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Q1 Trading Update

lse:pmo

#1

Very solid update, FCF looks like it’ll be at the very top end of guidance given Q1 numbers (oil price dependant). Which also blows away the theory that premier couldn’t generate FCF without selling the ‘family silver’ as one incorrect poster commented.

A year end covenant leverage ratio of 2.3x would be absolutely incredible when considering where we’ve come from.

Question is, when will the market start to price in the improved fundamentals?


#2

Very solid results Beatley, can’t see PMO staying independent for too much longer, given their asset base. Maybe I’m blind, but surely a rerate can’t be too far down the track. No surprises & if oil trends north I’ll be holding till valuations catch up with reality. ATB


#3

I agree. A good solid Q1 which is really encouraging. Although of course it is heavily caveated with lots comments about the oil price staying at current levels. But if price does stay above 70p this year, I cannot believe we will not rise strongly from here. 130p would be my minimum year end target but could easily overshoot that.

I certainly won’t be selling any at current prices, apart from my trading purchases of course.

The one dark cloud of course is Trump. What will he do next with China? That could be bad for POO, but even more worryingly, what will he do in Iran? That tinderbox could easily explode in the next 12 months…

DB


#4

Trading update seems reasonably positive, mostly putting forward better numbers for FY than last update which is always good IMHO.

Seems the short sellers picked Monday to increase their shorts by another 0.13%, perfect timing it now seems ! AHL have added 0.2% short this month to reach a total of just over 1.5%. Happily, soon after and the technical’s have turned from bearish to bullish in the last days which is good news.

All in all hopefully this starts to turn the corner (along with current decent oil price) and gets the SP back into triple figures sooner than later.


#5

The acquisition question is an interesting one. Probably more one for the accountants, but with $4bln of tax losses, surely making a bid for Premier for a $1bln makes sense?! Swallow up the debt, utilise the buyers current production and Premiers existing production to eat through the tax losses. Sell off the bits you don’t want and you get Zama as a bonus.

Probably far too simplistic, but makes sense on paper?