL with your trades as for anyone else.