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My LLOY share buys & leveraged long positions collated

lse:lloy

#42

Long at 63.59. Reasons as before. Will look to close this latest add & an existing SB long at 63.90 together at circa 66+ when seen. My LLOY shares I’ll review higher up. - GLA.


#43

Both closed at 65.31. Also 2.14p in dividends collected recently. Reasons as before: leveraged trades & volatility expected to continue. Those two were the last of 7 LLOY longs here.

Will start to settle some of my 4 real share tranches earlier than previously intended due to anticipating more volatility later. Those as posted here: at 62.29, 64.58, 65.16 & 66.78. Multiple divis taken on some of these.

Staggered exits with these shares likely to tempt me starting at levels a bit higher up. - GLA.


#44

Jack well done mate

Patience pays in this game

IF we can jump above 66p all my Lloyds buys IN 2018 are all back in the black

Personally would love to see 70p plus again here

Fresh Capital flowing back into the FTSE 100 UK buying the sold off / Un-loved stocks again that was sold off in 2018

UK PLC GOING TO FLY

Keep the faith


#45

Hi Regardless,

Thanks for generous comment. Appreciated, though I’m actually less than pleased with myself & some poor timing here. Glad to have exited all leveraged longs here & no plans to re-enter or go short.

Always glad to read of your continued progress via a more patient, L/T game. IMO, much to be said for sticking by the approach you know works well for you & has done for a good decade so far. Sincerely hope you get your targets sooner than later.

IMO, it’s likely that LLOY may remain a binary bet on Brexit for some while yet. Brexit Deal or no Brexit, with no early GE, then LLOY ought to continue recovering well. OTOH, No-Deal & most UK banks will reverse some way again.

What chance of the current squabbling clowns in the HoC actually agreeing to any Deal by 31st October? Realistically, though it’s not inconceivable, it seems more likely that we’ll see further kicking of the Brexit can down the road. As unlikely as No-Deal or another early GE may seem, IMO, neither of these can be ruled out.

Needless to say, my trading decisions aren’t intended to sway anyone else. I accept I’ll not exit anywhere near the tops. So to each their own has to apply. I’ve my own agenda, as do you & others. Mine is partly to build a substantially bigger cash position well before next GE. - Regards & GL.


#46

Closed at 66.13 . Sold one of 4 tranches of shares from July '18.

Reasons: I anticipate further volatility & LLOY remains a binary play on Brexit & UK property market. Neither convinces me greatly over foreseeable future. Also we’ve possible further resistance around this level. But if not, that’s fine. Plenty of shares left for higher. Recent rise in line with FTSE due to weakening Sterling & positive jobs data.

Couple of dividends also taken on this since buying July 2018 at: 2.14p & 1.07p. - GLA.


#47

Sold 66.60 - buy 64.58. Another tranche sold for reasons as before. In brief: little to no faith in UK government with Brexit & little confidence in UK housing market. Volume also looks to be dipping.

Divis collected on this same as prior tranche: 2.14p & 1.07p. Now just 2 tranches left. - GLA.


#48

Tasty Trade Jack

Dropping like a stone today sadly :frowning:


#49

Hi Regardless,

Thanks. Very volatile markets. Stering getting sold down again. You’ll also know of other hurdles ahead.

My decision to book profits & reduce my exposure massively in recent weeks has little to do with LLOY itself. I want to exit all UK banks gradually as opportunity grants. Not least BARC, where I still hold 1 tranche & considerable leveraged exposure.

I may be very wrong, but my considered view of UK PLC has transformed significantly in recent months.

Aside from expected weekly fluctuations, longer-term we face huge risks. LLOY is a play not only on UK’s economy & Brexit outcome, but also an inept government & a very radical main opposition. If all things were equal, I’d say LLOY was still a VG bet for 80+ next year. But that could be delayed.

The current chaos in UK may continue for some time yet, even resulting in a Labour/SNP coalition by 2022, if not sooner. That would hit confidence behind most sectors, not least banks. All scenarios are possible by 2022. No cast-iron predictions mind, but something I remain open-minded about.

There are no 100% safe bets within any timeline in the FTSE or any other global index. Sometimes it takes years for a decisive turnaround for various macro-factors that may have little to do with the stocks themselves. Such is the nature of stock markets & all things related. Hence my intent to build a bigger cash position. - Regards & GL. - Typo edit.


#50

Hi Jack

Well Done.

My own personal view on UK more or less mirrors yours.

I am also increasing cash position, gradually.
Goes somewhat against the grain as I am a very active trader but it is all too easy to be caught out with large swings.

Markets very hard to call currently.

ATB

soi


#51

Buy at 62.48. Reasons: despite selling most of my LLOY recently, a strategic re-add of a 3rd tranche to bring down my average on 2 remaining tranches at 65.16 & 66.78, as posted here. This add significantly lower than any of my sells.

I’m still targeting a total exit from LLOY later this year if things go my way, which isn’t certain. Circa 66+, also a recent resistance level, might seriously tempt me to offload 2 tranches of 3 held. Then try to repeat the process or, if we see break-out past 66+ resistance, settle the last one for higher.

Needless to say, this has been disappointing considering markets typically look ahead, PPI is ending in August & UK housing market has on the whole remained robust. As Bowman highlighted elsewhere, the share buyback is consistently undermined by the sheer number of new shares created for directors bonuses. Bonuses for what, we may well ask? We’ve seen only relative failure to deliver real value for LLOY holders & it’s gone on for far too long. If UK’s housing market sees a sharper downturn, this is likely to be back in trouble. - GLA.


#52

I agree with pretty much all that. By any stretch of the imagination LLOYDs has been very disappointing over the last 2 years. The market is a discounting mechanism so PPI, as far as I’m concerned, is a non sequitur. The housing market has held up, much, better than I imagined, but, for how long? The top end of the market, certainly corrected, but I wonder if people at lower levels are experiencing an information deficit? It may be that people stick their heads in the sand until they see big falls in estate agents windows.

Either way, I think you have done a good job.


#53

Hi Mac,

Thanks for some VG points re PPI & UK’s housing market. Despite my plans to exit this, for those staying strongly bullish here, I’ll clarify that I don’t rule out a case for banks like LLOY’s being significantly higher again in the next 12 to 18 months. For eg. if Brexit sees a favourable resolution, UK house prices continue avoiding sharper falls, impairments don’t rise too much, UK’s government doesn’t implode, etc. But we know nothing is a given. Not least in this sector. We’ve many variables related to UK’s current political & economic macro-climate, as well as germane global factors in economies like EU’s.

In a bear-case argument, much the opposite applies. Also, banking models are ever changing. Some changes aren’t merely cyclical. Same applies to other sectors. Here, for eg., Challenger banks, many offering digital-only services with fewer overheads, are growing in popularity among younger clients. Those like Monzo Bank already have over a million accounts. That trend seems likely to continue.

IMO, bottom-end of UK’s housing market is still bucked by schemes like “Help To Buy”, which also helps boost property developers profits. But it’s a double-edged sword. Such schemes also add to potential time-bombs in over-inflated prices when UK’s economy sees inevitable longer downturns, if not another full-scale recession.

So where could LLOY’s go in the next year or so? I’ve no longer any confident idea. Conceivably, either well over 70p, or back down to well below 60p. I sincerely hope it’s the former. Especially for those who may have too many eggs in this basket. However, I don’t intend to stick around to find out. If we revisit levels of 66+, I’ll reduce further, if not exit altogether.

If it still goes to well over 70p after I’m out, I’ll be glad for those still holding. They’ll have deserved their rewards. I know I’ve a VG chance of making more from my capital elsewhere & I’ve done so recently, mindful that more errors are also inevitable.

Thanks for your generosity, but I’ve also made badly mistimed entries here as SP fell below 50p intraday as recently as late December, 2018. It won’t take that much for it to fall back again. In recent years, ongoing disappointment seems almost par for the course for much of this sector.

What’s seen me through has been a time-honoured patient approach, knowing stocks get badly oversold as at other times they’re badly overbought & some slight consolation in collecting yield.

PS: If all goes remotely to plan, I’ll exit the last of my LLOY’s at gain before 2020. But as usual, nothing guaranteed. - Regards. Edit: typo.


#54

Buy at 52.55. Added a 4th tranche of shares for a longer-term hold. Probably well into 2020 or after.

Target on these, circa 73 to 74+, ie. a 40% profit. Also like that LLOY is increasing its yield & will pay quarterly divis from 2020.

Used proceeds from today’s VOD sale to buy this, so time will tell if justified. But I feel this call was the right one for me. - GLA.


#55

Hi @jackdawson, Is that right that you’ve just sold your VOD ?. With its big recovery I’d have thought that you would be hanging in there ?. Or did you get back to a plus score and decide to quit while you were ahead ?. Market seems to like the latest idea of selling off the towers, not so sure its a great idea myself but we’ll see. No intention of investing there myself.

LLOY looking interesting today though 48.75 now, thats back where it was at the end of last year but now with a 6.8% yield !. I might even have considered it (even given my aversion to holding single stocks) but I am pretty well 100% invested right now and am just hunkering down and collecting the dividends.

btw Why did you buy LLOY before XD though ?. Personally I ALWAYS buy after to get the more shares and the benefit of the price drop. I expect you have your reasons though…

Hope it works out for you.

ATB

Pref


#56

Hi @PrefInvestor1,

Thanks. Indeed, a final & long-planned hit on my VOD shares taken 8 days ago at 151. Losses crystallised on 175+ & 198+ tranches as posted on my VOD 198.32 buy thread. Despite consolation of previous dividends, still a substantial hit which, tellingly, I rarely ever take on real shares.

Why so? Without dwelling too much on what’s past, while I naturally hope VOD continues recovering for existing holders, I’m glad to be out having ridden the roller-coaster all the way down to 123+ closing lows (even lower intraday), to what I thought was a good point to exit after a substantial enough rise likely to see greater resistance at circa 152+. Not a certainty mind, but just my view.

I’d also lost confidence in VOD, especially after previous support went at 143+. Plus, its recent rise has left a price gap below at 132. IMO, that may be fillable on the next negative news.

VOD’s planned sale of their masts to reduce debt, IMO, seems a short-term fix. While it’s patently pleased markets, VOD will lose valuable key assets & have to rent them back in future. But their other core problems remain. Falling revenues, poor growth prospects, likely downturns in key markets, competition strong & liable to keep profits down, et al.

Also, what I hadn’t fully appreciated before the huge expense of 5G, is that every so often companies like VOD need to spend 10s of billions merely to upgrade technology, which often sees no benefit to shareholders. All forecasts I’ve read indicate that consumer uptake of 5G may be slow. General projection is that 70% of smart-phone users will still be on 4G by 2023.

As for my LLOY add, which I already hold a substantial stake in despite ample trading: you’ll appreciate I didn’t buy back only for dividends. Mindful that one rarely buys exact lows, this is a planned L/T hold for an improving UK economic climate, post-Brexit. I also wanted to avoid licking my financial wounds or brood over my VOD losses & get back in market with those same proceeds on the same day.

Today SP knocked back by ex-date & a new report about flatlining UK housing market. But as I expressed to Regardless & others on the “Shafted” & other threads, I’ve relatively few concerns for LLOY over longer-term. I have a target of circa 73+ for my recent add. Why 73+? It’s also a longer -term resistance level. Other tranches may be traded for lower as booking some gains seems never a bad thing.

Mindful of the global challenges ahead, & for UK not least Brexit’s uncertainties, whatever happens to UK PLC over the foreseeable future, there are solid historical reasons why the long-term trajectory for UK housing markets is firmly back up after any dips, or even recession. I think that’s more likely to continue than not.

I also plan to re-invest LLOY dividends via DRIP. Hopefully, I’ll see my highest target by late 2021 to early 2022. But that’s not gospel.

LLOY is a main interest of mine, but I also trade regularly, especially via leverage. Plus, I hold other stocks with a view to sitting for longer timeframes. - Regards.


#57

Hi Again @jackdawsson, Sorry for the delay in replying but I was out all day yesterday. I have been negative on VOD for a long time now, since my own exit at around 150 in Oct 2018. Too much debt, too much competition, India problems, not enough profit etc. Not convinced that the tower sale is a great idea either, though the market clearly does. I shall watch it with half an eye as usual but no plans to invest there.

Good luck with your Lloyds. Must eventually come good I always think but there always seems to be some problem, I like the yield now - but may see lower levels if brexit goes bad though…

Didnt I see a post somewhere that you had just bought Centrica - wow good luck with that. Big turnaround required.

You mentioned trading with leverage in your reply to me - but I thought that you had previously stated that you were going to stop doing that ?. Easy to make big losses I think. You take care.

Good luck with all your picks.

ATB

Pref


#58

Hi @PrefInvestor1,

Thanks again & no problem with any delayed response. Any of us can be busy with matters unrelated to markets at any time.

You did well to exit VOD when you did, having foreseen some of its greater risks & a likely dividend-cut well before others. Credit as due. I recall some investors had argued strongly that VOD’s FCF covered dividends & debt was still manageable in various worst-case scenarios. It wasn’t to be. FWIW, I still think that stock is far from out of the woods. Like you, I’ve also no plans to buy again even if SP falls back.

Bought CNA at 74.95, largely for a technical gap left at 90.84 from its close on 29th July. It opened 83p next day. Whilst some gaps never get filled, this one seems fillable with a new CEO due later & recently announced debt-reduction plans in place. Typically missed buying near the bottom, but nothing new there.

Regarding leverage? Indeed, I’ve expressed plenty of strong doubts about continuing due to still carrying net losses with spread-betting. I started February 2011. Much prefer real shares. However, I’ve continued to trade UKX via SBs.

Why so? It’s as basic as I want to try & get my losses back. That’s very important to me & some of my future plans.

I find trading UKX in both directions is more straightforward, not least for having no emotion involved. I’m more detached & neutral when trading indices. For as much as one guards against having any emotional connection in markets, when invested heavily in a stock it’s still all too easy for some of us to be blinded by confirmation bias, over-optimism, denial & the like.

I’m still a significant way off from breaking even with SBs. Possibly, I may get my previous BARC & VOD leveraged losses back by October or sooner. But even if I trade as well as in recent months, it’s not doable that I’ll get all my SB losses back before end of 2020 at the earliest. That’s assuming few serious setbacks.

Financially, it’s been a most chastening experience. Despite that, I just know that now is not the right time for me to capitulate.

Likewise all the best with your investments. From various posts of your’s that I’ve read, patently you’ve made some VG calls overall. Hope that continues. - Regards.


#59

Hi Jack,

I am no expert on 5G but I think it is a money pit and will take many years to roll out at horrendous cost. From what I have read 5G works around 26.5 Ghz the high frequency means it’s capable of very high data rates. The downside is that 26 GHz is very directional and does not penetrate buildings at all well. The articles I’ve read say that at best the range is around 500 metres at worst maybe 250 metres. That means enormous numbers of base stations. 3/4G works around 1.5Ghz or so, much longer range and is better at penetrating buildings. All 5G handsets at the moment will work on 3, 4 and 5G. So wherever 5G is rolled out it will work great over a very small area, then seamlessly switch to 4G. If you are not transmitting large amounts of data you will never notice unless you are looking at your phone. There are still parts of the UK that don’t have 4G. At the moment they seem to be holding prices down to gain customers. I think all Cellphone companies are going to be short of cash/have growing debts for many years to come. Selling the masts may reduce short term debt but I bet within a year or two debt will be up to current levels.


#60

Hi Peter,

Thanks for fleshing out some key points on this with greater detail. Appreciated & I couldn’t agree more.

I too am no expert on 5G. But what you say is also borne out by a few recent, objective reports expressing similar & other concerns, notwithstanding the added benefits that 5G brings. Especially to some businesses. But it’ll be years before VOD can fully capitalise on the profit potential of 5G, or it becomes the standard for ordinary smart-phone owners.

So it’s quite sobering & slightly alarming to see how many VOD investors on other sites seem to be totally ignoring these & other issues. It’s almost as if the planned mast sale to reduce debt has fixed everything that counts. Some holders are even already anticipating & discussing a time when VOD’s dividends will start to rise again. This despite a cut of over 40% only weeks ago.

I sincerely hope I’m wrong for VOD holders, some of whom I’ve got to know via discussion BBs as generally decent people who I want to succeed. But I really see a long road to recovery for those invested in VOD from much higher up. - Regards.


#61

Lloyd’s is now remarkable close to 46p , this is (imho) the pivotal point of a major correction should it be reached.