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lse:hur

#21

Flossoffa has actually been a long and valued member of this board and has made many informative posts.


#22

Many thanks Ash, much appreciated.

There used to be an `ignore’ button but I can’t find it now. Has it been

reFloved


#23

In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine - Benjamin Graham.
Warren Buffett learnt from this guy - and he is worth a few dollars.

Not sure why short term SP is useful…unless you are into market timing.
GLA


#24

Not sure about the button

Currently in a music bar in Bangkok at Midnight and can never find anything on a phone.


#25

`Is that a phone in your pocket or are you just glad to see me’

Overheard in a music bar in

BangFlok


#27

O dear! You are telling me he does not have to act in this manner but chose to. Very sad.


#28

Johnnygibber

I see you quote the PI’s favourite investor. He always has a saying to justify any view. Is this because he uses all possible strategies to make money? While we all like the reassurance of quoting the God like Buffett, never forget he trades shares, like the next man on potential news.

Do your really think that Buffett would ignore short term news and sit through a loss if he could flip his shares. If you read some of his resent views he complains that he cannot make the same percentage profit as he did, but contends that he could do so with with far less money. The simple reason is it is easer to flip $100k than $1bn. Are you sure everything that works for Warren, applies and works for you?


#29

Ricfle

Yep Buffett is wealthier than me, but since I’ve been invested since 'if you see sid ’ his LTH advice has worked pretty well for me, especially as I also bought a couple of his BRK.A at around the same time…and held until my platfom told me I could not hold US stocks…

But thanks for inputs.


#30

Johnnygibber

I have heard all of the “hold for ever” quotes all over AIM. XEL is a good example! Where is it now? Ask Flossoffa. Gone with all of its LTH chanting “the stock market is a tool to give to the patient”. Bull.

Personally I think Charlie Munger is a far better read, “buy quality”.

How can the average PI test quality, without the benefit of a “Benjamin Graham” education? How about using these boards to discuss the pros and cons? Or we could just turn this board into another facebook page for a few old farts, as we wait in ignorance until the share price proves us right or wrong.

Hardly managing ones investment.


#31

Folks, does anyone know how long the drill stem testing normally takes and by that I mean how long should it be before someone tells us something about this new drill???


#32

A long way back to 50p from the current 35p I think. Confidence in durability of FB in the West of Shetland in question, have HUR just got lucky with the two Lancaster wells, will production be maintained? Will the Lincoln well be as successful? Spirit management making the right noises but will Spirits owners sanction additional investment in GWA given the mediocre results and that Spirit is currently up for sale, will involvement in GWA actually be a liability and not a selling point? We have not had official confirmation that Spirit are continuing the JV. If they dropped out the sp would tank again, but in fact it would put HUR in a very good position imo, Spirit obligated in Phase 1, so HUR benefit to full extent. HUR have the rig hired, so complete LC and then tie back and produce 10000 bpd, drill another producer at Lancaster for another 10,000 bpd and then go back to Halifax for another well. Select optimum site for third well. Sustain production at 40,000 bpd and build your finances for a year or two.


#33

The SP would tank again, but would put Hurricane in a very good position!

Good god, do you read what you write?


#34

Ricfle, I do, but do you comprehend what I write? I doubt it. Then again you might, you just post to cause trouble.


#35

Bobsson you are really not that deep, get over yourself.


#36

Hello Bobsson,

It’s disappointing to see the share price fall to the extent it has over the last few days but behind every cloud there is a silver lining. We still have 100% of Lancaster with the EPS producing oil ahead of expectations and giving Hurricane a good cash flow which means that Hurricane can self finance drilling and development next year without resorting to debt and/or dilution.

Your comment about Spirit dropping out of their J V is interesting. They have a 50% interest in Warwick which is worth very little or nothing and 50% of the modest find on Lincoln. I can’t see a buyer for Spirit being in raptures about the GWA. If Spirit were to pull out of the J V and relinquish the GWA or put it up for sale, I wonder what the contract between HUR and Spirit says given such a scenario? Perhaps the devil is in the detail.

It looks to me as if Spirit have drawn the short straw in their deal with Hur.

I’ve been having a look at the following RNS re the last drill on Halifax which is still 100% Hur. ( See following RNS)

https://ir.q4europe.com/Solutions/Hurricane2018tf/3942/newsArticle.aspx?storyid=14105587

If Spirit do drop out of the J V and Hur have to go it alone. It makes sense to get the well on Lincoln up and running and connected to the Aoka Mizu. Drill a further producer on Lancaster and go back to Halifax re enter the well drilled in Q1 2017. If these three events were successful I’m sure we could see a significant recovery in the share price.

Perhaps it would be a blessing in disguise if Spirit dropped out because it would leave Hur in a position to concentrate their resources on the two jewels in Hur’s crown!

Also the three drills this year have all been funded by Spirit and cost Hur nothing.

Carliol


#37

carliol, Exactly, and not only have Spirit paid for the drilling, they are paying a lot towards Long lead items and project management time for the LC tie back, huge amounts. I think Spirit are on the hook for a lot more money even if they do drop out. I have put a few thoughts on the other thread. Including a request to review the 2018 Spirit farm out presentation , and give a thought provoking - are we really better off having had Spirit farm in rather than going it alone, both timelines are in the presentation.


#38

Hello Bobsson,

It’s always a let down when drills do not come up to expectations but I think the market has typically over re-acted to the Warwick drills. Today and yesterday there were some substantial buys going through and there was very little difference between the volume of buys and sells.

I thought that Kerogen might have sold some more of their 16% holding in Hur once the lock in period of 120 days was up, but so far so good, so they are still heavily invested in Hur.

The next news we should have are:-

Further info on the WW drills.

More info on the EPS on Lancaster.

A CPR on Lancaster which should add to the current 2P volumes. The current market cap of Hur is £691m. The following para is taken from the last CPR on Lancaster:-

““RPS Energy Limited’s CPR in May 2017 attributes 37 million barrels of 2P reserves to the Lancaster field, based on a 6-year EPS, which would increase to 62 million barrels if the EPS was extended to 10 years.””

It looks as if the market cap of Hur is based solely on the 2P EPS on Lancaster. If anyone has a back of a fag packet calculation on the market value of the oil safely tucked away in the naturally fractured basement reservoirs W o S I would appreciate the valuation.

Carliol

P S I miss the ignore facility on the old board. I wonder why?


#39

I think the 2P value will go up massively with the next CPR


#40

Why do you think there will be another CPR? Has HUR said anything?


#41

Yes and it will be next year.