Menu
Close

Thoughts on Future Market Cap

lse:fum

#1

Our market cap is sitting at around £65m. I understand that there’s a high element of risk in the sense that so much rides on the quality of the MED 3a results. However, IMHO the risk:reward is ridiculously high.

Why is this?

My former working life was centred around the Pharma/Biotech sphere. My ‘new life’ is centred around the Tech startup sphere. In this sphere, initial potential demands securing adequate early stage funding in order to launch what’s known as a minimal viable product. In the UK, this funding market has been getting a lot better than it was just 5 years ago. However, the risk tolerance still remains far lower here than in the USA. So much so that if you can raise say £500,000 in London, you’d likely be able to raise $2 to $3m in Silicon valley.

I think a severe lack of risk tolerance in the UK is why our market cap is crazily low. FUM is after all a start-up. Indeed, this is in a sense backed up by the fact, that despite some good UK PR, at present, we only have one institutional investor (LO). The likes of Neil Woodford’s (formerly risk tolerant) fund being hammered, really hasn’t helped matters.

However, the situation has the potential to reverse quite rapidly IMHO. Firstly, if James Barder & Co present FUM well at the large US sexual health conference in October, this could result in very favourable US PR. If American investors were to see what I would term “a shockingly attractive risk:reward ratio” in this small startup British stock, you could see a rapid rise as a consequence. This, as in the America, you just wouldn’t see risk:rewards anywhere as attractive as they are here. America has a very established long term investment structure for both risky and less-risky proposals. As a consequence, most innovation takes place on their shores.

Secondly, if the 3a data is good or excellent, that ‘high risk’ is immediately markedly lowered, thus opening up to a much larger plethora of investors (both private & institutional). This is before you take any large Pharma interest into consideration!

The above is why, like Daring Aberdeen, I’m in to the (hopefully sweet) end.

GLA


#2

FX, I did some calculations a while back and there’s a wide margin when it comes to valuations.
I estimated a share price between £1.80 and £3.60 implying a market cap of around 360 million pounds to 720 million.
However calculations are just calculations. They don’t mean for much.
The most important thing is to show increased efficacy as the dose was increased in these trials. Not long to go now (less than 3 months)


#3

I agree everything primarily depends on the quality of the data. Additionally, it will depend on the length of remaining patent plus whether or not there’s any easy route to increase it eg Glaxo tweaked the molecule used in Acyclovir to get to Valacyclovir in order to get a fresh patent.

The other factors are quality of the differentiation compared with the existing therapies (which I think is very strong) and finally how keen a large player would be to have what I think (if the 3a data is good enough) will become the market-leading therapy. And let’s not forget a potential re-birth of CSD500 which again, I think is a great potential product that the right player could challenge Durex’s lead with.

I think your valuation range may be quite conservative (with great data). With this in mind, what would one assume (at this stage where the 3a study remains blinded) the potential probability for achieving great data is? 50% 60% 70% 80% ?

I would suggest our current market cap implies a very slim chance of achieving great data which I personally do not believe is the case ie the current Risk:Reward is huge.


#4

Good post fx24. That sums up why I am here.
Gla from St Louis Missouri.


#5

Wow Mr T. The world is indeed a small place! Thanks for posting that.

To add a little to the risk profile thoughts: Does anyone know if the open label safety assessment has already begun? Because if it has, before the 3a study has been unblinded, would IMHO infer there were very few adverse side effects in any of the 3a subjects (placebo or actual dose). Otherwise, it would be very foolish to subject the Open Label participants to the highest dosage.

GLA & have a good weekend


#6

Fx - it is my understanding that the open label has already begun. 300 patients will be in the open label for 6 months and 100 will continue for a further 6 months.
The feedback from one of the presentations was that they were very happy with the safety profile (as per the data from the PK Study which also backed this up)


#7

From my daily FUM obsession I see there is a new website. There seems to be some more stats on MED commercials which may help you fx related to marketcap. Also lots of good quotes from the panel expert supporters in the Urology world.

Event calendar looks busy:

Search
EVENT CALENDAR
Home Media
Event calendar

Representatives from Futura Medical will be in attendance at the following conferences and events.

If you wish to meet our representatives, please contact us at info@futuramedical.com.

20th Annual Fall Scientific Meeting of the Sexual Medicine Society of North America (SMSNA)
Nashville, US

24 October 2019

27 October 2019
View
Jefferies 2019 London Healthcare Conference
London, UK

20 November 2019

21 November 2019
View
J.P. Morgan 38th Annual Healthcare Conference (JPM 2020)
San Francisco, US

13 January 2020

16 January 2020
View
22nd Congress of the European Society for Sexual Medicine (ESSM)
Prague, Czech Republic

23 January 2020

25 January 2020.


#8

I see there is a James Barder look alike on the new website


#9

All this investment perhaps gives a hint that positive news may be on the horizon? Let’s hope so.

Well spotted our imperial friend.

GLA


#10

The new website gives much more detailed information on patent protection and data protection laws and exclusivity periods when it comes to a topical treatment such as MED. I encourage everyone to take a read.

Based on historical experiments measuring the blood flow by Doppler ultrasound using various concentrations of MED, we have seen that there was a significant improvement as the MED concentration was increased. There was almost nothing at the lower doses and then all of a sudden a significant improvement when it was increased to the 0.2%.
I, for one feel Futura Medical has been very cautious when increasing the doses (for example only the 0.2% dose was used in the phase 2 trial)
I think with the levels of MED Concentrations used in the phase 3 trials, we will all be in for a very good surprise. Especially when you look at the PK Data (which in my opinion de-risked the trial to some extent). Had the PK Data shown that not all of the MED was absorbed into the blood stream as the concentration was increased, I would have been a bit more hesitant, however thankfully there was an excellent dose related response.

Hopefully we all see the following HEADLINE DATA,
“Phase 3 trial exceeds expectations”


#11

How long have you had this daily FUM obsession?

Has it got to the point where you have noticed “FUM” on number plates?
Has it got to the point where you are sitting in meetings and when someone writes “MED” on a whiteboard against a list of priorities, you instantly think it’s MED2005 and not “MEDIUM”?
Has it got to the point where your internet history is awash with searches on Erectile Dysfunction and Condoms?
Has it got to the point where every company you have worked with, you have managed to get everyone siting around you to buy into FUM and become shareholders?
Has it got to the point where you have spent a weekend phoning up Pharmacies in Saudi Arabia asking if they still stocked SuperManex Condoms?
Has it got to the point where people you work with refer to the product as “Aberdeen’s co…ck rub”?
Has it got to the point where you have dreamt about attending a Futura Medical AGM and could not get to the front row because it was attended by dwarf’s?
:slight_smile:


#12

It also references Placebo as 25%.

Barder is back on taking investor questions?
Alternatively, please contact James Barder, Chief Executive or Angela Hildreth, Finance Director and Chief Operating Officer at:

Futura Medical plc
Surrey Technology Centre
40 Occam Road
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 7YG

investor.relations@futuramedical.com


#13

Random news today I saw…RARX on the nasdaq was acquired by UCB for $2.1m. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ucb-to-acquire-ra-pharmaceuticals-in-21-billion-deal-2019-10-10-21032845)

I then had a look at the RARX pipeline: https://rapharma.com/pipeline/ No drugs approved, 1 in P3… main product being:

"Zilucoplan
Ra Pharmaceuticals is developing zilucoplan for generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG), immune-mediated necrotizing myopathy (IMNM), and other tissue-based complement-mediated disorders with high unmet medical need. The product is designed for convenient, subcutaneous (SC) self-administration.

Zilucoplan is a synthetic, macrocyclic peptide discovered using Ra Pharmaceuticals’ powerful proprietary drug discovery technology. The peptide binds complement component 5 (C5) with sub-nanomolar affinity and allosterically inhibits its cleavage into C5a and C5b upon activation of the classical, alternative, or lectin pathways."

This is a rare disease like all their pipeline, it’ also very complex , I imagine the trials needed and data for liver toxicity / damage etc is so much more complex for any study to approval.

Back to marketcap… are we that FAR off / different at 75m?


#14

The world of Pharma is a funny world indeed.
When these companies want something, they will pay handsomely to acquire it.
I’ve even seen premiums of 500 percent being paid to closing share prices!!
So let’s hope the phase 3 results exceed our expectations which is then followed by a few large companies trying to aggressively acquire this product


#15

Good to see some positivity on the ii board whilst sp so listless.

Aberdeen - Enjoyed your FUM obsession post.
I always imagined FUM would send you a special one-off product to help you recover from your triumphant streak through the city.
I imagine it’s sub-zero up there already … lol


#16

I’m in Iraq these days and yes, there are some FUM share holders here too now :wink:


#17

Loved the obsession post Aberdeen.
My girlfriend asked how many times I am going to watch the part of the II interview when Mr Barder is asked about the 80 pct continuing on Med.
His reaction is about as perfect as it gets.


#18

Some say………………………… Tomascc52 has that video on constant replay…


#19

Wobbly again, should it be right that the company makes a statement if they aren’t looking for funding before P3 headline data? not one is sure and clarification would help… though obviously not if they are… catch 22.

Might be worth emailing Angela on?


#20

But nothing has changed Lastemporer? The company have already made the statement around funding during their last update. If the results are good, it would/should mean the demand for the shares would be higher. Therefore even if there was a dilution at say 50p, it equates to approx. 10 percent dilution. Hardly the end of the world.

The phase 2 results left too many unanswered questions which played against FUM. The phase 3 should answer these questions and therefore remove the uncertainty.
I’m just going to remain calm and see this out.