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The conundrum

lse:fum

#101

Let’s hope so, have to say it’s looking really good at the moment.

  • Recruitment completed on schedule and on budget.

  • TPR update should be soon.

  • Management looking really confident.

We just need MED to back this up with some positive results at the end of the year. It all comes down to that really.

You might be wishing it was all your portfolio by the end of the year Pharmatom :wink:

Anyway good luck everyone! (Especially the long term holders who’ve suffered over the years)


#102

I’m one of those 100,000 at An average of 55p!
5 years!


#103

It’s getting there Bill, keep it going!!

Any ideas on TPR rough update date? 3 months?


#104

At this pace by end of next week :slight_smile: …TPR however, will also be around the same time as the Phase3 outcome I am afraid


#105

Does anyone know if the much heralded negotiators from 2018 have been retained? We were repeatedly told that they were being used to ensure that punchy numbers were delivered. We all know what happened. Just wondering…


#106

With half year results being put out early Sept, I can’t think any worthy news that could come with it?

Can anyone else think of anything? It’s all Oct- Dec really.


#107

I can’t see any news really coming out either, we’re getting to the business end of things now though.

From October to the end of the year I’m expecting news on TPR, and we should get news on MED which is the big one.

I wonder if Futura have any deals in place dependant on phase 3 results, do any of you think they could’ve already signed a deal that depends on the outcome of the results?

Anyway should be exciting times ahead for us.


#108

I thought we might get the TPR submission in Sep from Thornton?
Cash position also important, including any tax back.
Read the STADA half yearly this week, plenty of cash, and still acquiring bits and pieces. I wouldn’t discount them as a suitor.


#109

Hi all, hope you’re all keeping well.

My thoughts exactly, Emtree, regarding STADA as a possible suitor.

FUM’s results last April stated in the webcast that they expected Thornton & Ross and subsequent approval for TPR to be “a few more weeks” but the delay in submission suggests (to me!) a holding back to coincide with Phase 3 MED results then a positive outcome on both TPR and MED may lead to STADA taking out FUM, not necessarily bringing MED to market themselves but essentially financing part 2 Phase 3 and selling.

I’m still keeping an eye on the possible TPR trademark Dermamax for which the latest status is “Defence filed/Evidence period” after being opposed.

All in all a waiting game but with hopefully a meaningful update with the interims, but the Market is still liking FUM having held up exceptionally well in the 40s for over a month now so fingers crossed for the next leg up which I’m forecasting to start the end of next week before the Holiday break (preferably sooner!).


#110

One announcement that may come out in early September is the completion of phase 3 trial.

The team will then get busy unblinding the data and hopefully have something for us by the end of November


#111

It’s really nice to see how strong the share price is holding up today.

In the past a Lombard offload would hit us pretty hard but now we seem to absorb the shares really well. Like Tony said the market is really liking FUM.

And with hopefully only good news to come after a few painful years, we will reap the rewards.


#112

Can sell 300000 shares at the moment, can’t even buy 5000. Big demand from someone.


#113

You beat me to it MtheM. At around 10.45am I could sell up to 150,000 shares. I suspect someone may be accumulating…?

I also think that Lombard are also using the price strength to offload some more today as well. They tend to offload of late at around 44p +

Let’s see how the future pans out for FUM.

GLA


#114

It’s a cut throat world and FUM found themselves in the helpless position they did when they needed to raise funds.
FUM just need to smash phase 3 trials and LO might end up buying again!
All hell will break loose.
Come on FUM. Do us long time suffering share holders proud.


#115

Few more details about P3 here:

OCT Clinical Trials Successfully Recruits 700 Patients for Phase III Erectile Dysfunction Study

OCT, Eastern Europe’s leading CRO, partners with UK-based Futura Medical; completes clinical trial enrollment for MED2002, a topical gel developed to treat erectile dysfunction.


#116

Watching proceedings today adds ‘credibility’ to the theory that there’s someone currently accumulating under the ‘cover’ of Lombard doing the reverse.

If the results are great, I firmly believe that MED will be the new Viagra. Furthermore, I don’t think there is a requirement for it to be priced closely to that of Viagra. Most ED sufferers are going to be in their 30’s onwards, and as such, won’t (in general) be having ‘special nights/days’ on a huge number of occasions per week or month. If the results are great, it will be clear that MED is a far better alternative than Viagra and hence, even with a price differential, why would users want ‘cotton’ when they can have ‘silk’ for their ‘special evening’?

I don’t think that Tony’s opinion that Stada may be the suitor would be right as I don’t think they’d be able to compete with the Tier 1 players.

Am wondering if we do have someone accumulating at the moment, if it may be a potential suitor? I’m not 100% clued up on the RNS laws for this but I believe there wouldn’t need to be an RNS until 10% was breached? If this was the case, if I were a suitor I’d remain just under the radar (10%) and if the results are great, buy like mad till you reach the level where you’re allowed to reach (30%?)! The stock price would ‘pop’ but even if you’re paying eg £1.50 per share, it’s still an absolute bargain compared to what you’ll have to pay in a takeover negotiation where there are multiple interested parties (& there’d be high volume available as holders ‘cash in’ directly after the news announcement).

Perhaps wishful thinking but perhaps not? :))

Either way, I totally agree with Daring Aberdeen that ‘all hell will break loose’ if the results are great.

GLA


#117

I agree Fx something must be going on behind the scenes, yesterday and today I’ve been able to sell high amounts at times if I wanted.

Like yesterday at one point I could sell 300k shares.

Lombard do seem to be offloading a bit still but like you said someone else is buying in.

A company or companies seem to be getting ready for results.


#118

Hi fx, the threshold is you mention is 3% of holdings.


#119

Yes the threshold is 3 percent but it is relatively easy to get around the 3 percent rule and it would be impossible for someone to find out (if the accumulation was done properly through different accounts etc.


#120

What are your opinions on exclusive negotiations?

I know we are getting ahead of ourselves here but do you think if there were multiple interested parties, that FUM should enter exclusive negotiations if it were offered by a company (obviously with an associated payment too)?
I really don’t think they should…
I think FUM should just tell all of the interested parties to get their skates on and start negotiating and get the cheque book out if they want to sign on the dotted line