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Share Price first oil

lse:hur

#242

Bobsson

I think many share your pain with the country’s current position. It has not been pleasant watching the events of the last two years unfold. I won’t mention the unmentionable as fraught enough and frankly I feel we’ve all had enough whichever way we voted. I am hopeful that early September, October will start to look very good indeed for Hurricane. So perhaps with everything lined up and ready to take off we don’t have the luxury of “sell in May”, but nevertheless may we enjoy our summer months knowing ‘Winter is coming’ but for us, hopefully, with good news!:}


#243

Are these two statements really

Flompatible


#244

Yes they are compatible, No downside, and Independence Day should have been March 29th. Hurricane Energy becomes a shining light when GWA is shown to be a Supergiant field and Lancaster wells and reservoirs perform as expected. The penny should start to drop by the end of this year.
NAI


#245

I think you meant `Brexit has little or no negative impact on the company’ rather than Brexit having no effect at all.

Setting aside the GWA effect, I would have thought that because oil (and hence HUR assets) are valued in dollars but our shares are denominated in pence, if the pound falls on Brexit, then our SP in pence should rise proportionately and vice versa.

Which means that unless Brexit has no effect on the pound/dollar exchange rate, Brexit will indeed have an impact on the

Flompany


#246

In as much as the share price is affected by the dollar/pound exchange rate then Brexit is just one of the many factors that will/may affect it, in other words just as it always has been and just as it always will be.

I would be grateful Floss if you would point me the link to the conference, or give me the name of that climate change scientist whose presentation was on one of these threads somewhere.
Thanks


#247

@Flossoffa
Agreed, Floss. “Nice” (in the sense of ‘subtle’) difference, but insightful observation! not negative.
I remember the extract, because I commented on how well HUR appeared to be prepared for Brexit - stocking long-delivery sensitive parts, etc… To Brexit or not to Brexit? That’s (still) the conundrum!
Kr,A. - LLV


#248

Found it! This is the one, Steve Goreham, very entertaining, part of the conviction and punishment (if there is any) process for the green protesters should be to watch this and learn from it.


#249

Share price on the up, now + 5%. Price of oil around $74.50 per barrel. President Trump has tightened Iran oil sanction exemptions, so this would be a good environment for HUR to produce first oil. If everything comes good for HUR in 2019, we should see a good end of year share price. My take is that if HUR share price reaches £1 (the WOS basement model works as expected) it could easily reach £2, £3, or more, we just need two determined bidders.
IMHO


#250

Sorry bobsson but I am dubious about these sort of price predictions. I just cannot imagine IIs waking up when the RNS of first oil appears and only then diving into the company. I really do believe the old saying that the stock market is a barometer and not a thermometer.

The market knows first oil will be produced, period, so I think that is pretty much in the price - and there is a downside risk, if we go beyond end-June for first production. The unknown that could move the sp is the current drilling programme on GWA.

My thoughts anyway but i would not sniff at £3 if that amount was put on the table!


#251

Hi Ecologist, I am not expecting IIs to dive in when first oil appears. They come on board gradually during the course of 2019 as it becomes clear the model is working and further recoverable reserves are being found. I think there is a good chance of the share price being up around £1 by the end of 2019, but of course £1 will be a barrier, but once through it the share price may accelerate. I am expecting to have to wait until 2020 for a takeover.
IMHO DYOR NAI


#252

SP well up today, more than oil price.
I wonder if commissioning/FOIL news is coming through?


#253

@bobsson
"…My take is that if HUR share price reaches £1 (the WOS basement model works as expected) it could easily reach £2, £3, or more, we just need two determined bidders."
This is my convinced view too, Bobsson. And I have been consistent in saying this, even at some measurable scepticism on this BB; even though I am now in Albi1’s (?) court that we may have to wait a little longer than at first envisaged. But do make some profits on the way there, if you can. Watch what the MMs are saying.

But I have no problem whatsoever with the ‘dubious ones’. “…Sorry bobsson but I am dubious about these sort of price predictions.” (Great respect due on the Market as a thermometer, Ecologist! - And I would not ‘sniff’ at £3 either, if that were on the table!!). The fact of the matter is that it is all our best guess, anyway. PDYOR, as usual.

I take what I like to think is a more pragmatic (and patient?) view than some. All of Mother Nature’s useful resources are in limited and reasonably determinate supply; and any cost input to extend that supply results in value added to that utility on which the cost is expended, although not necessarily like for like or £ for £. That’s an acceptable risk. CPR’s of increased asset resources and accruals from improved Cash Flows are going nowhere except in the Bank, unless squandered by an incompetent BoD. In which case, we should hold them to account. Reasonable risk for me.

I refused to bet on ‘almost racing certainty’ - no such thing! - Tiger Roll, because my risk appetite did did not see that a >5/1 was good value for the uncertainties inherent in 40 runners’ over 30 intimidating fences for over 4 miles. So I missed out there. Hoping to make amends many times over on HUR. Good luck to all holders. My view.
Kind regards, All. HTL, Albi1, Ash, Floss, et al. - LLV


#254

From chuteso1 on ADVFN:

“First oil will be announced imminently together with huge new oil find in area I hear.”

“First oil is imminent”

I can’t see any way a huge new oil find is anything to do with HUR, it’s only been a few days drilling.


#255

Share price just over 46p. It has been rising and falling in line with the oil price and HUR is not even a producer yet! Just goes to show that Lancaster field needs to gradually ramp up production as anticipated for a positive share price reaction. There is a lot of support activity around the AM with constant re-supply ships and helicopter flights , makes me think that flaring could be as soon as this week. If we do get the flaring RNS, I hope we have a Warwick drilling update as we are three weeks into the drill this week. I am still hoping for first oil this month which should make for a very upbeat AGM on 5th June. The US think Iran may be about to kick off and are sending a carrier battle fleet to the Gulf. It would be good to have HUR specific news to give the share price a boost into the 50s , drilling success and on target oil production increases should move the share price through the 60s quite quickly. I will take a punt at the sp being in the 90s at the end of 2019, getting through the £1 barrier is likely to be difficult this year.


#256

There appears to be a Stifel research note out today giving share price target of 130p per share and potential unrisked NAV of 600p per share. I have no access to it but the 600p potential is what us LTHs have projected.
Perhaps the AGM will give clarity as to whether HURs corporate and investor plan has changed. Is HUR still looking to monetise its assets by way of a sale of the company, or does the company look to subsist with lucrative non operated stakes in its current West of Shetland blocks leaving the company free to continue frontier exploration drilling? If its the latter, then I can see HUR farming out at least 50% of Greater Lancaster field this year. If a GLA farmout is not to BP, then would BP hang around whilst HUR starts farming out even more of its WOS assets, or strike to take over the rest of HUR?
If some of the above occurs we could see share price spikes later this year.
IMHO


#257

Unconfirmed report on other bb that final checks and preparations are underway for first (test?) oil to be pumped onto the AM. So perhaps we will see flaring over the weekend and an RNS to confirm early next week. Hope HUR give an indication as to when first commercial oil will be pumped.


#258

@bobsson
…There appears to be a Stifel research note out today giving share price target of 130p per share and potential unrisked NAV of 600p per share. I have no access to it but the 600p potential is what us LTHs have projected.

Anything further in tracking down that alleged Stifel Research Note, Bobsson? I have been trying to find it without success, so far; but I’m firmly in the camp of the over £5s’ LTHs for what that opinion is worth.

I thought today’s trading at over 47p was indicative of an imminent FOIL. The SP movement would be a good indicator of progress or not, since these ‘big boys’ know exactly what is going on long before we lesser mortals do. However, HUR has run back below the 47p at latest trading. So we watch and wait!! Thanks for your posts.
Kind regards, All. - LLV


#259

Hi lawven, I think Stifel are HURs broker and NOMAD, likely such reports will cost hundreds of pounds or more to access. Likely that institutional investors and private equity will be the ones to buy it. We already know we are on to a good thing just have to wait patiently. I am expecting first commercial oil this month (May) and the result of the Warwick Deep well end of June beginning of July. Share price now around 47p I expect 50p + next week.
Good luck to all LTHs


#260

@Bobsson - can you explain your anticipated dates please? I have noted that Dr Trice has always insisted FOIL in the first half so at most 6 weeks to wait. But why late June / early July for drill results. The earlier Lincoln drill only took 40 days from spudding to RNS. Do you believe this well will take 30-40 days longer i.e. almost double the drill time?

I do not doubt you will be correct but would like to understand your logic more clearly.

Eco


#261

@bobsson
"…Likely that institutional investors and private equity will be the ones to buy it. We already know we are on to a good thing just have to wait patiently.

Thanks, Bobsson. I agree that '… we are on to a good thing in HUR. Let’s hope so, anyway!!. But I am respectfully of a different view from yours in the sentence of your comment (my emboldenment.) Whether the Stifel’s research note will cost hundreds of pounds or not, it is my view that HUR holders should be made aware of it and its cost so as to ensure equity and equal treatment amongst HUR shareholders. (At the stakes involved, I’ll gladly pay for a copy and make it available. Better still; maybe we can ‘partner’ and buy our own copy? Just so that we know!)

It is even more important to have it out there to all, because as you say, Stifel are HUR’s broker and NOMAD, and thus our money is paying their Fees for the Report, although it is HUR’s property… A legalistic interpretation may be that in NOT making its availability known to ALL; it is “…Likely that institutional investors and private equity will be the ones to buy it…” and thus giving them an unfair advantage and insights which were not made available to the small and/or private investor. In a litigious society, this may even lead to a charge of ‘insider trading’ or discriminatory conduct and damaging/inimical to the interests of certain members/shareholders of HUR. I am not saying it is. I am saying that if the circumstances are as given above, then a case can be (should be?) prosecuted for it. Notwithstanding, we still love HUR and Dr Trice. My opinion. PDYOR. Kind regards, ALL. - LLV