eyeQ: the Mag 7 stock that’s trading at a big discount
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. This tech giant screens as cheap.
7th May 2025 10:25
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Apple
Macro Relevance: 75%
Model Value:$219.88
Fair Value Gap: -10.76% discount to model value
Data correct as at 7 May 2025. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is back in a macro regime for the first time in eight months. Big-picture stuff such as the Federal Reserve, the dollar and interest rates have once again become a critical part of an investor’s decision on whether to own the stock.
And eyeQ has a bullish signal with the stock sitting around 10% below where macro conditions say it “should” trade.
The resurgence in macro’s importance makes sense. Apple is seen as particularly vulnerable to President Trump’s trade war. Several Asian countries are integral to its supply chain and the company has warned that tariffs could increase costs by as much as $900 million this quarter.
The cheap valuation also speaks to the trade-off between macro and micro viewpoints. From the bottom-up view, some are questioning company fundamentals givens sales in China fell 2% due to increased competition from local brands such as Huawei, while the delay in rolling out Apple Intelligence remains a concern.
But, from a pure macro perspective none of these issues have yet to impact eyeQ macro model value. It bounced hard (nearly 20%) over the second half of April and, even after last week’s earnings disappointment, model value remains around $220.
There are hopes that the US may announce some preliminary trade details with some countries (possibly the UK) as soon as this week; and that trade talks with China will start this weekend. Any good news on that front will encourage the market to de-emphasise the downside risks to global growth from tariffs.
At that point investors will be looking for quality companies that screen as cheap. And, on eyeQ, Apple fits that description.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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