Share Price first oil



@Albi1 et al
Sorry, read “delicacy” for ‘delicately’. Knotted up my parts-of-speech, there! Errant fingers. - Kr, A. LLV


I am currently trying to set things up so it will be easy for my husband to understand what on earth I’m up to investment wise. I’m in good health now but things change and it would definitely give me peace of mind to know he’s OK.


I am currently trying to set things up so it will be easy for my husband to understand what on earth I’m up to investment wise. I’m in good health now but things change and it would definitely give me peace of mind to know he’s OK.

Very well said, Albi. It is also important that he reciprocates, not only for his peace of mind (as is yours in his case) but also that he should make it as easy on you and his/yours as is possible so to do. These are always trying times. One does not want to add the potential ‘mess’ of intestacy. - Kr,A. - LLV


Hi there. First post here, but from a long term investor in HUR. I’m sitting on an average buy of about 38p for a number of shares. I read these boards with interest, amongst others, but what I can’t work out, is what is everyone’s thought on the resultant share price at first oil or potential buy out. I’ve read in the past £5 / £10 / £2 - now some of those would make me happier than the others, but quite frankly at the right time I will be happy regardless.

Does everyone have a thought on this, just trying to work out my retirement at 45 or 65 (I wish, i am not in that far!)



Have a read through this thread - you’ll find a few conservative lowball estimates of what we may be worth if a takeover were to happen - circa £2/£2.50.

My personal view is if we hold out to achieve value, then around £2 by the end of this year, rising eventually to at least £3.80/£4 - max £5 if we’re lucky. I think £10 is wishful thinking - but hey, if the PoO decides to hit $100 per barrel for the next 5 years - maybe not.

Correction Sorry Joak99, I posted the wrong link - there are two ‘Are we there yet’ threads on this Board - thanks to HtL for picking that up:}

Here’s the right one - scroll down and you’ll find some interesting posts from Ricfle and Lawven2 and others on the subject - you can play with the price of PoO to rework their estimates if it helps.


Hi Albi1,

I think you might have hit the wrong button with that link, lol.

All the best.



Hi again

You might want to re-read my last post, I had to correct it as put the wrong link in there!


Hello H t L,

It’s a while since I made a post so I thought I might put forward my thoughts on where the share price is heading once first oil is being produced from Lancaster.

In a note issued in Sept 2018 from Morgan Stanley, they had a bull price of 381p. See the following link:-

A lot depends on how the Early Production System performs on the two Lancaster wells. The real test will be in a few months following first oil. If the EPS comes up to and exceeds expectations we could see the share price rocket. No doubt several major and mid cap oil companies will be watching the EPS very closely with a view to making a bid. However, a cheeky bid could come in at any time and I’m sure Dr Trice has contingency plans to turn down such a bid.

If the EPS is successful, Dr Trice could be tempted to drill one or even two further production wells on Lancaster

A note from Edison issued in June 2018 gave the EPS a 100% chance of success. This note provides a wide ranging analysis of Hurricane’s prospects See link below.

Also, don’t forget, there is the three well campaign on the Greater Warwick Area. If this campaign is successful it could have s serious positive effect on the share price.

There have been many wild guesses and serious calculations on where the share price is heading. As I’ve said many times before, the acid test is how well the EPS performs. If the EPS perform well and I think it will, Hurricane will be taken over before the end of this year. BP remains my favourite because of it’s long term association with Hurricane and also that Dr David Jenkins, Senior Independent non Exec Director of Hur is a former Chief Geologist and former Chief Executive for Technology with BP.

We’ve had lots of reports on the amount of oil in the naturally fractured basement reservoirs West of Shetland and I firmly believe no one accurately knows simply how much oil is down there. All I know is that there is a colossal amount of oil in Hurricane’s assets. It’s often said that large oil fields just keep getting bigger and bigger. Let’s hope that this saying comes true!

What the take over price will be is any one’s guess but I’m sure it will be several multiples of today’s price.



Hi carliol,

I hope you are well and all is good.

Yes, this has been a long haul for you and I, and many other long-termers. If I am honest, to date I don’t believe that this share has performed anywhere near to where it should be. Hopefully we are now approaching the rewards that we all have hoped for. As you say, providing the EPS behaves as Dr Trice expects, and Lancaster/Halifax, Warwick/Lincoln are proven to contain at least as much oil as projected to date, then we should indeed see a sp of many multiples of todays value.

My main fear is if this continues to be traded the way it has for some considerable time, we may never see true value. However, I am hoping that we are taken asap out of the AIM and into the main FTSE market. That will give me a lot more confidence as to the final outcome. It should encourage a lot more IIs and take a big chunk of the free-float off the market.

Logically, providing this does all it says on the tin, then we should be well rewarded for our patience, belief and loyalty. Let’s hope that logic is still part of our Universe, lol.

All the best.



Hi H t L,

I hope you are feeling better and starting to feel some benefit from the treatment you have been having.

it’s been a long slog on the AIM market for several years for us long term holders.

However, it looks as if there’s starting to be some light at the end of the tunnel for us. A move onto the main market would give the share price a shot in the arm. And an even better than expected EPS could announce a re-rating and then " light the blue touch paper and stand back!"

Best wishes to you and your family,



Hi carliol,

I saw the consultant today. Having managed to regain a fair proportion of the weight loss, which caused a suspension of treatment since the beginning of the year, she has given me the all clear to resume this Friday.

I am just keeping my fingers crossed that I don’t repeat the horrors of the previous reactions.

All the best.



There have been many wild guesses and serious calculations on where the share price is heading.

Thanks for your thoughts there, Carliol. I agree almost entirely with you, except on the detail of ‘…wild guesses’. (That’s the exception that proves I agree with you!). "Guesses’ ALL they are - even the ‘serious calculations’. The uncertainties and complexities of the Project make forecasting a share price a very inexact science - no matter how scientific (more likely pseudo-scientific!) it is otherwise held out to be. As I said before, we are all ‘guessing’.

Our gentle disagreement - if that’s what we call it - is in the adjective ‘wild’. I don’t know whether you have seen any ‘wild guesses’ on other Blog sites - I mostly avoid them! - but I have seen no wild guesses on this one which I frequent. The estimates which I have seen of the fully unrisked (de-risked) HUR’s assets (known P2 & C2 status) range from MS’s bull (unrisked) price of 381p through circa 464p to circa 500p. I am decidedly in the circa 500p (which I had reduced a few weeks ago to circa 480p, which is borne out - at fully de-risked - even at the admittedly low price at which DNO was able to acquire Faroe. (A Blogger had estimated a present HUR (part risked) value of circa 250p. I had circa 280p, but conceded to circa 265p on a recalculation from his insight). But of such is the Buyers’ Market in which we find ourselves at the present. That too, may pass. But then that’s a ‘guess’, also.

Apart from the minutiae above, I agree entirely with your insights. - Kr,A. - LLV



Hoping that by the end of this week you’ll be feeling better for quite a few reasons:}

It sounds like they think you’re strong enough to benefit from the treatment or they wouldn’t risk it. That in itself is a quietly positive sign. Really hope the effects aren’t so awful this time but as you’ve mentioned your (frankly astoundingly) athletic background, then you’ve got a fighting spirit, medicine in itself.


Hi Albi1,

I can see where you’re coming from. It looks as if we’re singing from the same hymn sheet.

Let’s hope the Aoka Mizu’s departure for Lancaster and the hook up are successful. I can’t see the AM heading for Lancaster without the AM’s captain being confident that they will be able to take advantage of a weather window and complete the hook up.

I may be getting ahead of myself but I wonder how long it will take for first oil to flow once the hook up is complete?

Up here in Cumbria it’s freezing hard tonight with snow forecast. I don’t envy the crew of the AM on their voyage to West of Shetland and when they attempt the hook up.



Hi Albi1,

I hope you are well.

Many thanks for your supportive message. Much appreciated.

Take care.

All the best.



Thanks HtL

These days I count my blessings. I spent my childhood in and out of hospital with respiratory illnesses. Cycling, walking and swimming helped me a lot, the one thing that has continued to be a huge support is meditation.

Like you a bit fed up seeing this share traded and held back but also feel this year is about to turn everything we’ve seen so far on its head in a good way!

Other than that trying to spend more time with my family and less time at work and in general to prioritize more effectively:}

All the best


HTL - so pleased you can resume treatment and I hope that now your body has experienced the chemo hopefully it will not have such a severe reaction.

Albi1 - you have done so well in controlling what must have been difficult constraints on your health when growing up. Do hope a successful hook up to the buoy and FOIL raises the sp to a level (and beyond) where we can all take a breather and enjoy some of the fruits of our investment in Hurricane.

Lawven2 and Carliol - it is so tempting to whip out the calculator and start seeing where our investments will be, given the various sp predictions of Edison and others. My question is - assuming FOIL, no delays in derisking and further well drills going according to Dr T’s timetable, any idea on when the sp will first hit the magic £1 per share ? My brother and I are both invested and I am keen to throw a family £1 party !

All opinions gratefully received !



At the time it was just as it was, children are so resilient, when I look back I understand the perspective it gave me and am grateful for it now.
£1 - OK - 1st July - that’s hook up this weekend, 6 weeks to FOIL, a few months to prove the flow plus the GWA excitement. But then you might need to throw a £2 party shortly afterwards!


Bring it on ! :champagne::champagne::champagne:


:grinning:Hi Millais/Albi1,

The way things are going, I could just about afford £1 to throw a party, but certainly not £2, lol. :grinning:

All the best.