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lse:vod

#21

Hi ValueSeeker,

Indeed. Also no sharp gap-down this morning, so the priced-in aspect looks good for now. In that sense, I’m glad to have avoided any rash decisions during yesterday’s huge exit.

What would be encouraging is to keep that 131 closing support & near 10-year low previously tested on 4th March & many times yesterday. Though we’ve fallen below that intraday this morning, closing SPs matter far more. As I write, VOD’s SP at 133.50+. - GL


#22

Hi Jack

Thanks for posting the Results

I was out earlier and missed them live, chatting with friends.

For now it seems the market is actually comfortable with them.
So yes, a lot was already priced in.

ATB & GL

soi


#23

Hi Soi,

Thanks. It seems so & perhaps some grounds for calm optimism looking ahead. Reducing any huge debt burden faster than envisaged is generally seen as a positive thing by markets & that certainly applies here in view of the expensive Liberty Global deal. So even though it’s still early in the day & US markets can have a different impact later, I’m content to hold VOD for a while longer.

As mentioned elsewhere, since booking more gain on LLOY in April, VOD is my biggest financial stake by far when combining both shares & leverage. Any hit would’ve been large & not taken lightly. FWIW, I slept less than 5 hours last night mulling over different scenarios, which tells its own story.

But for now at least, a slight sense of relief here more than anything else. - Regards.


#24

LSE:VOD
Those results don’t make pretty reading… but then it strikes me a few people probably knew that yesterday. The City seems to have more leaks than the Cabinet!

The only crumb of comfort I can find in the numbers is the FCF - they are still generating decent chunks of cash.

Oh well. I still prefer it to BT but that’s a bit like saying I prefer a stinking cold to the flu.

Regards,
ITDYA


Picked some up.
#26

Money sucked in here yet again with transient early false dawn bounces up to 136.40+ highs, only to finish at new L/T low of 126.84. Volume again high. Indicates more large funds exiting.

Hard to see many positives right now. Revenues well down, competition rising, key markets heading for downturns, debt high, Liberty Global deal to add more new debt whilst not seeing maximum profit benefits for a good few years yet. Might we be better off if the EU refused to sanction this deal? Standard use of 5G technology is still years away, whilst prices will come down. EU decision next month.

Having not bailed earlier, I’m now in for the longer ride. Will collect another dividend at least, XD 6th June. But I’ve set preliminary targets of at least 160+, more likely 165+, to reduce or exit this altogether. So maybe by next year.

Only myself to blame 100% of course. When we spiked to 170+ early December, it crossed my mind, however briefly, to exit. I dallied, delayed & sat for 180+ instead. Huge error & exceedingly blinkered! :pensive:

Only hope we’re not headed to revisit lows of 115 seen 10 years ago. VOD’s 10-year chart looks as awful as it is. - GLA.

PS: Previous post (to Ripley) deleted by me as I was replying to him in another VOD thread. I linked this one & unintentionally ended up replying to Ripley in this thread. Cheers.


#27

LSE:VOD
I can see why income funds might exit… the 40% hit is not insignificant but I’ve heard an argument today from up a guy up in town that it’s not enough.

His argument is that my FCF analysis is total, complete garbage. High tech company, old kit is almost redundant the moment it’s installed… depreciation is very real because you have to replace it almost immediately!

He said the FCF here is whatever they want it to be simply by delaying replacing out of date kit.

Regards,
ITDYA… but they cannot be alone, it must be everyone… so higher prices, slower roll out or everyone is bankrupt?


#28

Today’s close at 126 at least only slightly down on yesterday’s, plus on significantly lower volume than seen past 2 days, though still well above average. Today’s volume over 125m. Past 2 days were over 168m & 181m respectively (source ADVFN), indicating significant reductions from larger funds.

In perspective, VOD’s average 1-year daily volume about 84m. Once bigger holders exhaust their selling, there’s a reasonable chance we’ll finally find support. - GLA.

Maybe of interest: current major short positions on VOD at 2.79%, which is down from their peak a few weeks ago. When more shorts close, that will also help lift SP. Something to keep an eye on.

https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BH4HKS39/

Edit: added VOD short tracker. Cheers.


#29

Hi Jack. I agree with your view on volumes up to this morning. Here is my take.

Funds sold off the last two days as you suggested. And sold hard. However funds never sell today and buy tomorrow. Not their style. Their consideration also takes into account, their view of the next quarter to six months.

So if they were not the ones buying the low today, who was? People like you and me.

Given the fact that one institution can blow away six months of us lot buying in one move , it’s rarely advisable to back a support thats obviously not funds

Just my view on it. A retail show of support. And possibly a retail play on ex div date approach (still a decent rate ).

But when funds pull out hard so close to ex div, it’s concerning. That’s dividend support pulled and even though still decent, they then must not have much faith to July 're they see a much larger capital risk to div return on this.

Also note, see how heavy the Put options went up for the end of July? Took big money to create that level. Fund money? Gone into Puts to recoup any capital ?

Dodgy times. No rise interests me to buy. Would be blown way via the options market.


#30

I’d never buy their dumping. Them dumping easily means big money gone into shorting instead. Be fighting normal sentiment + now, their Puts recoup. Bigger bear. Imo


#31

Short tracker.

From 2015 to August 2017, short interest dropped from around 1.5% to 0%. The near 50% sp fall therefore , occurred in a ‘reduced to zero’ short interest.

Short interest has increased from 0% in March.

Depends how you look a it. Short term or the overall? One is positive. Other very negative.


#32

Your not the only one. You wonder if they botched there gameplan or wether they have kept up with jones 's
I’m inclined to think they know what they are doing albeit it seems a longterm haul however i would have hoped they divested thier monies a little into other cash generative operations such as mobile game apps platforms and so forth.
Anyway they still generating a lot of cash and i hope they will makes more with this expenditure.


#33

Hi Armageddon,

Thanks. Some VG points in your other posts & I generally agree with the above. As I mentioned to Ripley 2 days ago in his “Picked some up” thread, I’ve no intention of topping up or averaging down here at any foreseeable point. Far too much uncertainty ahead, I’ve enough exposure as it is & things can certainly get worse before they get significantly better.

Markets can be wrong some of the time. Occasionally they are. But they are never wrong for very long. For eg. when we see protracted selling on larger volumes leading to longer downtrends.

However, once I’ve nailed my colours to a certain mast, I won’t change course a mere 48 hours later. I decided on Tuesday that I’ll ride out further storms here. So I will. However, I’ll most probably review matters after VOD’s XD on 6th June. I have a rough ballpark figure for my exit at a significant loss. That now seems inevitable. But I’ll be doing nothing for now. - Regards.

PS: Catch all later as I need to leave my desk a few hours.


#34

I agree with that. One thing I would do if I was in here from higher up, is plan a buy at below 100p and 0% dividend. I wont go into it but I think that’s buy time or average down time.

For now, the etf instruments related, and the sector chart etc just not giving the call. I’d like both of those and the company share to shout out at the same time… tends to be the real lows found. Long way from that but obviously need to monitor the trio


#35

Could be the case. Problem is the returns on investment these days. Tight and highly competitive. My punt is, the city want these companies to not be paying a dividend. I think its key to get back to a genuine SP support.

Won’t suit income funds but they had a party here since 2006. The volumes suggest they did a lot of vod buying in that year. 2008 never squeezed their capital input prices. They had a free div ride for 13 years.

Do note when div got cut… nearly back at those 2006 prices. And cut when most income funds would bail out their capital input prices.

Timed beautifully for them. Go figure lol


#36

Poor end to an awful week here. The rot continues, though seems to be slowing down. Another near 10-year closing low today at 124.24. Volume again above average for a 5th straight day. VOD’s average over 84m. From Monday respectively, over 168m, 181m, 128m, 114m & today over 120m.

As mentioned before, when we’ve protracted falls on high volume, it indicates a repricing that’s likely to hold awhile without fresh good news. Latter hard to imagine anytime soon. Thus, SP could be stuck near lower levels for ages.

As a footnote: a top CEO with a proven track record is significant to rebuilding market confidence. I think with former CEO Colao the market felt that despite challenges ahead, VOD were at last steered by a safe pair of hands. The sell-off since results on 14th, which many thought had all negatives priced in, suggests there’s still little confidence from markets in this CEO or his forward guidance. Good CFOs don’t necessarily make top CEOs. So far, Nick Read has failed to impress.

NB: Short positions on VOD have gone up from 2.79% when I posted 2 days ago to 3.30% as I write. - GLA.


#37

To clarify & give perspective to yesterday’s comment: rise in short positions to 3.30% seems worse than it is. Only short positions of 0.5% or higher are registered. The hedge fund Arrowgrass Capital Partners increased its shorts from 0.49% to 0.51% on the 16th. Hence the jump to 3.30%.

However, the 3.30% figure is bound to be higher overall as it doesn’t include all short positions held on VOD below 0.5%. - Cheers.


#38

I won’t refer to VOD’s SP for a while after today. Not until we see confirmation of a change in trend. However, after 6 successive days of lower closes on above average volume, today saw a higher close at 126.40, despite falling intraday to lows of 122.22. Volume also VG at over 177m.

Not that I’m yet convinced by this, as much as I welcome it. VOD probably needs to close above 131, previously a L/T support level, for me to consider that we may have finally found a floor here.

PS: I’ve read that VOD’s share buyback of MCB shares ended today. So seeing SP at 10-year lows recently has at least been of some advantage to VOD. - GLA.


#39

Interesting now. No shorter value yet at a low. And got a sign of a bounce coming. So whilst I remain doggedly bearish, il buy a spread to cover 5-10% bounce from 127.70 . Should at least test 131 if that opens . I’d expect to go a bit above it if does, before shorter interest increases.

Mainly due to it historically in its bear market period, yielding 5-10% for traders in buys.


#40

're 127.70 mid price. Every time I take a buy strike price i get caught out


#41

@jackdawsson

You doing any cover for all this volatility in buys? I know you don’t do shorts much, if any.

But I really like the SLV etf cover. It’s one of those I think you can regularly subscribe to. And one day it will pay out in the long term regardless imo.

I’m a big believer in one short for every three buys in shares during bull markets (but not as cover. Expect the short to drop anyway)

But I think slv is pretty cool

I’m subscribing with no timing, monthly. Get that for a £1.50 fee. Then I add £500 for any call on day to month chart too.

Going to do that all the way up and down until reaches 20.00.

Then let it carry on with no sub or addition.

Certainly worth considering. Far smarter than me commenced it . And these guys haven’t bought such cover in ten years , whatever their reasons