FTSE for Friday: what the charts say about FTSE 100 prospects
At the end of a bruising week for the UK's blue-chip index, independent analyst Alistair Strang's software has produced a fresh set of forecasts.
19th April 2024 07:33
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
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The FTSE 100’s “Will it or won’t It?” antics have become quite distressing as the UK market refuses to behave.
For us, the issue started on 16 February last year, a day when the FTSE hit a high of 8,047 points, closing the session at 8,012 points. By achieving these highs, the market laid down a fairly clear set of rules for the future, two target levels which, if both were exceeded, we’d logically anticipate a climbing period ahead for the index.
Unfortunately, despite teasing investors the FTSE remains moribund, with the highest set of results being on 12 April, a high of 8,044 and a closing price of 7,995 points. Typically, when intraday highs start to exceed prior highs, it gives a fairly reliable indication of good times ahead, but with this set of results we now lack confidence.
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Following on from Tuesday's big fall of 172 points, the market has been struggling to show coherent recovery, and it’s currently the case where below 7,793 risks triggering reversal to an initial 7,726 points and a very possible rebound.
The difficulty comes with closure below 7,726 as it dumps the FTSE into a zone where ongoing reversal to an eventual 7,556 calculates as possible. Our suspicion currently is what’s going on is being blamed on Middle East war nerves rather than anything solid and, as a result, the market is quite literally colouring within the lines until resolution or otherwise is achieved. For the FTSE, almost regardless of outcome, we suspect the index shall head upward eventually.
Should this scenario trigger, our tightest stop works out at 7,861 points.
However, above 7,861 holds some slight hope as it calculates with the potential of launching the FTSE 100 toward 7,906 points. Our secondary, if such is exceeded, works out at 7,950 points, obviously doubtful given the lethargic nature of the market currently.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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