FTSE for Friday: why I'm excited about FTSE 100 in 2026
Despite some volatility and big losses on Wall Street, especially in the tech space, independent analyst Alistair Strang is optimistic about prospects for the UK blue-chip index.
14th November 2025 07:38
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
It will be party time if the FTSE 100 manages to wander above 10,179 points, a level which seems attainable, despite near-term dramatics.
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To explain, the Nasdaq managed to undo the Covid-19 drop of March 2020 in December of that year. The German DAX managed the same feat in September 2024, while Wall Street kicked the Covid damage in August 2024. The S&P 500 took until the end of 2022 and Australia still suffers from the artificial pandemic drop, needing above 9,890 points to depart the economic trauma imposed by Covid manipulation. Even Brazil, still suffers its own version of long Covid, needing above 171,300 points to free itself from the 2020 misery.
Judging by the behaviour of those markets which have broken above the arithmetic restrictions imposed by the worldwide synchronised Covid19 drop of March 2020, we’re almost excited for the FTSE 100 next year as things are certainly looking good.
For the near term, FTSE closure above 9,915 looks like being a big deal, calculating with the potential of a market lift to 9,977 points with our secondary, if bettered, calculating at 10,179. This secondary is a really big level, holding the implication the FTSE 100 shall have shuffled from “recovery” to “growth”, a Big Picture cycle which should lead to an initial 10,595, with our long-term secondary calculating at an impressive 10,877 points and some almost certain hesitation.
In other words, the signs in the tea leaves at the bottom of the cup indicate a potentially rather good 2026, at least until 10,877 points makes a guest appearance. We do currently have a bit of a problem, due to an inability to calculate above 10,877 with our FTSE data which extends back 40 years. For this reason, we’re essentially suggesting the UK has the potential for another 1,000 points above current levels, then things risk running out of steam.
From a near-term perspective, it seems likely weakness below 9,800 points shall trigger reversal to an initial 9,775 points with our secondary, if broken, at a less likely 9,650 points. Our paranoia is embracing the notion the market is enacting some reversals, prior to yet another upward surge. If things intend to get better, a near-term movement above 9,872 should tick the first box for a surprise change of direction, giving a reasonable stop loss level.
Have a good weekend!
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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