Yes, deathly quiet…and with another 1% short interest being declared this week (~8.3m shares) given average daily volume is ~10m shares that’s potentially ~20% of the volume being short sales. Definitely a healthy short interest being built up now standing at 5.42% with all 4 known participants adding.
So not surprising the share price is falling to new lows this year with this backdrop even if oil hasn’t.
However, some Bloomberg Research to share from the other day.
(Bloomberg Intelligence) –
THESIS: Premier Oil is delivering operational performance and deleveraging ahead of expectations, and we see rising organic free cash flow – backstopped by Catcher, its flagship U.K. North Sea project – to extend through 2H. Catcher has achieved plateau volume above vessel-nameplate capacity, and is exhibiting exceptional production efficiency of 99%. We look for year-end net debt of about $2 billion, achieving 2x annual Ebitda, representing a significant milestone for the company. Approval in 2020 for Premier’s next-growth stage, Zama, suggests first oil in 2022-23, with capacity of more than 150 kboepd (38 kboepd net). (08/14/19)
• 1H Production Averaged 84.1 Kboepd, Above High-End of 2019 Average-Production Guidance of 75-80 Kboepd
• BI Scenario Sees 2019 Ebitda at $1.06 Billion, Compares With Consensus of $1.05 Billion
• Sharply Improving Balance Sheet With 1H Net Debt at $2.33 Billion; Deleveraging to Continue to $2 Billion by Year-End
• 2019 Capex of $340 Million Unchanged
Premier’s pre-reported 1H average production of 84,100 boepd places the company well on track to meet or exceed the top end of its full-year guidance of 75,000-80,000 boepd, in our view. It also suggests potential for a guidance upgrade at 1H results. Performance continues to be led by Catcher (50% interest) in the U.K. North Sea, which is exhibiting unparalleled operating efficiency at 99% and reservoir performance in excess of vessel-design capacity, which has also facilitated lower operating-cost guidance of $12/boe (from $13). With free-cash flow extending through 2H, net-debt reduction is also on pace to meet or exceed guidance this year, and could be at-or-below the $2 billion milestone by year-end, equating to an impressive leverage ratio of about 2x Ebitda. (08/14/19)