Is there hope for former National Express firm Mobico?
It was another awful day at the office for this coach operator, but independent analyst Alistair Strang thinks there's an awful lot of bad news already in the share price. Here's his latest forecast.
23rd April 2024 07:51
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
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Something curious appears to be going on with Mobico Group (LSE:MCG), once known as National Express until changing their name in 2023. A rash of negative news, turnover up but profits down, their CFO jumping ship, and accounting issues in their German train division all seem to have conspired toward a pretty dire time since 2020, but watching intraday price shuffles at the start of this week made us pause for thought.
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There were a lot of factors present, indicating the share price could easily slide further downhill but, despite what probably felt like a vile day, things didn’t go anywhere as badly as was possible. Instead, we started to wonder if all the negative news was “factored in” and there shouldn’t be any more surprises left.
The myth of all bad news being “factored in” can often end in tears, and we’re basing our positive bias against the salient detail this share price didn’t entirely collapse.
To prove this inconstant theory, above 59.7p should prove interesting, calculating with the potential of a share price lift to an initial 61.5p with our secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 65.5p. Closure above this secondary value should provide a solid early warning of the share price moving into a region where some Big Picture ambitions become available.
Finally, now below 51p would signal more trouble than four flashing Red lights on an overhead motorway gantry, making reversal to an eventual 39p and hopefully, an ultimate bottom as we cannot calculate below such. For now, as with all bus and train journeys, it’s fingers crossed time!
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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