Must-watch dates for investors in February 2019

Banks results season, Super Thursday and Chinese New Year all get a mention in this must-read heads-up.

February typically heralds good news for investors, with the FTSE All Share up an average 1.6% across the month, based on stock market returns since 1970. 

While it is usually a quiet month in terms of significant events, there are still some interesting developments for investors this year, not least of which is the ongoing tussle between China and the US, which are still embroiled in trade wars.

3 February 2000 - Vodafone acquisition of Mannesmann accepted

Lee Wild, Head of Market Strategy, interactive investor says: "Vodafone (LSE:VOD) AirTouch's hostile acquisition of German rival Mannesmann in 2000 remains the biggest corporate deal of all time. Just weeks after America Online's record $165 billion purchase of Time Warner, Vodafone shelled out over $180 billion to expand its reach across Europe. Affording the purchase was only made possible as Vodafone used its own shares, overpriced during the dotcom boom, to cover the enormous cost. 

"Times have changed for Vodafone. An unwinding of telecoms valuations forced a £28 billion write-down a few years after the deal. Its shares were worth over 400p when it bought Mannesmann, but are now worth just a third of that. They're now significantly undervalued according to many investors, but concerns about growth, the dividend and 9% yield are keeping a lid on the share price."

4 February 2004 - Facebook anniversary 

Rebecca O'Keeffe, Head of Investments, interactive investor says: "Thefacebook.com was launched fifteen years ago – creating an online university directory for Harvard, which then morphed into the largest online social network in the world. 

"Expansions and fund raising followed and on 1 February 2012, Facebook finally announced its intention to IPO. Interest in the launch was huge when it came to market in May, but the share price failed to deliver and just ended the first day in positive territory. In the weeks that followed, Facebook lost over half its value as the market went cold on the stock. 

"However, Faang stocks soon became one of the most sought-after global investments and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) became the darling of the investment world once more – at least until the summer of 2018. Since then many of the Faangs have been suffering, with Facebook in the firing line over a variety of different issues ranging from data & privacy issues, foreign election manipulation accusations, governance concerns and the growing concern about social media addiction on mental health. The big question for Facebook investors is whether it will be able to turn its reputation around in 2019."

7 February 1992 - The Maastricht Treaty 

Richard Hunter, Head of Markets, interactive investor says: "The Maastricht Treaty was signed on 7 February 1992. The treaty, inter alia, laid the foundations for a single currency, the euro, created European citizenship, established a common foreign and security policy, and integrated a (newly) unified Germany into the European Union. In the UK, a part of the Treaty was disputed by the opposition Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. A Conservative movement dubbed the "Maastricht rebels" found themselves at a number which exceeded the Conservative's slim majority in the House of Commons. As such, Prime Minister John Major came close to losing the confidence of the House."

Plus ça change, plus la même chose.   

5 Feb 2019 – Chinese New Year

Rebecca O'Keeffe, Head of Investments, interactive investor says: "The year of the dog was pretty awful for investors in China, as trade wars and other headwinds saw the Chinese equity market tumble. Investors will be hoping that the year of the pig is significantly better. 

"The post Chinese New Year period often sees the economy pick up during the main industrial period immediately thereafter.  Given the amount of stimulus recently enacted by Chinese authorities, investors should be on the lookout for positive economic surprises from China in coming months. And if trade negotiations between the world's two biggest global superpowers are successful as well, then China could well be the place to invest in 2019."

7 Feb 2019 – Super Thursday – Bank of England

Lee Wild, Head of Market Strategy, interactive investor says: "The trend for hyping up a day of sporting events has spilled over into the world of finance, and perhaps even the Bank of England was surprised when it too got its own 'Super Thursday'.

"Britain's central bankers will announce both their latest decision on UK interest rates and quarterly inflation report at midday on the 7th. Of course, each of these has implications whatever is decided, but the Brexit debacle and its impact on economic growth has taken a rate hike off the table. Weak consumer spending and a pullback in oil prices should also deliver a benign outcome on inflation near to the 2% target. While interest rate policy will do nothing to underpin sterling, a soft Brexit, or no Brexit at all, will."

Mid-Feb 2019 - UK banks reporting season kicks in

Richard Hunter, Head of Markets, interactive investor says: "February heralds the full-year results season for the UK banks. Inevitably, Brexit will prove to be a factor, whilst interest rate rises, traditionally positive for banks, have failed to materialise at the pace previously envisaged. Share prices have therefore been under pressure over the last year and investors will be hoping for some positive news, be that in the form of stronger earnings and/or profits, lower bad debts, margin growth, and a continuation of the generally healthy dividend income which the banks currently provide. 

"Leading in to the season, which sees the banks trading on historically low multiples, the market consensus of these shares highlights some interesting points of view – The Royal Bank of Scotland Group (LSE:RBS) (strong buy), Barclays (LSE:BARC) (buy), Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY) (buy), HSBC (LSE:HSBA) (hold) and Standard Chartered (LSE:STAN) (hold). These compare to share price performances over the last 12 months of RBS (down 17%), Barclays (down 17%), Lloyds Banking (down 18%), HSBC (down 17%) and Standard Chartered (down 24%)."

Also commenting on the banking sector, Lee Wild, Head of Market Strategy, interactive investor said: "The banking sector has been slow to bounce back following the financial crisis, and bank-led recessions have historically taken much longer to recover from than merely a shift in the economic cycle. 

"The industry has also undergone a massive restructuring and looks quite different to the one it was before 2008-09. It's true, the banks look better than they did, and those with an emerging markets focus – away from the UK and Europe like HSBC – have done better."