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My LLOY share buys & leveraged long positions collated

lse:lloy

#22

Ok, maybe the words were harsh, as you know, I am a very short term trader.

Let me put it another way, what would have to happen to make you change your mind? Is there and reference to time or price ?


#23

Mac,

No problem. Re LLOY specifically: short of a major crash in UK property prices &, by association, UK’s economy plunging into deep recession, nothing would change my mind. Emboldening that word reflects my mindset.

As for time factors re targets? Accepting that time is relative even for pros & brokers, I anticipate taking at least some gains well into 2019, but I don’t assume it. If I needed to hold & collect more yield well beyond 2019, that won’t be a major issue for me. So possibly even for a few years.

Unless I’m over-leveraged as has been the case, I generally don’t take hits. There would have to be overwhelming stock-specific negatives, rather than sector-related downturns swayed by usually time-limited macro-factors, for me to even entertain it. I never chase markets, nor do I look for strategic selling at loss to re-enter later trying to catch bottoms. That process doesn’t even come into my calculations.

Unless fundamentals change alarmingly, I never seriously doubt that I’ll probably be right in the end. Usually, I am right, be it sometimes over longer timeframes, as reflected in my overall trading history since I commenced market activity in 02/2009. Not arrogance, but a very firm self-belief in my own approach. - Regards.


#24

Most of it depends on where else you would invest ?
If you do sell LLOY ?

We agree current situation could prevail or get worse.
For an Equity / Share Investor - its a very difficult scene.

  1. Sit out - Time + Inflation is a barrier.
  2. Other equities - Time + Research is a barrier.
  3. Other asset classes - Time + Research + Expertise is a barrier.

Its fairly difficult -
but loads of babies will get thrown out with water.
So, this is the time to buy.

LLOY doesnt have an overseas investment arm. better than other UK banks.
I bought LLOY 54p : Aiming for 7% YOY with Divi -

48-55p is a definite buy.

Many fundamentally good companies are going cheap in chaos.
but perhaps we should have a separate thread for that.

PS. I bought LLOY for my brother who is more dear to me than myself and I didnt take it lightly cause its not my money.


#25

Hi BrownAdder,

For now LLOY is my biggest holding by far. As stated with reasons, no intention of selling until profits. Even if UK house prices fall by bigger margins, historically they’ve always recovered well to continue rising. To boot, in a low rates climate under-scored by a chronic under-supply of homes, that longer-term trend is unlikely to change.

As stated, even technically LLOY is a sound bet. Little question of it. Longer-term chart indicates that the timeline of fluctuations in more negative sentiment about Brexit closely correlates with LLOY SP value.

Mind also that since the higher SP levels that show L/T resistance at circa 89p, that was before LLOY regained 100% independence from the government & still faced a huge PPI burden. Even the latter will soon be history. IMO, this will be much higher again post the chaos & uncertainty of Brexit.

My other holds: VOD, my 2nd largest. Also BARC, ITV, IQE & TSCO. I’d sell the lot once targets seen, though some will be staggered sells.

Looking well beyond LLOY et al, I’ll focus more so on FTSE 350 & ETFs. UKX is currently down to levels seen about 20 years ago. It’s performed poorly compared to other global indexes. I’ll also try to build a bigger cash position before next GE. But that depends on variables such as seeing sell targets.

Much agree a separate thread may be helpful as befits such a topic. This one was started specifically to group my still open LLOY trades. - Regards.


#26

I am positive on LLOY but for different reasons.

I do not trust House Market projections -
its fundamentally unorganised.

There is no differentiation of new houses, rental houses, homes vs apartment, high end to low end - so on and so forth.

As for your other investments, be prepared to wait as long as it can take to get to your targets. ETFs are good choice with such low levels.

But as to when you should buy, thats a case of spending time.


#27

Hi Jack,

I think it is essential that you stick with your approach. You’ve always impressed me in that respect. What caught my attention, yesterday was more the wording of your post. It is the first time I have heard adamant language from you.

The reality is, anything can happen and it is important you retain a flexible mind.

The other thing, I would point out, is you have only every invested in a bull market. The bull market is 10 years old. The average bull market last 2.5 years. Bear markets are ruthless and indiscrimatory, however, they tend to be much shorter and offer a lot of opportunity.

Many people thought the Titanic was unsinkable. Even heros like Jack Dawson didn’t make it.


#28

Hi Mac,

Thanks. Some VG points. To explain: greater adamance is partly a reactionary self-affirmation. In climates of political & economic uncertainty which may get worse, anything can happen. Especially shorter-term. We know markets hate uncertainty. Negative sentiment prevails. Fear of greater loss rises. Ideas of fair value & much else tend to be temporarily suspended.

In such sentiment-driven chaos, IMO, inner certainty is key. Unless one entered markets with predetermined intentions to crystallise losses if SPs fell to certain levels, or else we’ve new data indicating stock-specific, irrecoverable disaster, there should be no shadow of doubt about one’s objectives. Nor about why one bought certain stocks in the first place. I have no such doubts.

I’ve always been interested in crowd psychology. The more I read, the less impressed I became. Humans are overrated on various levels. Not least their susceptibility to herd behaviour, shorter-term thinking & emotional reasoning.

True what you say about some of us being limited to this bull market. But the stocks I hold are considered by many as fairly defensive, or else as with UK banks, they’re far better capitalised & already at much lower SP levels than their over-inflated values at the end of the previous bull market.

Re Jack Dawson & The Titanic. Indeed, an apt analogy for the perils of over-confidence & arrogance as Titanic had too few lifeboats. A decision taken because the liner was considered unsinkable, so more lifeboats would only obstruct passengers strolling on the decks.

FWIW, my actual alias has nothing to do with JD of the Titanic. It’s a play on the Czech-born writer Frank Kafka who was beset with no end of inner struggles. Kafka in Czech means jackdaw. As Kafka was the first serious writer I read, who opened me up to the vast riches of international literature, jackdawsson (Kafka’s son) & my avatar relates to him. - Regards.


#29

@jackdawsson

With respect that’s limited to may be businesses and that’s not where smart money lies.
Without Uncertainty financial markets will cripple - You wouldnt have VIX without it - or LIBOR or hedging - Biggest Global market is FX - which reflects uncertainty every second of global life span.

Uncertainty which you mention can be even more profitable
Some fundamental and inelastic products/services soar during uncertainty.
You could use that and invest if you expect prolonged uncertainty.

Health Provision is one but bit late for Investing through VCTs.
Food second and perhaps most important.

You must have heard about Soy Bean as pinnacle of Trade War.

Huge and Wealthy Chinese Population are hunting for food. They cant produce enough to feed themselves. China is hugely investing and subsidising farmers on its road belt plan. Similar fate awaits Western Europe.
Its a great time to research and get into Food Staples.

Inevitably most good opportunities will not be available through Equities.
If confident you could always utilise Futures instrument- ask @macbonzo - that’s my choice to restrict losses.

Inflation or lack of it - is the biggest signal one could have and its been there for a good year now and growing faster

Inflation + Uncertainty = Bonanza !


#30

BA, what does bonanza mean, is it market turmoil and opportunity?


#31

Hi BA,

Of course it’s not limited to businesses. Both macro-economic & political uncertainty rarely lead to bullish markets in general. To the contrary, we tend to see increased sell-offs. Stock markets in general hate uncertainty.

Trading VIX, Libor & Forex are more specialised fields for mostly pro traders. Shorting as a hedge or exclusively is yet another tool for when markets undergo heightened uncertainty. This has little to do with my point regarding LLOY & stocks in general.

Another point: as mentioned earlier, kindly maybe create a separate thread for discussing VIX, Libor & the like in greater detail as some of this stuff has little to do with LLOY. Thanks in advance. - Regards.

Edit: Deleted an unnecessarily curt comment due to issues elsewhere.


#32

I’ve not topped up here since my 58.31p last month

Its been painful drop and been holding back buying

I built up a few bob in cash holding back, I slightly changed my strategy this time around but will post any top ups and will be Juicy ones

Dividend alone here is worth holding firm and not worrying too much about it these days compared to compared bad old days of 2010 to 2013 we never got a sniff of a dividend and still bounced back big time

All UK Stocks are looking like value stocks today IMHO

Canny investors will pick up a 50% capital gain on top over next few years with a UK high Yielding dividend shares

As Jack says ‘’ you will never hit the bottom and never hit the top prices ‘’ but timing is everything :wink:


#33

Hi Regardless,

I agree with you about LLOY. Whilst BrownAdder make some valid points, for the vast majority of retail investors & traders involved in FTSE stocks, what I wrote definitely applies.

For example, there are many cases of amateur traders with good day jobs who entered Forex trading only to regret it deeply. Examples abound of retail FX traders running up alarming 5 & even 6-figure losses within fairly short timeframes. Lives have been destroyed.

This is another reason why such topics deserve their own thread for those who may be interested in taking on both the higher leverage needed & far greater risk. Frankly, it’s just not a viable option for most retail traders. One report I read states that about 96% of FX traders lose. Even if the true figure is slightly lower, that should serve as a clear warning to most.

So-called “smart money” that BA mentions is confined to highly seasoned pros with ample resources, who are also prepared to pay serious money to access the most up-to-date financial info daily. Systems such as Bloomberg’s Terminal, which costs about $24,000 a year. A very different world from the one that most of us who are amateur investors & traders inhabit. - Regards.


#34

Jack you gave the trading a go over the years and actually still here so must of done ok

Personally I am at my best holding losing trades, I don’t have the pressure to need to sell

Easy to buy Lloyds at 54p I have issues with selling my babes

Crazy I know

52p my original average in 2010 had 103,000 Lloy shares in 2013 when I first sold, nearly 500,000 Today

Loving it


#35

Moral of the story IS

I AM DOUBLE TROUBLE


#36

@jackdawsson
My apologies I failed to explain clearly, will revisit LLOY in few months, Long for now


#37

@BrownAdder,

Thanks. But you’ve nothing to apologise for. More so, we’re coming at this from quite different angles. Hence some disagreement. That’s partly down to me. Perhaps I was a bit too wired yesterday due to unrelated reasons.

My comment intended to apply to most (though not all) individual market participants, not least those of retail status. Your comment covered a much wider market, including seasoned professionals & hedge funds who trade various highly leveraged, volatile global markets. For some of these, no doubt that heightened market uncertainty leads to more profit opportunities. That’s unlikely to be the case for the majority of individuals & some investment funds already heavily staked in stocks, with exceptions.

To clarify further, I have no wish to stifle wider debate. - Regards.


#38

Closed at 57.46. Booked 2+ points.

Reasons: I anticipate further steady rises over this year (post-PPI etc.) & no surprise if we re-test 73 resistance later. However, this position was leveraged. I’m building a bigger cash position & I’ve enough exposure left here for higher targets: 5 more longs & 4 tranches of shares. - GLA.


#39

Closed another SB long at 63.05 for 1.5+ pts gain after a decent rise recently. Reasons: simply reducing risks of leverage. I’ve still 4 SB longs left & 4 tranches of shares. Altogether enough exposure for more potential volatility post-Brexit. - GLA.


#40

Closed at 64.61 - 2 longs at 62.93 & 63.22.

Two leveraged longs left out of six initially, with 4 tranches of real shares for higher. - GLA.


#41

Closed at 65.75 for 2+ pts - long 63.68.

Reasons: glad to book more gains with leveraged positions, freeing up margin for other trading. One final long left at 63.90 & 4 tranches of shares for higher targets. - GLA.