eyeQ: are cheap Games Workshop shares a buy?
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Here's what it says about this FTSE 100 star.
29th July 2025 10:05
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Games Workshop
Macro Relevance: 43%
Model Value:16,229.84p
Fair Value Gap: -3.71% discount to model value
Data correct as at 29 July 2025. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
Games Workshop Group (LSE:GAW) have just produced great earnings and been rewarded with a strong rally.
In this instance macro and micro are aligned.
While company fundamentals were the catalyst for the rally, the stock ended last week 6.4% cheap on eyeQ. That wasn't quite big enough a Fair Value Gap to trigger a bullish signal. Moreover, a 43% macro relevance score is too low and prevents any official signal being fired. But the macro picture suggested the recent pullback in the stock price was starting to look overdone.
Today's bounce has narrowed that gap, but the stock still sits 3.7% cheap to aggregate macro conditions so there is potentially more upside.
Thereafter we need fresh direction from eyeQ model value. After strong gains over the last few months, it's flatlined over July. That's because the stock wants rising inflation (so it's benefitted from this latest mini inflation scare) but it also wants a stronger Pound. So the recent move in foreign exchange markets - with the dollar bouncing and Sterling falling - has been a macro drag.
Apart from robust earnings, bulls ideally want to see healthy reflation plus a stronger currency. That combination would suggest both the bottom-up and top-down view supports further upside.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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