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Share Price first oil

lse:hur

#1

Does the market know something we don’t here .I was expecting us to at least hold mid 50 s on the way to first oil .


Rotterdam (Scheveningen!) to FOIL
#2

I think that the share price is simply following the price of oil.


#3

Hi Dyncaled,

Brent currently up just under 1%. HUR down nearly 3%. Part of the answer but not all, imo.

[(http://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B580MF54/)

All the best.

HTL


#4

HTL

Many thanks for the link. Must confess that it did not mean much to me other than there are a lot of players taking a bet on Hurricane SP falling. Let us hope that the decline in the price of oil is halted in the wake of the American Iran sanctions.

Regards


#5

Hello H t l,

It’s disappointing to see the share price continually falling as we get nearer and nearer to first oil from Lancaster. I thought we would have seen a gradual increase until the momentous day when the black gold starts to flow aboard the Aoka Mizu… it looks as if the spivs in the City are trying to drive the share price down as they short Hurricane shares. Let’s hope they get more than their sticky little fingers badly burnt!

This fall in the share price has made me wonder if a predator company is quietly accumulating some cheap shares in anticipation of making a hostile bid for Hurricane. There are lots of ways of keeping a substantial holding less than the declaration threshold of 3%. I only wish I had sufficient shares in Hurricane at a declarable amount!

Best wishes to you and your family and I hope all is going well with your treatment.

Carliol


#6

Hi carliol,

Yes, this is becoming a bit of a habit with this share. We never seem to get ahead for any length of time before we get dragged back down again. Roll on an exit from the AIM into something with a bit more regulation.

I must admit, it has crossed my mind on a number of occasions that this has now been held down for some time. Let us hope that it is just shorters and traders responsible and not some piratical predator
looking to rip us off.

Have not had any treatment yet, although all tests have been done. Due to see the cancer specialist next Monday to discuss possible treatment. Currently feeling a bit rough and have virtually lost my voice,(at least Mrs HTL is happy, lol). Only kidding. My birthday today. Without doubt the worst one of my life.

Anyway, enough of my problems. Let’s hope that this turns soon, before I have a heart attack as well, lol.

All the best.

HTL


#7

It doesn’t seem right to say Happy Birthday but Happy Birthday anyway!


#8

Happy Birthday, HTL! Yes, it must be hard to feel any sense of birthday jubilation today, given your ordeal. I’m sorry you’re feeling rough, I hope help is forthcoming for you regarding ongoing symptoms, and huge good luck for Monday. I hope you hear something that will be encouraging.
As regards the shareprice, I must say I feel like having a good rant about it at the moment! I would never have imagined a drop of this scale a few weeks ago, oil price demise or not.
But, as you are experiencing at the moment, sometimes bigger things come along in life that change our perspective somewhat.
Chin up, HTL.
aquarian


#9

Hi aquarian,

A big thank you for your heartening message, much appreciated. Very good to hear from you, particularly with what you are going through yourself at the moment.

Yes, very annoying to say the least, regarding the sp. Still, the cream always floats to the top, so just a case of waiting.

Take care.

All the best.

HTL


#10

@HTL/Aquarian
Greetings & continuing Best Wishes (and moral support) to you two and your connections. Hang in there and deal with whatever comes, on that side, with pragmatism and tranquillity.

On the question of the HUR share price, you may remember that I wondered aloud and expressed my disquiet with that sale by CA, of 20 million Units. I could not then - and still cannot now - see a rationale for the sale. And it has been downhill ever since for the SP. Getting perilously close to the point where we may be able to average downward - although now would be loathe to do so.

Something esoteric may well be going on, but I hope not to our intermediate/LT disadvantage, so I am still keeping the Faith for an eventual satisfying Pay Day. - Kind regards, All. - LLV


#11

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/aim-hur/hurricane-energy-shares/news/who-really-owns-hurricane-energy-plc-lonhur/

Hopefully this link works, found this bit particularly noteworthy:

“Institutions account for 55.03% of HUR’s outstanding shares, a significant enough holding to move stock prices if they start buying and selling in large quantities, especially when there are relatively small amounts of shares available on the market to trade. However, as not all institutions are alike, such high volatility events, especially in the short-term, have been more frequently linked to active market participants like hedge funds. Considering hedge funds hold a stake of 14.08% in the company, HUR shares may experience high short-term volatility as this class of institutions are frequently found to sell significantly during market-wide shocks. We should dig deeper into the company’s ownership structure to find how the rest of its ownership structure can impact its investment case.”

It may be given the recent bumps in the market that we are in for a temporary ride downwards. My personal view is the fundamentals remain unchanged and for this reason I’m going to tune out the ‘market noise’ and hold, my personal feeling is volatility will stabilize once production is proven over a certain time period and only then are we going to see the SP reflect the true value.

From the same website - if the link works - scroll down to ‘analyst’s expectations’ - this gives an indication of revenue growth expected by 2021.

As ever - dyor.


#12

Hi Lawven2.
Yes I was also surprised at CA s disposal ,which I must admit concerns me .I bought in to HUR as probably most of us did taking a long term view mine being 3 to 5 years . I m awful at trying to trade in and out of shares .But now looking at the tea leaves also known as the graph I think if 43p is broken next stop is 37.5 and after that around 30p unless some chartists see it differently .As the only good news I can see coming from the company to lift the share price and stop the fall is first oil or may be the hook up.


#13

Happy belated Birthday HTL, very sorry to hear about your voice, but at least we have the benefit of reading your views. All the very best for your Monday appointment, hope you can get treatment started very soon.

Fingers crossed the sp rises soon to give us all a boost !

Thinking of you and your family,

MIllais


#14

I think the LSE site’s got the right idea with the option to ‘recommend’ post and give a thumbs up. I don’t quite want to ‘heart’ the share price dropping - but have to say it does look, albeit I have no doubt, temporarily that way inclined … for LTH not the time to sell, and don’t advise trading in and out unless you’re a stocks genius - this too shall pass.

HTL - thinking of you today and sending good wishes your way for Monday.


#15

Another interesting article - this one focuses on current oil prices and the consequences for global economies as they rise or fall. Obviously this is another of many other potential factors contributing to the current fall in SP.


#16

I thought this was interesting on how the Pricing currently works for north sea valuations or not .Don’t know if anyone as already posted this from Faroe s website on their view of the current takeover bid.
RNS Number : 5348I Faroe Petroleum PLC 26 November 2018

NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN WHOLE OR IN PART, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN INTO OR FROM ANY JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OR REGULATIONS OF THAT JURISDICTION

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

26 November 2018

Faroe Petroleum plc (the “Company” or “Faroe”)

Response to Unsolicited Offer by DNO ASA (“DNO”)

Further to its earlier announcement, the Board of Faroe (the “Board”, “we”) have now met together with its advisers and considered the announcement released earlier today by DNO of an unsolicited offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Faroe not already owned by DNO at 152p per share (the “Offer”).

The Board strongly believes that the Offer is opportunistic and substantially undervalues Faroe and encourages all shareholders to take no action.

DNO’s opportunistic Offer substantially undervalues your Company

The Offer price of 152p per share represents a premium of just 1% to Faroe’s 3‐month VWAP and only 21% to Faroe’s closing share price on 23 November 2018. This is:

● substantially below the average premium on all UK takeovers over the last 10 years of 43%¹; ● substantially below the average premium on all UK takeovers in the E&P space over the last 10 years of 40%²; and ● equivalent to US$6.8³ per barrel of 2P reserves and US$3.2³ per barrel of 2P reserves + 2C resources, which is substantially below the average price paid recently for comparable North Sea (in particular, Norwegian Continental Shelf) portfolios of US$12.1⁴ per barrel of 2P reserves and US$9.5⁴ per barrel of Total Resources respectively.

DNO’s Offer does not value Faroe’s exciting prospects as an independent business


#17

@adrian2
Thanks, Adrian. The machinations are what Floss of this BB would probably describe as ‘most mysterious’! (Audrey Hepburn in Roman Holiday, described it as ‘MOST unusual’).

To change the subject, but not the object, we read in a Broker’s assessment somewhere that Total Resources were priced at circa USD 5/barrel. Faroe now suggests USD 12.1@2P and USD 9.5@TR.

Because of the recent reduction (it’s going back up on inventory shortage fears!) in the PoO, let us take USD 5@TR as being conservative but acceptable. HUR is a potential 2.6 billion barrel-er (some of it waiting to be proven/confirmed). With a capitalisation of 1,960 million shares, that gives a calculated Share Price of circa £5. Which can be discounted to the recent Bull Market valuation of circa £3.70 recently given by an Investment Bank. Of course, they also gave a Bear Market valuation of 20p. So, maybe, therein lies the rub. Speculation, yes; but where else am I going wrong?
Kind regards, All. - LLV


#18

Holy cow @lawven2!
Is that a kind of answer to a question I posted some time ago…?
I’d almost given up…
Nice to see someone putting some meaningful figures up.
Well done sir!


#19

@mallie99
Mallie, humble thanks for your good wishes on an exercise - which though speculative - is not entirely without merit.

I have posted the same scenario - but couched slightly differently - on HUR’s 'Rotterdam … to FOIL’. Again, the answer is your “Holy cow”. Now you can see why some of us LTH are ‘terrified’ that an opportunist predator may come up and snatch it from under our noses, for little more than chicken-feed compared to its realistic/fair value.
Kind regards, All. - LLV


#20

Share Price First Oil thread. President Trump has played another blinder, he does not like (along with most consumers) expensive oil and therefore fuel. So he gives long notice date to start sanctions on Iran, oil price moves up to nearly $80 pb, he then berates OPEC especially KSA (over whom he has leverage over their barbaric act) into producing more oil. A few weeks later comes the clever bit, he puts sanctions on Iranian oil but allows them to keep selling it! The market then wakes up! Yes you can beat the market sometimes. Reality, we suddenly have higher ROPEC and US production with no loss of production from Iran. Oversupply, growing stockpiles, fears of economic slowdown after sanctions, lead to oil price falling 25% in a few weeks. ROPEC now scrambling to agree to cut supply to stop the glut and further oil price falls.
HUR share price first oil, first oil for me January 2019, ROPEC will cut production, POO at FOIL $70 pb HUR sp to rise 5p on the day to around 55p at end of first day.
IMHO