eyeQ: time to check out of this global player
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. It thinks this stock could be overvalued.
15th May 2025 12:28
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Marriott International
Macro Relevance: 75%
Model Value: $251.67
Fair Value Gap:+7.68% premium to model value
Data correct as at 15 May 2025. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
Rodney Hobson's bottom-up analysis of Marriott International Inc Class A (NASDAQ:MAR) suggests the time is right to book profits. eyeQ's macro perspective shares a similar conclusion, albeit we've yet to trigger an official signal.
The stock sits 7.7% above our $251.67 model value - that leaves it rich, although it's not quite big enough a Fair Value Gap for our smart machine to generate a call-to-action. Still, the fact remains that the stock is expensive relative to macro conditions.
To get a signal we'd need to see two things:
- the stock to get slightly richer still
- macro momentum to start rolling over
eyeQ model value rose nearly 20% over the last month, thanks mainly to the improvement in credit markets. The bounce in the share price has been more aggressive still.
The risk scenario now is if recent gains in the credit markets stall, eyeQ macro model value starts to fall and the Fair Value Gap shows the stock as rich.
In short, Marriott appears to have a lot of good macro news already in the price. The FVG isn't quite extended enough to trigger a bear signal. Watching macro momentum is key going forward.
But, for those who agree with Rodney's company analysis, the macro view largely reaches the same conclusion. When top-down and bottom-up views align, it's a powerful combination.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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Disclosure
We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.
Please note that our article on this investment should not be considered to be a regular publication.
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