When will Barclays shares be worth a fiver?
Independent analyst Alistair Strang compares the big UK banks and focuses on prospects for Barclays.
14th July 2025 07:49
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
The crash of 20 March 2020 certainly serves to provide a useful starting point to examine how the three retail banks have performed in the period since. To our utter amazement, NatWest Group (LSE:NWG) has outperformed the other retail banks, even achieving a high of 537p fairly recently, coming close to something we shall regard as a major trigger level at 570p. Above this point, we shall even consider using the word “strength” in conversations about the retail banks.
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But as the chart below shows, NatWest has effectively gone up fivefold since its 100p low in 2020, whereas Barclays (LSE:BARC) has “only” achieved a threefold gain from its 100p low in 2020, effectively matching the behaviour of its stable mate Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY) who moved from 25p to 75p. Unfortunately, the scaling of the chart fails to convey the massive difference, other than highlight NatWest is in the lead.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Barclays is certainly giving sufficient reason for some puzzlement over its relatively lethargic behaviour, but the share price now needs to close a session below 310p to force us to stir the tea leaves again and revisit our future target levels.
The immediate situation suggests the potential for moves above 346p to hopefully trigger an uphill wander in the direction of 370p next with our secondary, if bettered, now at 395p. This secondary is a big deal, capable of allowing this share price to actually close a session above 386p, a visually important trigger level.
From our perspective, even with such a sector as the banks, closure above 386p shall present something about as close as possible to a trade becoming a solid bet, certainly as far as a long-term target of 513p, a potential profit of a reasonable 32%. It’s certainly unusual and uncomfortable taking such a stance as we’re traditionally guilty of a surfeit of caution.
For things to go wrong with Barclays, their share price now needs to dip below 310p to give rise to worry, such a movement calculating with the potential of a drip down to an initial 291p. Our longer-term secondary, should such a level break, works out at 248p, a target which sounds absurd but somehow also matches the mid-term Red uptrend, giving hope for a bounce if such a target makes an appearance.
For now, our inclination is to lean toward optimism for the longer term.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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