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The conundrum

lse:fum

#61

It shouldn’t, but it always surprises me when the sp reacts to results which are exactly ‘as expected’.
I suspect that the potential success of MED conflicts directly with the CSD sales - so why pay a premium for a product where the market will potentially decrease once MED released into the wider public, especially if over the counter. Still, I would suspect that a market for it would still exist… just needs some clever negotiating from a company wishing to licence. It’s a shame to see all the hard work and patience over the years wasted. Equally it is probably not in FUM’s interest when trying g to licence out MED and negotiating prices etc to have one of their own products in competition - and I would be surprised if the potential suitors haven’t said exactly that.


#62

Nice to see the share price rising a little bit, hopefully this will now really start to build some momentum up to phase 3 results.

Good luck everyone!


#63

Or is it just the ups and downs we have seen over the past months.
Hmmm-doubtless there will be a steady rise before the Ph3 results but they’re 8 months away at least-whaddayouthink Aberdeen?


#64

Well, given we have passed the half way point (a few weeks ago) and recruitment is in full swing with all centres open, and so far there have been no serious withdrawals, the probability of something going wrong now is decreasing rapidly… (touch wood, fingers crossed )

There are also strong rumours of some companies trying to get exclusive negotiating rights IF the results are as we expect… and given the level of detail that has gone into planning the phase 3 trials, these should improve on phase 2…I can’t elaborate much further on this I’m afraid.

However I am of the firm opinion that holding exclusive negotiating rights would do more damage than good to us… If we do get multiple parties interested then they need to get the cheque book out as opposed to holding exclusive negotiations…

Good luck everyone!


#65

Another example of where we could potentially help!!


#66

What is going on? sharp increase today!!!


#67

We should be just over 50m market cap if we end like this today.

What were other small pharma’s by Mcap before P3 results? Can anyone remember any examples?


#68

I’m still keeping an eye on the trademark “Dermamax” applied for by Thornton & Ross on 25/2/2019 which I’m confident relates to TPR, in particular when FUM said they were “Supporting Thornton & Ross on responses to initial MHRA feedback received in February 2019.” in their results. Too much of a coincidence that Dermamax was applied for in the same month.

My guess is that the trademark will complete registration this month. In the results webcast, Ken James said that the lab work to address the MHRA queries would take “a few weeks” then “a few weeks more” to formally gain approval, so this again could coincide with the registration of Dermamax.

IMO formal approval for TPR could see STADA (aka Thornton Ross) become interested in FUM as a whole. They may not necessarily ultimately bring MED to commercialisation, but be the owners in its final steps with TPR being some kind of safety net for their investment.

FUM’s current Market Cap makes it very vulnerable to a STADA-like approach. It may upset long term holders, but unfortunately the recent low SP placing could see an accepted take out in the region of 50p to 80p, particularly when FUM don’t appear to have funds in place to complete part 2 of Phase 3.

And still no further launches of CSD which adds fuel to the takeover fire.

All IMO of course


#69

Aberdeen, are Tony’s thoughts in line with your rumour?


#70

Anyone calculated the profit Mr T Adams is sitting on at today’s close. Not bad for a few months work!


#71

Some good points there Tony, but I just can’t see the company management ready to sell the company for a share price that low…(we can agree to disagree on this point)
When the results are announced and if they are good and we hit the clinical end points, I see our value increasing substantially.

I’m confident the management are working hard to sort out any funding that is needed for part 2 and there may well be a few options when it comes down to that…

I’m confident the company are busy and there’s lots happening in the background…

AIMHO


#72

Just been having a look into the dermamax theory, it’s current status now seems to be opposed, not sure what it said when you checked Tony.

Still doesn’t mean it is or isn’t TPR. A third party must have opposed the brand name for being too similar to its.


#73

Interesting! Tony we need an update mate! What does this mean? are we buggered for another year knowing FUM to find another name haha.


#74

The trademark Zeromax did get registered on the 17th of May 2019 though by Thornton and Ross.

The filing date for that was the 19th December 2018.


#75

Yes I’ve noticed the current “opposed” status and I’m not sure how long the dispute carries out. The opponent is:

Omega Pharma Innovation & Development N.V.
Venecoweg 26, 9810 Nazareth, Belgium

Looking at their brands on their own website ……………

https://www.omega-pharma.com/en/our_brands

………. I can only see the “dermalex” as the possible problem. I’d be surprised if their objection is granted as the names aren’t that much the same to scupper dermalex’s current well being, wherever it’s sold! Here it is …………………

https://www.dermalex.co.uk/

And it’s sold in Boots …….

https://www.boots.com/dermalex-repair-and-restore-100g-10252458


#76

I could imagine it being a bit of a painful process if someone opposes it.

I disagree with you Tony I think the names are too similar I think you could easily get the two mixed up.

I find it weird how they applied for zeromax a month before, maybe they thought dermamax sounded better. This is all guessing though.

Anyway we’re getting towards a year since Thornton and Ross applied for regulatory submission, so hopefully we’re due an update soon.

Maybe we’ll find more out at the AGM.

Good luck everyone.


#77

MHRA approval takes up to 210 days but this excludes time to provide further info or data.
Does anyone know if FUM have supplied the follow up data/tests or are still in the lab?
Clearly we are beyond 210 days.


#78

You might be right, Mark, but I still think there is sufficient difference in name and product type for the opposition to fail. Searching for similar words on the trade mark website yields 53 results ……….

https://trademarks.ipo.gov.uk/ipo-tmtext/page/Results

……… some of which are very similar. I remember when Blue Diamond was registered there were products with the exact same name on the international trademark website but the product type was totally different.

I also still think that dermamax is TPR and will be a significant step if approval obtained which should be shortly given the comments made by Ken James (“a few weeks to address the questions then a few more weeks for final approval”) in the results webcast.

Despite the apparent “recent” weakness, the SP is holding up exceptionally well given the Lombard heavy offloading and I have a feeling this is primed for a strong uplift in the coming weeks once TPR is confirmed. All IMO of course.


#79

All I can add there is, 20p needs to hold. If not, could easily shave off another 25-50% from SP. Difficult to call until 20 tested.

3 year downtrend still intact.

A 2019 uptrend intact but only if 20p holding.

The recent near 30p was the long term downtrend getting sold so really can’t overstate 20p importance here.


#80

Nice article on the Guardian.