ii view: are Greggs shares good value too?

After a tough 2022, this FTSE 250 company is up by 10% so far this year. Buy, sell, or hold?

Full-year results to 31 December

• Revenue up 23% to £1.51 billion
• Pre-tax profit up 1.9% to £148.3 million
• Cash held of £191.6 million
• Final dividend of 44p per share
• Total dividend for the year up 3.4% to 59p per share

Chief executive Roisin Currie said:

"2022 has been a year of strong progress for Greggs, the result of committed efforts to deliver our strategic growth plan.  The significant opportunities on which the plan is based will remain centre stage in the year ahead as we make Greggs more accessible to even more customers.  Although consumer incomes remain under pressure, Greggs continues to offer exceptional value to people looking for great tasting, high-quality food and drink on-the-go.

"We have an exciting, ambitious plan for the years ahead and, by continuing to nurture what makes Greggs special, I believe we are extremely well-placed to realise the opportunity to become a significantly larger, multi-channel business."

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ii round-up:

Greggs (LSE:GRG) is a UK food-on-the-go maker, distributor and retailer of items including bakery products, sandwiches and drinks. 

Net new store openings of 147 during 2022 grew its outlets to 2,328 at the end of December. 

For a round-up of these latest results announced on 7 March, please click here.

ii view:

Started in 1939, Greggs today employs over 28,000 people. Headquartered in Newcastle, the FTSE 250 company predominantly makes its own products in centralised bakeries. A new pizza making facility is currently under construction in Enfield, North London. 

Its strategy includes growing its store portfolio over time to a potential 3,000 UK stores, increasing its digital related sales such as click & collect and delivery via partner Just Eat, and expanding its opening hours into the evening.  

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For investors, elevated costs such as those for food ingredients and energy remain headwinds, a highly uncertain outlook including a continued cost-of-living crisis for its customers persists, while other food-on-the-go companies such as McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD) continue to hone their offerings. 

On the upside, the expansion of Greggs' store estate continues including record net new openings in its latest full year. A digital push via its app is ongoing, a focus on product categories such as pizza and chicken goujons is being made, and around 500 stores are opening hours into the evening. The value proposition at a time of economic challenge should also be attractive to cost conscious consumers. 

Greggs shares certainly aren't as cheap as its value sausage rolls and are clearly priced for growth, so the business must keep providing evidence it can deliver the goods. On the back of these annual results, and with the consensus analyst estimate of fair value standing at £31 per share, grounds for longer-term optimism persist.   

Positives: 

• Value product offering
• Opening new stores 

Negatives:

• Elevated costs
• Uncertainty economic outlook

The average rating of stock market analysts:

Buy