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New Buy Back Oct 2019

lse:sle

#41

No, I don’t either. i tried posting on lse.co.uk where there are some old people from here that used to post to see if they have any ideas as to what SLE re trying to achieve with this buyback, and I just got a lot of abuse, basically, and typical answers such as ‘is the company not Tosca who decided to do the buyback’.

This conveniently overlooks that the board works for the shareholders in any company and that Tosca, with 72% of voting shares’ had to vote for the buyback at the AGM.

So no change from that bunch of sheep who I could point to several predictions for the company they made here and got wrong - not to mention predictions i made that were correct and which they spent a long, long time rubbishing.

Really, given that there have been no answers from anyone here and the avoidance of answers from those who like to cosy up to O.F. at shareholder meetings (the only reason i thought they might have some idea of the motivation for the buyback as they are generally clueless themselves) etc then the conclusions I have come to are that:

  1. Tosca and friends are using monies (generated by the loan notes) that are supposed to be paid back to the shareholders to reduce the number of shares and enlarge their own percentage holding. I guess this makes it ultimately easier (cheaper) for them to take the company private. It is mostly their own money, of course, but some people will squeeze every last bit of blood out of the stone if they can. Its hard to see any other motivation.

However, I’ll try for reasons of fairness …

  1. They are putting off paying out the money owing, by way of ‘dividend to be announced in due course’, which is supposedly on hand to the tune of over $30m for reasons I cannot fathom.

  2. They are obliged, by terms of the 2016 agreement to make a bi-annual return of cash to shareholders. They may announce another buyback when this one finishes, probably mid Jan, and might just possibly argue that they have fulfilled their agreement to make to re-payments within the year.

They would still have plenty of cash on hand which they can’t just disappear though, so why they’d do that i don’t know, but I wouldn’t rule anything out with SLE. I’m afraid that loan note cash may somehow make its way into the losing operational side and shareholders wont ever see it again.
This would take a EGM or be done at the next AGM, but of course we already know the outcome of any vote.

  1. Maybe they genuinely believe SLE is undervalued by the market, in which case a buyback is generally a good idea, especially if the price keeps falling…

The thing is, when management truly believe this is the case and choose to use cash for a buyback, they normally can’t shout it loud enough and they buy heavily while the price is down and then stop when they achieve a certain predetermined market price (as set out in pre-defined parameters to the third party that conducts the buyback).

  1. Maybe they hoped a buyback would hold up the price, which it largely has so far, just. Why would they care? It means anyone making an offer to buy out the company would expect to pay a premium to the current market cap.

The problem with 5) is that a) Tosca can say no whatever the offer is if they wish and b) it would have to be a helluva a premium from here for most holders to make any money, including Tosca.

We’ve seen no sight or sound of the parameters SLE have given to Cantor about how to conduct the buyback. That isn’t that unusual in itself, but there is also nothing stopping them telling us what they hope to achieve.

What we have seen is an apparent instruction to spend £25k per day on shares in one lump sum which is just about the worst way to conduct a buyback usually.

It is especially strange as the buyback is defined is US dollars, so such an apparent instruction makes the length of the buyback entirely dependant on the exchange rate which, when the buyback was announced, had every chance of being erratic as hell during the period of the buyback.

It is pure luck that it has actually stayed around 1.28-1.30 GBP/USD for the whole period, a length of stability not seen in the exchange markets for this currency pair for at least 4 years prior to this period.

SLE are terrible communicators though which is why i always believed the share price would slip down over the summer. Mind you, I wasn’t expecting a loss in H1 either, so it has gone much lower than I expected.

It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest is SLE’s motivations were ‘buybacks are fashionable lets do one because we have all this cash on hand’ I find it hard to believe Martin Hughes of Tosca would swallow that line though, however it was presented.

I wonder why they extended those warrants for Brandon Hill (30 sept RNS). A deal is a deal … what was THAT all about? Seems like some friends do get favours, that is potentially giving away a gift worth nearly as much as this buyback … of our money.

I can’t wait to wash my hand off this company, to be honest. If i get the chance to sell out @35p before next summer I’ll be gone for good with my profits this time. The loan note cash only lasts for so long and if you can’t make a tier 1 asset like oml18 pay, there really isn’t much hope.


#42

Date ++ Shares ++ Price ++ Total. Running Total*
18 Oct . 94,482 -26.46p £25,250 $32,572
21 Oct . 29,000 -27.91p .£8,174 $43,199
22 Oct. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $75,771
23 Oct. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $108,283
24 Oct. 88,192 -28.35p £25,252 $‭140,859
25 Oct. --------- --------- £--------- $140,859
28 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $173,178
29 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $205,750 10% completed
30 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $‭238,322
31 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $270,895
01 Nov. 88,967 -28.10p £25,250 $303,467
04 Nov. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $336,040
05 Nov. 92,165 -27.125p £25,250 $368,612
06 Nov. 92,592 -27.00p £25,250 $401,184 20% Completed
07 Nov. 90,909 -27.50p £25,250 $433,504
08. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $‭465,824
11. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $‭498,144 25% Completed
12. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $530,464
13. Nov. 91,575, -27.30p £25,250 $‭562,784
14. Nov. 93,283 -26.30p £25,250 $595,104 30% completed
15. Nov. 92,250 -27.10p £25,250 $627,677
18. Nov. 94,339 -26.50p £25,250 $660,502 1/3rd completed
19. Nov. 95,419 -26.20p £25,250 $693,074
20. Nov. 97,656 -25.60p £25,250 $725,646
21. Nov. 97,276 -25.70p £25,250 $758,215
22. Nov. 98,039 -25.50p £25,250 $790,535
25. Nov. 96,153 @26.00p £25,250 $823,107 approx 41% completed
26. Nov. 95,419 @26.20p £25,250 $855,680

There have been blocks of 100,000 shares released into the market 7 out of the last 9 trading days, negating the buyback demand. If these are coming from one source then they must be nearly exhausted otherwise, if their holding had been very much bigger, they’d be liable to notify it under the regulations and consequently any sales we’d also know about.

The price has at least held around @26p since the bottom (for the buyback) so far of @25.50p. Hopefully that may be a sign.

However, if I attempt to buy, say, 20,000 shares online I get a quote immediately, if i try to sell 20,000 I’m told no quote can be given. That would seem to suggest still plenty of supply and not much demand, at least via my broker (ii). There is not much more testing that I can do besides that though.

Total number of Ordinary Shares in issue with voting rights now 453,201,858

*Approx Running total in US Dollars inc. 1% stamp duty Fx rate taken from US close and rounded to the nearest cent.


#43

Eadwig - Thanks, I hadn’t realised they were obliged to return cash I only remember there was talk of returning cash - good - I suppose if they are in fact under some kind of commitment to return cash wouldn’t a share buyback be the cheapest option which full fills their obligation whilst being an attempt to stop the share price falling to an even lower level than today. Going forward I assume more of the same, no dividends, only an attempt to support the share price until news of further development of OML18 with the arrival and certification by the Nigerian authorities of Eli the Akaso and connection of associated new pipelines. Talking about new pipelines and wells it does seem an age since they had completed their last well and were " excitedly" moving the rig to commence the next well - wonder what happened to that - are the existing pipelines to Bonney Terminal so damaged they can’t use them to their full capacities resulting in output restrictions with SLE and having to share them with others - they did mention they had difficulty in testing the latest well due to pipeline downtime - if we have to wait for the alternative pipeline network to the FSO before we can really start continuously to export oil/increase revenue we are going to be well into next year.


#44

I’ve never known SLE ever complete anything like that in a timely fashion. It is one of the reasons why the share price is where it is in my opinion because they’ve failed to deliver on time so many times there isn’t much trust left.

A dividend of unknown amount has been announced as to be paid “in due course”. From the H1 30 Sept RNS…

"· During 2019 to date US$37.8 million (30 June 2018: US$37.7 million) has been received in relation to payments due to San Leon under the US$174.5 million Loan Notes

· The Company is scheduled to continue to be repaid against the Loan Notes, the balance of which is currently US$133.8 million, on a cash receipts basis

· The Company anticipates announcing its first dividend in due course, as part of its shareholder distribution policy"

The shareholder distribution policy is part of the agreement that was put in place to raise the cash for OML18 back in 2016. If you look at that document and do a search on dividend you will find a section that refers to bi-annual payments that may take the form of dividends or share buybacks (I forget the exact language).

These loan notes were delayed in being paid but were eventually the source of the cash for the last buyback. I assume that this new $2m buyback money has come out of the pool of $37.8m cash due to be distributed to shareholders … that should be bigger now as another quarter has passed.

My concern for holding longer term, assuming those loan notes do all get paid back as promised, is that all this cash is coming from the loan notes and the balance, as shown, is reducing and wont last forever.

Meanwhile SLE is not actually making any money from production, or its share of production, it is making losses which is concerning given OML18 is a tier 1 world class asset.

This is troubling the share price more than anything else, I’m sure. That and SLE have no track record of profitable production ever. Although it is Eroton who are the producers here, SLE have ‘an indirect’ interest only. They also have a contract to supply work on the OMl 18 wells , but I haven’t seen any sign of that paying off. It has barely started, if I remember correctly, there wasn’t any cash flow for Eroton to pay for such services for quite a while when payments were held up.

SLE should have turned themselves into a finance company, in my opinion, because the loan note deal was very well done and has generated cash, albeit with delays in payments that weren’t really SLE’s fault particularly.

There is excitement among some shareholders that the new offshore collection unit is on its way which should improve losses from the pipeline system - but I happened to be looking something else up about oil tankers (this storage unit is just a converted old tanker with a few years of life left in the hull) and losses from such storage offshore is just about as rife as it is from onshore pipelines. Plus the oil still has to use pipelines to get out to the storage.

The one thing it may do is give SLE more oversight of the numbers and how losses are being shared out between concerned parties. That could be significant. The main reason SLE got the chance to buy this piece of OML18 was that the previous owner was going bankrupt and in great part blamed that on pipeline losses that were attributed to them in greater than a fair proportion (they felt). This back when they had oil price hedged at $90, which we don’t hear anything about these days. Unfortunately i don’t any longer have a link to their documentation which was online as a public company for anyone to see … but probably isn’t anymore as they wen’t out of business.

I wonder if with these new wells and extra production with the price of oil where it is currently whether or not SLE can actually make an operating profit. They do have other interests, of course, but they are minor and I have little to no faith in any of them ever producing revenues, except maybe through selling the asset off. That will probably be more of a cost reduction than anything though.

The hope for holders is there is still that loan note generated cash to come. Over time OML18 production (and losses) may well be sorted and SLE will be in operating profit and assigned a market value accordingly. Like everything in Nigeria, it tends to be a long battle though, especially in the political hot spot of the oil and gas producing delta region where most of the country’s cash comes from.


#45

[quote=“Eadwig, post:42, topic:1150542”]
Date ++ Shares ++ Price ++ Total. Running Total*
18 Oct . 94,482 -26.46p £25,250 $32,572
21 Oct . 29,000 -27.91p .£8,174 $43,199
22 Oct. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $75,771
23 Oct. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $108,283
24 Oct. 88,192 -28.35p £25,252 $‭140,859
25 Oct. --------- --------- £--------- $140,859
28 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $173,178
29 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $205,750 10% completed
30 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $‭238,322
31 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $270,895
01 Nov. 88,967 -28.10p £25,250 $303,467
04 Nov. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $336,040
05 Nov. 92,165 -27.125p £25,250 $368,612
06 Nov. 92,592 -27.00p £25,250 $401,184 20% Completed
07 Nov. 90,909 -27.50p £25,250 $433,504
08. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $‭465,824
11. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $‭498,144 25% Completed
12. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $530,464
13. Nov. 91,575, -27.30p £25,250 $‭562,784
14. Nov. 93,283 -26.30p £25,250 $595,104 30% completed
15. Nov. 92,250 -27.10p £25,250 $627,677
18. Nov. 94,339 -26.50p £25,250 $660,502 1/3rd completed
19. Nov. 95,419 -26.20p £25,250 $693,074
20. Nov. 97,656 -25.60p £25,250 $725,646
21. Nov. 97,276 -25.70p £25,250 $758,215
22. Nov. 98,039 -25.50p £25,250 $790,535
25. Nov. 96,153 @26.00p £25,250 $823,107 approx 41% completed
26. Nov. 95,419 @26.20p £25,250 $855,680
27. Nov. 97,513 @25.64p £25,250 $888,252

Total number of Ordinary Shares in issue with voting rights now 453,104,345

*Approx Running total in US Dollars inc. 1% stamp duty Fx rate taken from US close and rounded to the nearest cent.


#46

Re the new export system due 2nd quarter 2020,
it looks like our converted FSO is very much on schedule for delivery soon off the Niger Delta. This will be transformational to effective production from the field… to remind this extract is from our last report:
'The poor third party performance in the export system is expected to be resolved by the implementation of the new alternative crude oil evacuation and storage system (“ACOES”) for the purpose of transporting, storing and evacuating crude oil from OML 18 export pipeline (“Pipeline”) running from within the OML 18 acreage and down to the open sea to a dedicated Floating Storage and Offloading (“FSO”) vessel.

· Eroton informs the Company that it has concluded and executed an agreement with Energy Link Infrastructure (Malta) Limited (“ELI”), for ELI to finance and construct the ACOES. The FSO (“ELI Akaso”) has been procured and the required conversion works completed, and is currently being fitted with a LACT unit in Malaysia while awaiting final certification by the Nigerian Department of Petroleum Resources. The FSO is expected to set sail for Nigeria in November 2019. Work on the pipeline system is ongoing and the expectation is that the completed ACOES system will be commissioned in the second quarter of 2020. Once commissioned, the system is expected by Eroton to reduce the downtime and allocated pipeline losses currently associated with the Nembe Creek Trunk Line (“NCTL”), which were responsible for the majority of the 15,000 bopd difference between gross production when the pipeline is running, and average sales oil. In addition, it is anticipated that the FSO project will improve overall well uptime.’


#47

there seems to be confusion (created deliberately by some of our resident trolls and indeed by the poster formerly known as ‘resident bore’) about the new ACOES currently being prepared for OML18 and what it effect will be for our oil production. to remind ACOES is Alternative Crude Oil Export System. it will comprise a new dedicated and secure pipeline for OML18, which runs out of the delta a short distance to sea to an FSO (floating storage and offloading). such systems are very well known and widely used. typically older VLCCs (very large crude carriers) are ideally used for the fso. obviously they first have to be refurbished and converted for use as an fso. given the current poor performance of the NCTL and the level of losses, such a system is ideal for OML18 and should transform the fortunes of the field. the company has told us it expects losses to be virtually eliminated. If you consider that our 10% interest in this world class oil field (which is the size of Bahrain) is currently valued at less than zero in our SP, what value do you put on it once the field is producing effectively and efficiently again next year? at this point we will no longer be using the creaking Nembe Creek pipeline, nor indeed the old Bonny Island terminal. The new export system will be totally dedicated to our oil from OML18. I suggest to readers that, in terms of AIM oilies right now, the value proposition in San Leon is quite exceptional. We are NOT an explorer: OML18 is a world class producing asset. The single issue it faces is pipeline losses, which gets resolved next year with the new export system. And remember our downside is limited : we have $40m in the bank. and another $140m more to come (this year/next) secured. San Leon isn’t going anywhere soon : it’s going to be around for some considerable time, unless it gets taken over. In dollars our market cap at close yesterday was only just over $150m! For chrissake Jite Okoloko could practically buy us for the debt he owes us next year!! Except of course we are not for sale at this absurd price, which absurd little cameo again demonstrates the value proposition. So do your own research and do the maths on this. What value do you place on our 10% interest in the second half of next year when the ACOES is commissioned ? I repeat: the value proposition here is quite remarkable.


#48

Yes, so you’ve been saying for 4 years, but we know you are biased and blinkered and, most importantly, HAVE ALWAYS BEEN WRONG while attacking those who are right, not with valid arguments but abusive posts. The clue is in the way you use “we” and “our” when talking about an investment.

Run along back to your fellow trolls at LSE, Alaric. Your long posts without paragraphs are boring - and off topic.


#49

When didn’t SLE have something due? And when did they ever deliver on time??

If you are part of the company, Alaric, please explain what the buyback is supposed to achieve, which is what this thread is about.

And if you are, or identify so closely with it that you think of yourself as an insider, what sort of value does this statement have?

When have you ever said anything different? Or ever criticised SLE at all, come to that? All you have ever done is talk up the share price, unsuccessfully, and abuse people who have had the temerity to ask questions.


#50

Date ++ Shares ++ Price ++ Total. Running Total*
18 Oct . 94,482 -26.46p £25,250 $32,572
21 Oct . 29,000 -27.91p .£8,174 $43,199
22 Oct. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $75,771
23 Oct. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $108,283
24 Oct. 88,192 -28.35p £25,252 $‭140,859
25 Oct. --------- --------- £--------- $140,859
28 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $173,178
29 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $205,750 10% completed
30 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $‭238,322
31 Oct. 87,719 -28.50p £25,250 $270,895
01 Nov. 88,967 -28.10p £25,250 $303,467
04 Nov. 89,285 -28.00p £25,250 $336,040
05 Nov. 92,165 -27.125p £25,250 $368,612
06 Nov. 92,592 -27.00p £25,250 $401,184 20% Completed
07 Nov. 90,909 -27.50p £25,250 $433,504
08. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $‭465,824
11. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $‭498,144 25% Completed
12. Nov. 91,274 -27.39p £25,250 $530,464
13. Nov. 91,575, -27.30p £25,250 $‭562,784
14. Nov. 93,283 -26.30p £25,250 $595,104 30% completed
15. Nov. 92,250 -27.10p £25,250 $627,677
18. Nov. 94,339 -26.50p £25,250 $660,502 1/3rd completed
19. Nov. 95,419 -26.20p £25,250 $693,074
20. Nov. 97,656 -25.60p £25,250 $725,646
21. Nov. 97,276 -25.70p £25,250 $758,215
22. Nov. 98,039 -25.50p £25,250 $790,535
25. Nov. 96,153 -26.00p £25,250 $823,107 approx 41% completed
26. Nov. 95,419 -26.20p £25,250 $855,680
27. Nov. 97,513 -25.64p £25,250 $888,252
28. Nov. 97,656 @25.60 £25,250 $920,826

Total number of Ordinary Shares in issue with voting rights now 453,006,689

*Approx Running total in US Dollars inc. 1% stamp duty Fx rate taken from US close and rounded to the nearest cent.


#51

you’re one strange and prickly chap, Eadwig. sure the buyback is small but we’ll get a divi announcement before Xmas. of themselves not too exciting but makes a statement of confidence by the management, ignored by our very narrow market right now as we seem to have a seller. am i bovvered? not really, as i’ve tried to explain i am much more interested in the value proposition, which i have set out on these boards clearly enough over time. and always happy to debate the premises on which i have based my thinking but strangely no-one ever seems to come back on these? btw. the ACOES is the key to unlocking that value.

so now to your emotional allegations against me: i am a reasonably significant shareholder in San Leon, i am not an insider nor am i employed by the company in any capacity. as to the ‘our’ you get so excited about, a quick lesson in company law for you. a company is owned by its members, who are the shareholders. so in a very small way i identify with the company as an owner. i bought in and support ‘my’ company by association with it, so ‘we’ and ‘our’. that’s all: no need for all the fuss really.

but you also bought in, Eadwig and a couple of times more towards the end of october or so you tell us. and then you dis the company, its share buyback, its management and the new export facility. as i say, you’re one strange guy. why did you buy for chrissake? if i thought like you i simply wouldn’t have bought or if i had i would have then sold.


#52

“we’ll get a divi announcement before Christmas…” !! Fact or fiction? Or just plain wishful thinking??
TP


#53

Yes, please do tell us @Alaric if you have some inside information, because all we know is there will be an announcement ‘in due course’.

I for one would be delighted if there was a dividend announcement while the buyback is still on-going. I currently estimate it will end w/e Jan 17th, but that could change if GBP moves out of the tight range its been stuck in for the whole period of the buyback to date.

You have explained it and we understand it, but the only truth is the tape at the end of the day and it has not reflected your valuation. Ever. Not even close.

Also, seeing as you’re back again, your previous post was valuing the company including the monies that are due to be paid out via the overdue dividend.

What’s your answer to the question, “Why wont the market then value the company by $30m less (or however much is eventually paid out) once that cash been paid out?”

I have 3 tranches currently at an average of @30.055p for the record (although the buys are posted live elsewhere anyway, although I discovered on another board just two days ago I had accidentally said my average was @30.55p and I may have repeated that error here).

The difference between you and me is I will criticize a company if I think its being run badly and I don’t think I need to continually talk it up, falsely, because I’m invested. It wont make any difference anyway. I don’t in anyway personalise or get attached to my investments, and if you bothered to read any book on investment strategy you’ll see that it is a basic lesson for new investors to learn. Don’t take my word for it, I suggest you read one. Better late than never.

I haven’t ‘dissed’ the new export facility, as you put it, but I have warned against placing too much faith in it because there are many sorts of crime that lead to oil loss in Nigeria, including from offshore storage exactly like this. In fact, if SLE get unlucky, they could just be setting themselves up to lose even more or cost themselves more for no improvement. Again, don’t take my word for it, there are plenty of official reports from respected organisations like the EIA and IEA with examples specific to the Niger Delta.

However, if you bothered to read my previous post, and one of your problems is apparently your attention span with long posts, is that I clearly said it will depend on how much over-sight and control the storage facility gives SLE … and I’ll add - if they can actually do anything about losses even if they do discover them in unexpected places.

They’re giving themselves every chance and look like they’ve finally woken up to what I was warning about in 2016, but they may well have to accept some loss (and additional costs) as simply the price of doing business in Nigeria.

Nothing different to what I said years ago and you said I was talking rubbish. Now pipeline losses and monitoring other types of loss is the main focus of the company’s strategy going forward and front and centre of its plans in virtually ever new RNS. You don’t acknowledge I was right though because, well, you know better than I … it appears you are too personally ‘in love’ with your investment.

Lastly, I loved your biased characterisation of the

As I used to build these things I know just how far from ‘creaky’ they are. Good to see that, however you put it, you’ve finally accepted my warnings about losses, whether or not you want to acknowledge I was right from the very beginning or not.


#54

omg Eadwig you are a pompous windbag. and in Oscar Wilde’s words you’re a windbag who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. you tell us you bought more tranches of stock in October despite thinking the management was crxp (you can’t ever have met or spoken with Joel Price) and that the ACOES will fail. as I have explained the ACOES is the key to value release : without its successful delivery the proposition becomes flawed. so the options would appear to be: you are feeble minded, you’re a phoney/troll or you’re lying - you tell me.

as for the divi, personally i would have preferred if they had waited until we have demonstrable field revenues next year. (criticism? yes but i kind of get why they did it for a number of reasons, some of which are beyond your limited imagination ie not covered in investment manuals, so i won’t go there) i believe it will be announced before Xmas, without guarantee, but why not grow a pair and do your own research.


#55

No answers to genuine questions then, not to mentioning misrepresenting what I actually said.

So why would anyone listen to your rubbish explanations about ‘value release’? You sound like you’ve been swallowing some management consultant’s sales pitch. Just because you pronounce doesn’t make it so. THAT is pomposity.

I’ve done my research, I didn’t need to ‘grow a pair’. The official word is ‘in due course’. The unofficial word? I’ve seen no hint of anything. If you have, why not share it?

I don’t believe you have, because you’re not exactly shy to pronounce other successes before they actually happen. So just more of @Alaric toting the jam tomorrow company line.

Now that is real feeble-minded, phoneyness.


#56

So, possibly before Christmas, but more likely next year! (Even more likely sometime or in due course :joy::joy::rofl::rofl:)
TP


#57

It puts you in mind of ‘the war will be over by Christmas’ doesn’t it? And the retort, yes, but which one?


#58

so why do you own san leon? sure i believe this is a massively undervalued play. and i’ve given my reasons for that and i hold my position. you don’t agree and i have absolutely no problem with that, (other than you don’t really ever give any reasons. sorry but past history per se doesn’t do it for me). but you’re still here and by your own account adding to your holding. how so? (you have to admit Eadwig, it’s a pretty simple question).


#59

In fact I did give my reasons for each buy. It is hardly my fault that you haven’t read them or forgotten.

I bought the first tranche on 9th July in the hope that the next buyback announcement was due and that it would be another version of the tendered buyback like the first. Obviously I was disappointed.

The second and third tranches were after the announcement of this actual buyback and are two of the last three posts on this thread Buy-back

Basically, my thesis was that as the price was down to about @25p at that point that there would be very few sellers prepared to realise a loss and simple supply and demand should raise the price, perhaps to mid @30s, plus the chance of the official dividend announcement coming along and also boosting the price. I had/have a target to make 15%+, without waiting for the actual divi payout.
(After the 3rd buy I did incorrectly give my holding average @30.55p when it is @30.055p by the way. Not a big error, but best to be right if you’re going to post these things at all.)

Clearly, so far anyway, it looks like I badly misjudged that situation. I’m still surprised and perplexed that someone is selling at this low level the price is currently at. Why would someone sell who must surely be underwater when a dividend announcement is perhaps just around the corner, and might yield as much as 20% on a price of @25p?

That’s all from memory, but check my original posts if you wish. I only scanned them for that average holding price. They’re not hard to find on ii these days, especially if you know the dates.

You say I should ‘get a pair’. Well, there you are @Alaric , my thesis and buy prices and average almost 20% underwater all posted live for you to mock and criticise and laugh at all you want.

I still do hold my original shares from years back about 97% underwater @669p but I have long since written them off to zero in my books and taken that hit. I could add them to the 3 tranches above at zero value and take my holding price down to about @29.25p. If I see 15%+ return on the transaction I will be selling the whole lot as I have capital gains offsets to make on that account this tax year. Sales of Facebook @700% profit, a position built at the same time as the original SLE position (also posted live). I wont go into the obvious ‘if onlys’ …

I can’t dodge it, I can’t pretend I haven’t done it. I can’t kid myself I’m making money when its there for all to see. Its not the worst aid to discipline in the world to stick with. Mock all you like.


#60

Forgive me for butting in but my reason for buying many moons ago was the polish potential. My reason for keeping was a probably vain hope that things would get better. Then when SLE became financiers I thought “ what could possibly go wrong?” I sold a good portion of my holding in last years offer but held on to some, just in case the likes of Alaric and LD saw something I’d missed. But here we are, getting older and poorer with SLE shares despite all the unfulfilled promises. No divi, no offer, just a miserable buyback program which appears to be going nowhere fast. Lost faith a long time ago! Just hanging on ‘in case’ sentiment changes.
Thankfully I’ve had better results elsewhere
TP