When im short, what i do is then look at it as if i want to buy. Obviously this helps me to determine the bulls.
All banter aside, I am not seeing this and there is some worrying considerations for bulls. .I’m giving this as a sample potential buyer perspective. I’m going to leave out all local sector analysis, global super sectors etc.
The most transacted price this year on hur in terms of time, is 45.34.
The recent low in July, is also the longer term average positioning 're 40.76 approx. This is why you saw the bounce there. Its technical buyers. Not fundamental.
But these tech buyers have made a grave error… .They have misinterpreted volumes badly.
All im going to say is this. Your ok if 40.76 doesn’t break. If it does, watch the speed of the exits.
40.76 is not a true support imo. There is no money source of credibility in the bounce.
So let’s ease up on the 10p Target. Il give you my next assessment price. 29.32
Now you could say… what if x or y occurs?
What im trying to say to you is, the smart money doesn’t expect x or y to occur. Dunno their reasons. Just what i see