To be fair, if anyone investing their hard earned in HUR didn’t know that they had farmed 50% to Sprit then they ought not to be investing… anywhere.
Ricfle, I fully expect HUR to present revised numbers for estimated reserves at the Capital Markets Day to be held Q1 2020. We await news on when the Comptent Persons Report on reserves estimates will be published, so much news to come, the figures already quoted could easily be conservative. We will see.
And the figure will be 200% of the CPR value, plus the downside from WD? A very accurate prediction! How do you back it up?
Why are you assuming there will be a revised CPR, do you have a link to where HUR are stating that they will commission a revised CPR?
I cannot say I have seen such a statement.
I look forward to being proved wrong.
I don`t need to back anything up, wait until Thursday to hear what Dr T has to say regarding the development of a supergiant oil field, defined as 5 billion barrels producible oil - 1P reserves. I am sure even you can wait for that.
This is the problem with these boards, people think that they can post any old rubbish and others should swallow it hook line and sinker.
I am expecting no new information from Dr T’s lecture on the 28 Nov, as it would be wrong of him to do so without informing the market first.
If you cannot “back it up” you are just talking rubbish and should be ignored.
Some posters on other bb who obtained tickets for Dr Ts lecture on Thursday have had them withdrawn as the event is now for Oil Club members only, could be down to one saying he would record the event. However it looks as if Dr T will restrict his lecture to reproducing in similar format as previously because no new information will be released.
Which leads me to think testing of WW is likely to continue on into next weekend before official news at the start of December.
We shall see.
I’m still hopeful for initial flow rates etc tomorrow, then he can include it on Thursday.
But please not Wednesday when I will be 30000ft in the air.
Really? My understanding is it was a free event as long as you joined the Scottish Oil Club (SOC) for free.
No doubt you are referring to “Truonesol’s” post on ADVFN.
No new information will be released at the SOC event as it would be illegal, whether you or the halfwit “truonesol” have tickets or not. I have told you this several times, without a meaningful response so do not try and backtrack now to cover your stupidity.
ash, Yes I am sure he would want an RNS out prior to Thursday evening so he could confirm the success at WW. You never know we may get a partial result of testing in the next three days if testing completion does have to extend into next weekend or beyond. As far as I am concerned the more they test the better the likely result. The promotion for the event stated HUR have produced in excess of 2.1 m barrels from Lancaster, and the half year results estimate was 2019 production to be 2.8 million barrels, which since May is a great achievement, they are targeting 6 million barrels for the whole of 2020.
I agree that Dr Trice would like to confirm the success of Warwick West on Thursday evening. I’m sure he would like to have some good news to include in his presentation instead of the info that is already freely available on the Hurricane web site. However, if there is news of the DST in the WW it will be necessary for an RNS to be issued prior to the evening of the presentation.
One subject that the market appears to have ignored recently is the apparent success of the EPS on Lancaster. There have now been six months of consecutive production and the share price continues to hang around the 39p - 44p range. That’s a far cry from when the share price was at it’s highest of 64p when Hurricane wasn’t producing. It looks as if we need a good result from the WW well, continued good production from the EPS on lancaster and a CPR to improve the 2P on Lancaster, all of which should result in a more realistic share price.
Perhaps we are still seeing the knock on effect of the WD duster and the Kerogen sell down. I wonder if Kerogen will sell further shares. When the Kerogen sale was announced it stated that their remaining shares would be subject to a" lock up" period of 120 days. That period has now passed and perhaps Kerogen will continue as a substantial investor in Hurricane without selling any more shares.
Hi carliol, Yes this share business is a funny old game. The Kerogen tranche sell off was touted as a means of freeing up a large amount of shares to encourage more institutional investors to get on board and hold HUR as an investment in their portfolios. so IIRC they sold loads in the market in the spring for around 45p prior to to WD duster result in July. Shortly after the sale Kerogen exercised options to buy more shares a lot cheaper than they sold the others for. Chrystal Amber did likewise, sold shares in the markets and then exercised cheap options. I believe K and CA still have cheap options to exercise so we could have a rinse and repeat. I fully understand both need to make and take some profits, however buying back for half of what you sold for is a nice thing to be able to do. It could be argued that PIs had a similar opportunity to do so in the volatile HUR sp market, but you would have been very skilled and have strong nerves to do so. However the Kerogen exercise has done nothing for the share price and afaik no new big ii shareholders have declared an interest, and as you say the WD disappointment just added to the malaise. So perhaps next time Kerogen will only sell some when the share price rises by 75% or so, or better still agree to sell only when a bidder makes a suitable offer?
However WW looking good so far, so will 2020 be our year?
Where do you get your information from?
CA had an option of some 22m shares at 20p from the fund raising in 2016. Kerogen had an option to maintain their stake on CA exercising their option.
CA, from its operating terms, can have no greater that 30% of its portfolio in HUR, after selling down its stake well below this level, CA exercised their options in May 2019. They have been constantly trading HUR shares as they see fit.
Kerogen also exercised their options at the same time and immediately sold all 6m odd shares.
CA and Kerogen have no more options in HUR.
Kerogen sold about 6% of HUR or 110m shares on the 17 July 2019, leaving them 16% or 318m shares. No reason was given for this sale and certainly it was not to encourage other ii’s to buy. Kerogen do not trade shares in HUR as they have a director on the board of HUR and have to notify the market of all transactions.
On the 11 July 2019 AFFM S.A. purchased 5.37% of HUR or 106m shares.
HUR SP will not be moved in any substantial manner, due to its MC, without the involvement of ii.
ii will not invest before the WW well result knowing a poor result could hammer the SP by 20-30%.
ii will be looking at the Jan 2020 CMD, but from the number of EPS off loads, it can be clearly seen that HUR are presently exceeding the 6 month production guidances figures and will be at guidance month 8-9 at the CMD. This seems quite successful to me. Will the ii use this knowledge to start accumulating a stake before the CMD?
Didn’t think that was true, I thought they had no restriction rules bar the common sense of RB?
You will need to look at the CA annual reports, Pijoe1212 found the exact quote and I cannot be bother to look it up.
If you remember RB of CA was banging on about HUR corporate governments at the back end of 2017. This was due to CA SP being dominated by HUR and their investors did not like it. RB tried to cover up his cockup by blaming HUR management.
Feel free to check CA NAV and you can clearly work out the percentages, or compare CA and HUR SP graphs during that period where HUR SP controlled CA SP. Hardly a balanced fund as CA’s investors had been promised!
A situation controlled by RB’s greed, no common sense required.
Since CA appointment of a new chairman in early 2018 and no doubt backlash from his investors, RB has had to sick to the max’ 30% rule.
`RB’s greed’ is presumably the same motivation that persuades us to invest our hard earned cash in HUR.
CA became `unbalanced’ simply because RB had become convinced that investing in HUR shares would pay
@Ricfle I knew I’d seen this somewhere. (June 2018)
Oh I remember that well, lead to one of the board leaving though we did actually get better corporate governance soon after. (which I mistakenly thought was leading to coming off AIM to a full listing)
Ricfle, Re options, yes the exercise a few months back was the last one. No more options left to exercise for Kerogen or Chrystal Amber. Should be good news for the share price so long as they continue to hold. But all shareholders are here to make money, and all will have their price, I note you will be moving on at some point between 70 and 80p
and/or avoid losing it. The current inflation rate is 1.75% but I can see this changing quite dramatically on Brexit, so being in an oil stock where the assets are priced in dollars makes very good financial sense if the pound goes down in value as it might well
Folks, anyone hazard an educated guess as to when we will know the findings with the latest drill?