eyeQ: latest investment case for Glencore shares
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Is it time to buy this popular stock?
28th October 2025 10:49
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Glencore
Macro Relevance: 76%
Model Value: 299.44p
Fair Value Gap: +12.74% premium to model value
Data correct as at 28 October 2025. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
Mining giant Glencore (LSE:GLEN) reports earnings tomorrow. The long-term bull case for real assets remains strong and, as such, resource stocks such as Glencore should remain an integral part of investors’ portfolios.
From a macro perspective, however, this is not the best entry level. Rather the stock appears vulnerable to bad news. The eyeQ take is that the risk-reward favours waiting for pullbacks before putting cash to work.
First, notice that macro relevance is now above our threshold for a macro regime. For the first time in a while, big-picture stuff such as growth and inflation are the key drivers of the Glencore stock price.
While macro conditions have been improving, the pace has been modest. In the last month, eyeQ model value is up 3%. The stock price, meanwhile, has rallied further and faster and now sits almost 13% rich to the broad macro environment.
With its footprint across a wide range of traditional metals and minerals, its comparatively new focus on the energy transition, plus its role as a commodity trader, which means it benefits from market volatility as well as production, Glencore is well placed to capture some key investment themes going forward.
This is not your usual bear note; it’s more that macro is simply saying don’t chase this rally - wait for better levels.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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Disclosure
We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.
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