FTSE for Friday: where next after all-time high?
Independent analyst Alistair Strang considers the direction of the blue-chip index in the aftermath of an escalation of Middle East tensions.
13th June 2025 09:08
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Yesterday should have brought outpourings of happiness for the UK market, the index finally achieving an all-time high by accelerating beyond the peak at the start of March this year.
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However, it’s likely the Israeli strike on Iran will overshadow everything, Israel moving to remove Iran’s nuclear potentials. In other words, the FTSE will probably experience reversals, regardless of any “higher high” justifications for hope.
With Brent futures currently trading around 7648 cents, we suspect a price level of 8200 will be challenged on the immediate cycle. Our longer-term secondary, if such a point is exceeded, works out at 9072 cents. If the FTSE intends to panic, reversal to around 8760 points looks possible, perhaps with further drops in 100-point increments, producing a secondary target around 8656 points.
At the time of writing, FTSE futures are around 8820 points and we lack confidence in declaring 8760 points as a “bottom” capable of provoking a bounce. Overall, it is even possible to speculate on 8570 eventually making an appearance. Amazingly, the tightest stop loss level is astounding, sitting around just 8845 points.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
But there has been something “funny” with index movements during the most recent eight sessions. Generally, our conclusion is to completely distrust a break of an uptrend, when a share or market price essentially haunts the prior uptrend and continues upward.
This situation often ends with a “surprise” sharp recovery above the prior trend line, meaning we will not be aghast if the market regains direction, finding itself above red and creating a scenario where happy days are ahead.
In summary, we can speculate that any near-term reversals will prove a bit fake and short-lived.
If we’re right, moves next above 8897 points should paint a picture of FTSE gains to an initial 9303 points with our big-picture longer-term secondary calculating at 9715 points.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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