Smaller companies: on the road – the US

I recently attended the Raymond James US Equities Conference in Orlando. Last year, nearly all investors were singing the praises of the US economy and its resilience. Company management teams were upbeat, predicting 2024 would be a ‘normal year’ regardless of who won the US presidential election. Their optimism paid off, as the US stock market notched up another record year in 2024. 

How times change…

This year, the mood was more mixed and skewed to the negative. Investors were questioning if the era of ‘US exceptionalism’ was ending. Many arrived mentally exhausted, reeling from the announcement of China’s low-cost ChatGPT rival, DeepSeek, and its implications for the US tech sector. The US earnings season also seemed longer this year. While most companies beat earnings forecasts, many were cautious on guidance due to heightened uncertainty and whipsawing news flow.

The name on everyone’s lips was Donald Trump. Following the election, investors expected Trump to usher in an era of pro-growth, low-regulation policies that would drive the American economy. Few anticipated he would impose aggressive tariffs on its closest neighbours, Mexico and Canada, causing market chaos and leaving investors reeling.

At the conference, most company meetings followed a similar pattern. Investors asked: what’s the impact of tariffs on your business and what are you doing in response? Companies replied: it’s impossible to quantify or commit to action until we have clarity on their magnitude and implementation. The consensus was that tariffs would likely be inflationary, US interest rates would remain higher for longer, and that the uncertainty was as significant as it was unwanted.

Thankfully, not all my meetings revolved around Trump and tariffs. Two that stood out were companies we hold in our Global Mid-Cap Equity strategy, which recently tuned five, are Tradeweb, and Brown & Brown.

Company meetings…

Tradeweb is a global leader in electronic marketplaces, specialising in fixed income. It’s the number one player in the rates market and second in the credit market. The company operates in an industry with high barriers to entry and has durable competitive advantages. These include a vast client network embedded into workflows, a broad product offering, and robust market data and analytics

My meeting reaffirmed my investment thesis: Tradeweb benefits from long-term secular growth trends, such as increasing electronification of fixed income trading, which is more efficient, cost-effective and liquid compared to voice-based trading. The firm also benefits from expanding global debt pools and rising trading volumes due to rising government and corporate debt issuance and growing interest in ETFs. Since we bought the stock, Tradeweb has gained market share, delivered solid results and thrived amid greater trading volatility.

Next up was Brown & Brown, a diversified insurance broker offering retail and wholesale brokerage and insurance programs. Insurance brokerage is considered the most attractive part of the insurance industry value chain. Brokers own the client relationship, control the economics and enjoy better retention. Importantly, brokers earn fees and commissions without taking the principal insurance risk.

The meeting highlighted management’s laser-like focus on enhancing its competitive advantages in scale, localisation and culture. Brown & Brown continues to deliver strong results, maintaining industry-leading margins and generating robust cash flow. Given wider market volatility and uncertainty, investors have sought safety in names such as Brown & Brown – a reliable long-term growth compounder .

After the conference…

I visited our Philadelphia office, spending time with our US small-cap team. It was great to get their on-the-ground take on all things US and share potential new stock ideas. I look forward to sharing some of those in my next dispatch.

Anjli Shah is investment director at Aberdeen.