After falling back from a recent high, NatWest share have clawed back some lost ground. Independent analyst Alistair Strang gives his verdict.
Good things tend to come around eventually. For instance, Sunday brought Top Gear and Formula 1, both on the same day. Maybe, like TV, NatWest Group (LSE:NWG) shall eventually provide an almost perfect day, but we’re starting to lose hope.
When we previously reviewed the bank just three weeks ago, we provided a scenario allowing weakness to 205p. Unsurprisingly, the scenario triggered but, somehow, failed to reach our drop target.
Instead, the drop from 221p arrested at 209p, rather than continue to our proposed 205p. Perhaps this indicates some hidden strength, or at least unwillingness in the market for the share price to be utterly trashed.
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While our inclination is to hope for the best, an unpleasant series of calculations suggests weakness next below 209p should provoke reversal to an initial 200p, with secondary, if broken, working out at 188p and hopefully a rebound.
To be fair, if the market opts to follow the previous reversal model, perhaps any rebound should occur around 192p, the level of some previous drops.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance
Presently trading around 221p, NatWest requires to trade above 224p to give a slight tickle to a possibility of positive price movement. Above this level allows us to calculate an initial target now at an insignificant 234p.
Visually, there’s a strong suggestion of some hesitation at such a level, especially as our secondary (should the initial target be exceeded) works out at a game changing 246p, a price level where is becomes sane to imagine better things for the future.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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