NatWest's share price rally and the shoots of spring
Up 350% in five years and 25% so far in 2025, former RBS investors are now approaching a key level at NatWest. Independent analyst Alistair Strang explains.
19th May 2025 07:34
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Our most recent analysis of NatWest Group (LSE:NWG) rather accurately mapped the rise to 506p. From our perspective, things are starting to get quite interesting, thanks to an awful mistake back in 2009 which trapped a bunch of funds at around 57p.
With share price 10:1 consolidation, we’re liable to become interested should the share manage to close above such a level. In the years since our mistake during the financial crisis, we’ve taken rather a lot of time to understand how the stock market works and comprehend how the purchase of RBS shares at around 10p became a loss-making position.
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We’ve a strong suspicion quite a lot of folk managed to trap themselves around the old world 57p and are now breathlessly awaiting the price reaching 570p so they can escape.
The immediate situation for NatWest is – and please remember we’ve a vested interest and risk subconscious bias – now suggests movement above 507p shall provoke further price growth to an initial 513p with our secondary, if bettered, at a longer-term 568p, maybe even 579p. There are already suggestions the 513p level shall provoke some hesitation which, from our viewpoint, now suggests this share price must close above 513p before we next dare adopt a position of optimism for the longer term.
Our reasoning behind this is fairly simple. Share price closure above 513p now kicks open the doors for a longer-term 694p, a point at which we shall probably relinquish quite a few NatWest (aka RBS) shares and reflect on the old school saying, “Share dealing is a long-term game, needing seven years of patience…” We no longer believe such a fallacy. Except for the word “patience"!
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang owns NatWest shares.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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