Why I'm fairly optimistic about NatWest's share price
Having returned to prices not seen since May 2010, independent analyst Alistair Strang discusses potential for the high street lender to go even higher.
3rd November 2025 07:12
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
When we previously reviewedNatWest Group (LSE:NWG), we’d a grouch above the 551p level and the salient detail the banks share price had failed to close above this target. We don’t actually pluck these numbers out of thin air, instead providing such target levels when they are calculated by two or more of our formula. Thus, our demand that the share price close a session above 551p wasn’t just a fit of pique, but rather something which had been carefully calculated.
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The market has chosen an unusual (for the UK) method of bypassing a problem area. In the USA, it’s more common than folk would believe for the markets to choose to gap something up or down when a price stumbles across a level such as NatWest's 551p.
As the extract from the chart below highlights, the UK market opted to solved the issue by simply gapping the share price above the zone of difficulty. When this occurs in the USA, a share price has been deemed worthy of great things, usually commencing a cycle upward which, while it may experience hesitation at some altitudes, the overall force remains upward.
Unless, of course, something causes the market to gap the share price downward. Invariably, this is a really bad thing, one of the worst market signals being the GaGa – Gap Up, Gap Down – where events rarely end well for a share price.
For now, we’re optimistic about NatWest, movement above 589p expected to trigger further price recovery to 595p with our secondary, if bettered, now calculating at 627p. Overall, it is now possible to believe a future 778p is exerting an influence on this share price, a level where it almost must plateau.
In the event things intend to go wrong, below 550p would now present an issue, calculating with the threat of reversal to an initial 504p with our secondary, if beaten, at 475p and a hopeful rebound.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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