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Slight surprise that no comments on price collapse here?

lse:vod

#361

Hi

Chris Beauchamp regularly gives views on companies, including some good TA work.

Just giving a view on market expectations.

Nothing unusual.

I do not always agree but he is more often right than wrong.

ATB

soi


#362

there was a full page in the Sunday Times yesterday on Vodafone. It mentions a company called Elliott. Sounded like an asset stripper. The new guy apparently is planning to take out cost to maintain profits. In my experience that is a bad sign. There is always an opportunity to improve efficiencies and takeout some cost but the only way to successfully grow profit is to grow revenue. Macquarie has a target price of 125p. Other brokers are still around the 230p. Such a difference hopefully tuesday will make Voda’s position clearer


#363

Yes I agree @soi. No problem in “Analysts” or Press giving views in the media.
However, Chris Beauchamp has provided some very specific figures and ahead of the half-year results:

  • 2% drop in revenue for the first half to €22.62 billion
  • EBITDA expected to fall by 4.6% to €7.05 billion

Now, if he is correct then he could only have got that specific information by a leak… and that is against market rules.


#364

hi @j_westlock, Analysts who specialise in covering a specific company often have their own models of that companies performance that they have produced through going over the accounts and adding in their own guesstimates as to how the company is likely to have performed. I think thats all we are looking at here, thats probably why he has predicted some very specific numbers. Lets face it they usually have specific targets for revenue and earnings to compare against the actuals.

Pref


#365

Yes well it’s that aspect I’m interested in… he shouldn’t have more info than the market, you or I and I don’t recognise those predicted figures from VOD (though will stand corrected if they are out there somewhere)… so it’s either a total guess or he’s had info.
Guess we will find out in less than 24hrs.


#366

@j_westlock,

Well if you go to the Vodafone results site here:-

And download the spreadsheet for “Trading Update - Quarter ended 30 June 2018” and look at worksheet “05 Half year regional” then it certainly appears from these that both revenue and EBITDA are less than for the previous HY. Particularly if you include the line right at the bottom for India. But then I am no expert in interpreting these figures so I could be wrong.

Anyway tomorrow will be interesting. Not invested here myself anymore but am still hoping for some kind of reasonably positive result for existing holders.

Pref


#367

Congratulations to all holders, nice ~6-7% bounce today. Not quite sure that the results warranted it from my reading of them, what with declaring a loss and revenue and EBITDA down etc. But hey the market likes it and that is all that matters really.

ATB

Pref


#368

NewBill1703 and Last-Call .
XXXX
Thank you for these two posts .


#369

Hi All,

Happened on this old topic this morning and couldnt help but note that last-call wasnt so far off the mark with his comments on VOD and BP/oil. Neither quite as bad as his predictions (yet) but perceptive anyway.

Cant help but note that movements in the VOD stock price since the results seem to be supporting my theory at the time that the holding the dividend in the results caused a spike that would likely not be maintained. Anyone who sold out after taking the divi and with a nice chunk of the post divi bounce will have played things to perfection. Not clear where things are going from here, probably a function of the markets as a whole I would guess.

ATB for 2019 !

Happy New Year

Pref


#370

Hi Pref,

You mean calls like this before VOD’s SP found support at 143.92 closing low, went- ex-date, then rallied to 170+, before retreating to the low 150s.

So that’s your idea of a perceptive call for this stock? Are you on the piss or just another wind-up? :wink:

Besides, I thought you were long out of this after bottling it near the lows, missing the yield & urging others (like Regardless) to run for the hills? - Regards.


#371

Hi @jackdawsson,

Obviously I’ve hit a nerve here, no intention to offend ?. Not totally fair to edit last-calls post though was it ?. What he actually said in full was:-

Which seems a pretty reasonable thing to say to me, especially given that he was clearly quoting extremes.

Also if regardless did exit after the dividend (as you suggest) he may have done quite well out of it. Lets face it the price today is lower than it was on XD date and he will get the dividend.

As for myself I exited at about 154 sometime before the results as I didnt want the risk of holding in the face of what I expected to be poor results. I am not sorry that I did, I have put the funds to good use elsewhere.

ATB with your investments, as always.

Happy New Year

Pref


#372

Hi Pref,

Thanks. Hit a nerve? It may appear so as one of my problems is that, with exceptions, I’m too polite on financial BBs. I often give the benefit of any doubt rather than seeking to expose.

LC only joined this forum 27th October. VOD was then already 144+. How was he perceptive?

Yes, he had history on another forum, again mostly targeting VOD. I first came across him when SP was higher, though he insisted he’d called it from over 180. Maybe so. I wasn’t on that forum at the time. Verification wasn’t possible as he got himself banned (yet again!) for apparent trolling, with all comments deleted.

What motive might anyone have in extolling a poster who focused on only a few BBs with a veritable barrage of attempted wind-ups, until he got himself suspended? For eg. some 200 posts in a very brief spell on this thread alone.

Suspensions rarely occur on these forums. One has to be exceptionally disruptive & antagonistic to achieve a permanent ban. IMO, anyone giving undue credit to someone with distinct trolling tendencies seems to be throwing down his own gauntlet, despite any apparent facade of politeness.

Don’t get me wrong. LC is transparent & harmless. No-one active on a BB can affect SPs of large volume stocks. He’s also clever. Clever enough to give himself the usual safety-net of, “but I could be wrong”, despite consistent attempted de-ramping. I enjoy some of our disagreements (also some agreements) on other forums. He resurfaces briefly under various aliases… until he gets himself banned again. FWIW, I’m one of very few who defends his right to post. I hold no animosity towards him.

But are his calls worth anything? Well, days ago I called the DOW long. Just before it rallied over 1000 points. Soi, et al, saw & responded to my comment. Did my call mean much? IMO, it meant sh1t as I never put even £1 on it.

Risk-free calls are plentiful on many forums. Talk by itself is cheap. It’s rather akin to running a successful dummy account. But real trading or investing, often at significant personal financial risk, poses an array of other challenges. You of all people should appreciate that.

Regards & likewise all the best for the New Year!


#373

I checked my account yesterday, which i hadn’t done in months… wish I didn’t.

my VOD holding not including the latest divy was about 15% down here… wondering If I can dump it tomorrow and move else where for a quicker / better return. Maybe RDSB or BUR

MY main concern here is the bounce back up has failed and we are slowly going back to 142 testing area again…


#374

@Lastemporer

It’s a valid concern shorter-term. Regardless of my 100% intention to hold until at least 180+ before reducing here, ie. maybe by circa mid-2019, I’m not going to talk my book. Despite seeing a double-bottom reversal at 144 last month (ignoring intraday lows), mid-November’s rally left a gap below. VOD closed 144.36 on 12th November. Next day open 153.90.

You probably know that some gaps don’t get filled for ages, if at all. But in bearish macro-climates affecting most FTSE stocks, with the EU’s decision on VOD’s Liberty Global deal delayed until 2nd May, we can’t rule out much. Including revisits to previous lows.

Mind that’s not a 100% cert. Recent volumes are well below average. That suggests mostly retail selling rather than large funds. But re-testing recent lows not inconceivable. Maybe of interest, fresh major fund activity in VOD for the past year.

Talking of fillable gaps, there are some above as chart below clearly shows. On 14th May VOD closed 207.20. Next day opened 201.

I’ll clarify that my bent towards holding on come what may is not intended as advice to others. Even if I wanted to, I’m no-one to advise anyone in view of the mistimed calls I’ve made. :wink: Your money, your call always applies. Markets can be irrational for longer than some can handle. A recent example here: VOD hit over 170 start of December. It dipped below 150 by the 27th. Even approximate fair value seems elusive when we see such volatility almost month after month. - Regards & GL. Typo: advise, not advice.


#375

For me the problem isn’t VOD, the problem is that it’s part of the FTSE100 and gets included in all the anti EU / Brexit talk, which automatically drags it down.

With all markets and FTSE 100 getting hammered lately it’s dragged it’s technicals back down… now if this fails to bounce this week and next I feel it’s doomed for months.

I’ll be watching very closely this week to see if it happens. if it slips then I’m probably out, due to weak technicals again with no real news to turn (Possibly selling of assets?) and the EU / Brexit + US crap will pull it down further

All IMO.


#376

Update for me, I recently sold VOD for a 15% hit (Maybe slightly less if you include the Feb div) and I moved the funds in BUR.


#377

@Lastemporer,

Best of luck with BUR. Being balanced, this below has undoubtedly had some negative effect on sentiment behind VOD. RBC downgraded from 260 to 125. So we have lows of 125, yet others like GS with targets of 300 & slightly lower. IMO, most are joker brokers best ignored. Historically they fare worse than many seasoned investors & traders. - GL.


#378

Motley Fool positive on VOD this morning.

http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/01/12/a-ftse-100-stalwart-stock-for-a-high-yield-retirement-portfolio/

Vodafone is not going down the pan anytime soon and mobile operators tend to be quite resilient against economic downturns.

Prividing a 9% yield, buying VOD at the moment is like buying on a 10% discount. The company says that its yield is secure but even if it was halved the return would be quite reasonable.

This is a geographically well-diversified market leader and in my view must have great recovery potential.

I am investing.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#379

Hi Frog,

Well i don’t have faith in anything the MF says. That was the positive article, I don’t doubt they will publish a negative one soon promising the reverse. That’s their usual mode of operation.

I have said my piece on VOD here previously and haven’t changed my views. I’m out and staying out.

ATB

Pref


#380

As we expected, Motley has published a contrary viewon VOD:

http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/01/15/why-id-shun-the-vodafone-share-price-and-buy-this-stock-instead/

I still believe it is investable.

All the best,

Frog in a tree